This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
U.S. Open Betting Preview
The third major championship of the year is upon us as the golf world heads to North Carolina for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. Scottie Scheffler headlines the list of storylines as the tournament favorite at 3-1 odds, and he'll be looking for his sixth win in nine starts. 13 LIV golfers are also teeing-it-up, while Rory McIlroy continues to try to end his 10-year major drought. Last year, longshot Wyndham Clark (70-1 odds) defeated McIlroy by one shot for his first major trophy.
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Event Breakdown
Par 70, 7,543 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: U.S. Open Champions since 2019
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 6.6
- SG: Approach: 14.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 13.0
- SG: Putting: 17.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.0
- Driving Distance: 9.8
- Driving Accuracy: 20.6
Not every venue that the USGA visits for its flagship event plays the same, but we can see from the stats above that U.S. Open courses tend to test every aspect of one's game. Martin Kaymer won the last time the event was held at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014, although we don't have any strokes gained data from that event. The course is very long for a par 70 with six par-4s playing over 480 yards. However, the course is expected to play fast and firm, so it won't play quite as long as advertised. Off the tee, players are faced with generous landing zones as the fairways average 40 yards wide. That will put more of an emphasis on iron play and the short game. The green complexes have a lot of runoff areas, so precision will be key. I think short-game specialists should do well here, as players will have trouble hitting greens in regulation at a high percentage. Bogey avoidance will also be key as only three players shot under-par 10 years ago.
U.S. Open Success
The following players have the lowest scoring average at the U.S. Open since 2019.
- Scottie Scheffler: 69.8
- Rory McIlroy: 69.9
- Min Woo Lee: 70.0
- Wyndham Clark: 70.1
- Jon Rahm: 70.2
- Xander Schauffele: 70.2
There aren't many tournaments Scheffler hasn't found consistent success at, and U.S. Open venues are no exception. He's finished no worse than T7 over the last three years. What can be said about him that hasn't already been said? He's by far and away the man to beat every week, and the only potential cause for concern, as minor as it may be, is that he hasn't won a major outside of Augusta. One player you might not expect to see on this list is Lee (70-1 odds), who with five top-25s in majors at just 25-years-old, clearly has the game to elevate on the biggest stage. The long-hitter finished T5 and LACC last year and his game appears to be rounding into form with three top-25s over his last four starts.
Impressive Iron Play
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.73
- Corey Conners: 1.22
- Xander Schauffele: 1.06
- Sepp Straka: 1.03
- Tony Finau: 1.00
Conners has been in excellent form with his iron play recently, ranking second in SG: Approach at Quail Hollow and fourth at Valhalla, leaving him trailing only Scheffler in the category on the season. He's yet to make a cut at the U.S. Open, although he's putted horrifically badly the last three years. If he can clean that area up, he could work his way into contention at value odds of 80-1. The other long shot on this list is Straka -- listed at 75-1 -- and he's been in strong form since THE PLAYERS with a top-20 finish in seven of his last nine starts. The iron play has been key as he's gained over a stroke per round on approach in five of the last six tournaments. Coming off back-to-back top-5s, I'd argue that Straka is playing the best golf of his career.
U.S. Open Bets: Outright Picks
Brooks Koepka (22-1)
Bettors have soured on Koepka due to underperforming in the first two majors of the year, but the difficult setup should favor him much more than Valhalla did. He also closed with the lowest round at LIV Houston on Sunday, so the game is in good form.
Matt Fitzpatrick (45-1)
As I mentioned last week with Fitzpatrick, difficult venues seem to bring the best out of him. He's elevated his game in majors with three top-10s since 2022, most notably winning the U.S. Open at The Country Club two years ago. He's peaking at the right time.
Tom Kim (80-1)
Kim is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour (13th this season) and keeping it in the fairway should help him stay out of trouble. He closed strong in Canada to finish T4 two weeks ago and was fourth in SG: Approach at last year's U.S. Open, where he finished T8.
U.S. Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Sam Burns (5-1)
Coming off a good week last week with a top-10 on Christiaan Bezuidenhout and a top-5 on Fitzpatrick, I'll start this week with Burns. I like his steady all-around game in which he's top-50 in distance and accuracy, 34th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 54th in putting.
Alex Noren (13-2)
There aren't many golfers that have had as consistent of a season as Noren, as he's posted nine top-25s over his last 10 starts. He's played well at a variety of courses, and his ability to stay out of trouble (third in bogey avoidance this year) will come in handy at Pinehurst.
Billy Horschel (9-1)
Horschel's game at this time a year ago was in a bad spot, but he's had a resurgent 2024. He won in Punta Cana in April and has followed that up with three consecutive top-25s including a top-10 at Valhalla.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Ludvig Aberg (-120) over Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau is having an excellent season both on LIV and in the majors, but this isn't a place where he's going to be able to bomb his way to victory like he did at Winged Foot. Outside of distance, Aberg is slightly better in every aspect of the game. With a top-10 in six of his last 10 starts, Aberg is an excellent target for matchup bets.
Byeong Hun An (-120) over Jason Day
You have to go five starts back to find a tournament Day has beaten An in, which isn't all that surprising considering An has a pair of top-5s over his last four starts. Day has also cooled off following a solid start to the year with just one top-10 over his last nine starts. He's really struggled with his iron play (145th in SG: Approach), which will put a lot of pressure on his short game.
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