2024 the Memorial Tournament Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

2024 the Memorial Tournament Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

This article is part of our Golf Picks series.

 The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

This week the PGA Tour heads to Dublin, Ohio, for the annual Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, hosted by Jack Nicklaus. The signature event kicks off a busy stretch of the summer that precedes next week's U.S. Open and features a 73-player field headlined by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at +400 to win. The event will have a 36-hole cut down to the top-50 players and ties as well as anyone within 10 shots of the lead.

Last year, Viktor Hovland -- at 20-1 -- defeated Denny McCarthy on the first playoff hole for his fourth Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday 

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Course Overview

Par 72, 7,569 yards 

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Memorial Tournament Winners since 2019

  • SG: Off-the-Tee: 6.4
  • SG: Approach: 11.2
  • SG: Around-the-Green: 8.6
  • SG: Putting: 13.8
  • SG: Tee to-Green: 3.4
  • Driving Distance: 19.6
  • Driving Accuracy: 29.2

Muirfield Village has traditionally been one of the toughest tests on Tour as the winner hasn't bested 13-under in four straight years despite the course having four par-5s. Those are typically the only holes that will play under-par, and the venue is known for its difficult finish with the three toughest holes typically being 16-18. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately wide fairways that are surrounded by lengthy rough as well as water in play on half of the par-4s/5s. Despite the length of the course with just three par-4s under 450 yards, accuracy is crucial due to the penalty of errant tee shots. Tee to green play stands out from the stats above, with the winner leading the field in the category in three of the last four years. That lines up with the course testing all facets of one's game.

Muirfield Masters

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Muirfield Village since 2019.

Two-time Memorial champion Cantlay tops the list, and he's recorded a top-10 in five of his eight trips to Muirfield Village. Although the T30 last year was disappointing, he faded late after holding the 36-hole lead. It's certainly been a quiet year for Cantlay with just a pair of top-10s across 12 starts, but I like the value on him at 25-1 to get things turned around this week. Not too far behind him on the betting board is Homa at 40-1 odds, and he's shown form in Columbus with finishes of T6 and T5 over his last two appearances. He's coming off his worst ball striking week of the year at Colonial two weeks ago, but with three top-10s over his last eight starts, one would think this would be a good place for him to get back on track. 

Tee-to-Green Titans

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

The only player to appear on both lists is Scheffler, and it's unheard of to see a player gaining over a full stroke more from tee to green than the third ranked player in Morikawa. Last year, Scheffler put on a clinic from tee to green by gaining over five shots per round in the category but ranked dead last in putting to finish one shot out of the playoff. Another player that's been excellent in the category this season is Matsuyama, as he only trails Scheffler and Schauffele. The main question with him tends to be his health, as he's only played three times since the beginning of April, most recently returning from a back injury at the PGA Championship, where he finished T35. If Matsuyama is at 100 percent, he would provide great value at 40-1 odds.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Outright Bets

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

Morikawa has been trending in an excellent direction since the Masters with six straight top-25 finishes including back-to-back top-5s. With a win at the Workday Chartiy Open at Muirfield Village in 2020 and a runner-up at the Memorial in 2021, he's a great candidate to win this week.

Russell Henley (45-1)

At a place where it's imperative to be in the fairway, Henley stands out by ranking seventh in driving accuracy this year. He's also top-40 in SG: Approach, around the green and putting. The four-time Tour winner has three top-5s this year.

Byeong Hun An (50-1)

An had a mediocre showing at Valhalla but how quickly some forget that he had top-5s in his previous two starts. He lost in a playoff here in 2018, and the game is in much better form now. An is third in driving distance this season while still being top-100 in accuracy. 

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Other Wagers

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Top-10 Finish: 6-1

Bezuidenhout is one of the shorter hitters on Tour, but he does everything else well and as long as he drives it straight, he should be set up well for success. Ranking 17th in SG: Total this season, he's one of the most underrated golfers out there. Bezuidenhout has been in contention for top-10s often this year with six top-20s over 13 starts. 

Matt Fitzpatrick
Top-5 Finish: 9-1

Fitzpatrick seems to thrive under difficult conditions, so it's no surprise to see results of solo third and T9 at the event. Even in what many would call a down year, he's gaining shots in every strokes gained category and finished fifth at The PLAYERS.

Adam Schenk 
Top-10 Finish: 10-1

Schenk has been dialed in with his irons at Muirfield Village, ranking fifth in SG: Approach in 2022 and sixth last year en route to a top-10 finish. He withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge due to a back injury in his last start but this is excellent value if he's back to full strength. 

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Si Woo Kim (-120) over Tony Finau

Kim has shown a liking to the venue with with four consecutive top-20s including a career-best fourth place result last year in which he was second in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's a much more accurate driver than Finau, who has seen a significant decline in his SG: Off-the-Tee stats over the last two seasons. 

Sepp Straka (-110) over Keegan Bradley

Straka recorded his second top-20 at Muirfield Village last year, where he impressed with his iron play by ranking fourth in SG: Approach. He's also started to heat up over the past couple months with six top-20s over his last eight starts. Bradley is rounding into form himself but hasn't played well at the venue, failing to record a top-25 in his last six appearances.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Pohle
Ryan Pohle is a DFS Product Specialist at RotoWire and has written for the site since 2020.
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