3M Open Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads back stateside as the regular season begins to wind down, with one final event in the Midwest for this week's 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. Most of the top players will take the next two weeks off to rest up for the FedExCup Playoffs, but we still have 13 of the top 50 players in the OWGR in a field that is headlined by co-favorites Chris Gotterup and Sam Burns at 18-1 odds.
Last year, Jhonattan Vegas -- at 60-1 -- broke a seven-year winless drought with a one stroke victory over Max Greyserman for his fourth Tour title.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Tuesday.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,431 yards
These are the average rankings of 3M Open champions since 2020:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 25.8
- SG: Approach: 7.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 36.6
- SG: Putting: 11.4
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 10.4
- Driving Distance: 28.2
- Driving Accuracy: 20.0
The Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities makes it feel like we're back in the Florida Swing with all the water that's in play as there are only five holes that players won't have to worry about it. Off the tee, players are faced with fairways that average a reasonable 35 yards wide, but water is in play on eight driving holes and four-inch rough puts a premium on accuracy over distance. If you're able to avoid the trouble, there are scoring opportunities available with 11 of the 18 holes playing under par last year and the back-nine being the easier of two. We can see from the metrics above that iron play is a key statistic here, and players will face a lot of approach shots in the 175-225 yard range. Overall this is a place I'm looking to avoid golfers that are really wayward off the tee, strong iron players, and I'll also look at bogey avoidance as we'll see some low numbers but also some high ones with trouble lurking often.
Twin City Scorers
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at TPC Twin Cities over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Alex Noren: 67.4
- Tony Finau: 67.7
- Jhonattan Vegas: 67.9
- Emiliano Grillo: 68.2
- Cameron Champ: 68.3
A list with three past champions included, it's Noren who is at the top with his results of T3 and T13. He's done it with elite putting, gaining 1.31 strokes per round on the greens and has yet to record an over-par round at the event. Something will have to give between Noren's course history and current form, as struggles with his long game in his return from injury has led to missed cuts in each of his last three full field starts. Meanwhile, there aren't many venues that Champ has played better at, as he followed up his 2021 win with back-to-back top-20s. The driver continues to be his bread-and-butter, where he's gaining 0.91 strokes off the tee per round through nine PGA Tour starts this year. Champ has posted a top-20 in three of his last five events and is getting respect from the oddsmakers at 50-1.
Iron Play Specialists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Akshay Bhatia: 1.14
- Victor Perez: 0.94
- Ben Kohles: 0.92
- Lee Hodges: 0.84
- Si Woo Kim: 0.83
Bhatia headlines the list by a decent margin and while his results have taken a step back following a strong start to the year, his iron play has been in excellent form. The 23-year-old ranks 16th in SG: Approach but his around the green play has held him back. That should be less of a factor on a relatively easy course, making Bhatia a solid target at 40-1 odds. 2023 event champion Hodges pops up on the list having gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments. He ranked second in the category at the event in 2022 and was first in 2023 before badly missing the cut last year. Hodges has been a bit boom-or-bust this year with seven missed cuts and three top-10s, and I like him as a solid longshot to keep an eye on at 70-1.
3M Open Bets: Outright Picks
Taylor Pendrith (30-1)
I'll pivot away from the top handful of favorites and go with Pendrith, who posted three rounds of 67 or better and led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee in finishing solo fifth. After picking up his maiden win last year, he's posted four top-10s thus far in 2025.
Kurt Kitayama (40-1)
Kitayama needs a big week at 110th in the FedExCup Standings. He's had an awful year on the greens, but he's 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th from tee to green. He also has two top-5s since May and ranked fifth in SG: Approach here last year en route to a T6 finish.
Doug Ghim (80-1)
Ghim has a solid track record at the event, finishing T27 or better in four of five appearances. He held the first round lead at the John Deere a couple weeks ago, and we've seen several surprise winners here. I think Ghim's capable of keeping that trend going if he can find some rare form with the flat stick.
3M Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Andrew Putnam (5-1)
Putnam has been trending in a positive direction this summer with top-10s in Canada and Detroit and is coming off a T11 in Tahoe last week. Combine that with top-20s in his last two trips to the Twin Cities and we have ourselves a solid placement bet target.
Max McGreevy (7-1)
McGreevy makes for an ideal course fit as an accurate driver and solid long iron player. The third-year Tour pro is coming off a top-5 at the Barracuda to match his best result of the season. He was 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green when he last teed it up here in 2023.
Steven Fisk (11-1)
Fisk is a solid ball striker, ranking top-40 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach this season, which isn't something you'd expect from someone with these long of odds. The PGA Tour rookie has one top-10 this year -- a T4 finish in Puerto Rico.
3M Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sam Stevens (-110) over Vince Whaley
Whaley has missed both of his cuts in Minnesota while Stevens is 2-for-2 including a top-10 two years ago. One of the things that could get Whaley into trouble on this water heavy course is that he ranks in the bottom-20 in driving accuracy this year. Stevens is the superior ball striker of the two, and he's made 13 of his last 14 cuts, making him a reliable target in matchups.
Kevin Roy (-110) over Haotong Li
Li will be making his first start in the U.S. in over three years, and it's asking a lot for him to follow up his top-5 last week while also adjusting time zones. He's always shown upside but inconsistency, which isn't what I like for this type of bet. Roy didn't make the trip over to Europe and has posted three top-20s over his last five starts. He's the safe option here.
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