This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
3M Open Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads back to the United States following two weeks in Scotland for the sixth installment of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. With just two tournaments left in the regular season, it's a key stretch as players look to secure their spot in the FedExCup Playoffs. Tony Finau headlines as the tournament favorite at 11-1 odds and is one of nine players in the top-50 of the OWGR teeing-it-up. Last year, longshot Lee Hodges (80-1) captured his first Tour victory by seven shots over Martin Laird, J.T. Poston and Kevin Streelman.
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Course Overview
Par 71, 7,431 yards
These are the average rankings of 3M Open champions over its five-year history.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 28.6
- SG: Approach: 5.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 30.0
- SG: Putting: 18.4
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 9.2
- Driving Distance: 27.6
- Driving Accuracy: 25.0
We saw Hodges go low at 24-under last year and while there are plenty of birdie holes with five par-4s under 425 yards, trouble lurks as well with 13 holes having water come into play. As a result, accuracy is more of a premium off the tee as errant drives will be punished with penalty strokes or by the lengthy rough. As we can see from the stats above, iron play tends to be the key statistic with the winner ranking fourth or better in SG: Approach in four of the five years of the tournament. I'll look at those players that hit it well from 175-225 yards, with a lot of approach shots coming in that range. Overall, I think this is a good week to hone in on players that do well in bogey avoidance as the danger that awaits can lead to the occasional big number.
Twin Cities Titans
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Twin Cities (minimum two appearances).
- Lee Hodges: 67.1
- Tony Finau: 67.6
- Emiliano Grillo: 68.1
- J.T. Poston: 68.3
- Martin Laird: 68.4
Hodges will look to defend his title after running away with it last year, and he was also a respectable T16 here in 2022. He's done it through superior iron play, gaining over two strokes per round on approach both years. Hodges has had a decent year thus far, making the cut in eight of his last nine tournaments with three top-25s but is still looking for his first top-10 since last year's win. Another player that's shown some form here is Laird, as he's only shot over-par in one of his 10 rounds and finished T2 here last year. The veteran doesn't appear to be a threat to win anymore, but he's recorded a couple of top-10s this year and could pay off nicely as a cheap DFS option or on a placement bet.
Approach Artists
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Tony Finau: 1.20
- Tom Hoge: 0.99
- Doug Ghim: 0.79
- Ben Griffin: 0.76
- Kevin Yu: 0.72
Finau is the only player to appear on both lists as the 2022 event champion has been in excellent form with his irons, gaining shots on approach in nine of his last 10 tournaments. As a result, it's no wonder why he's the betting favorite especially considering he seems to often take advantage of the non-signature events. Diving a bit farther down the odds board we find Yu (75-1 odds), who is one of only five players to rank among the top-15 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach this season. The short game tends to often let the second-year Tour pro down, but he has managed four top-10s in 2024. Note that despite his mediocre T37 finish in his debut here a year ago, he was second in SG: Tee-to-Green.
3M Open Bets: Outright Picks
Akshay Bhatia (20-1)
Over his last two stateside starts, only a total of five golfers have beaten Bhatia as he's making a strong case to make the Presidents Cup team this fall. He's gaining 0.82 strokes per round with his ball striking and is often in contention on his good putting weeks.
Sahith Theegala (22-1)
Theegala probably won't be a popular pick this week considering he's missed all three of his cuts in the Twin Cities. He's also oddly putted terribly each time (usually a strength of his) and is playing at a higher level than any of those previous trips. He finished T4 at the Scottish Open two weeks ago.
Emiliano Grillo (60-1)
After a strong start to the year, Grillo hasn't posted a top-25 since Bay Hill in March. A good way to snap out of that is visiting a place where you have three top-10s in four trips. He's also gained strokes with his ball striking in six straight tournaments.
3M Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Ryo Hisatsune (6-1)
The 21-year-old rookie is still looking for his first top-10 of the year, which is surprising for someone that's 55th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He should be a good course fit for TPC Twin Cities as an accurate driver and above average iron player.
Adam Schenk (8-1)
I know it has been a rough stretch for Schenk, but he's shown signs of life recently, gaining over a stroke per round on approach over his last two tournaments and was fifth in the category here last year.
Zac Blair (10-1)
Blair has quietly played well over the past couple months, making the cut in both majors he appeared in and then lost in a playoff two weeks ago in the ISCO Championship in which he was second in SG: Approach. He finished T13 in his 3M Open debut last year.
3M Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Keith Mitchell (-115) over Taylor Pendrith
Mitchell has played well in the Twin Cities, posting consecutive top-5 finishes and led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee here in 2021. Pendrith has been in good form but his inaccuracy with driver will likely get him into trouble. He missed the cut in his 3M Open debut last year.
Austin Eckroat (-110) over Sam Stevens
I generally lean towards the better ball strikers in matchups, and Eckroat is 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 18th in approach, while Stevens is 143rd in approach and the less accurate of the two with driver. I don't think the course fit sets up well for Stevens. Although it doesn't seem to happen often, if Eckroat can have a decent putting week, I wouldn't be surprised if he's in contention.
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