Wyndham Championship Betting Preview
The final regular season event of the year is upon us at the PGA Tour heads to Greensboro, North Carolina, for the annual Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club. The top-70 players in the FedExCup Standings following the event will qualify for next week's first playoff event and secure their card for next year. Matt Fitzpatrick (20-1 odds) headlines the field as the tournament favorite and is one of four players in the top-25 of the OWGR teeing-it-up. Last year, Aaron Rai (40-1) captured his first Tour victory by two strokes over Max Greyserman.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,131 yards
These are the average rankings of Wyndham Championship winners since 2020:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.8
- SG: Approach: 6.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 46.0
- SG: Putting: 11.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 10.0
- Driving Distance: 56.4
- Driving Accuracy: 9.4
Heading back to the east coast, this Donald Ross design has all the feelings of an old-school golf course with it's tree-lined fairways that rewards accuracy much more than distance as outlined in the stats above. We can also see that iron play tends to be a key metric, as the champion has led the field in SG: Approach in back-to-back years. There are a good mixture of holes here as 10 of them played over-par last year, with the two par-5s being the clear scoring opportunities in addition to three par-4s that play under 410 yards. The fairways average less than 30 yards wide and those narrow landing zones surrounded by tricky rough further emphasizes hitting the ball straight and will often take driver out of a player's hands. Ideally, I'm looking to target accurate drivers, good iron players (especially those from 125-175 yards) and golfers that rank well in par-4 scoring.
Sedgefield Superstars
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Sedgefield Country Club over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Byeong Hun An: 66.6
- Webb Simpson: 66.9
- Kevin Kisner: 67.1
- Sungjae Im: 67.1
- Ben Griffin: 67.7
An will be making his sixth appearance at the Wyndham (interestingly he's played it every other year since his debut in 2015), most recently finishing two back in 2023 and was also two short in 2019. He's gaining 0.88 strokes on approach across 18 career rounds at the event but something will have to give between his success at the course and current form as he's posted just two top-20s over his last 12 events. Another player that's shown an affinity for Sedgefield is Griffin, who is looking to solidify his spot on the Ryder Cup. This should be a good place to do just that as he's shot 65 or better four times across 10 rounds. Griffin (25-1 odds) is looking to bounce back from back-to-back missed cuts, and a return stateside and a week off should be a good spot to do just that.
Approach Artists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Ben Kohles: 1.17
- Kurt Kitayama: 1.08
- Victor Perez: 0.92
- Akshay Bhatia: 0.92
- Lucas Glover: 0.81
At 151st in the FedExCup Standings, Kohles probably isn't the guy you'd expect to find at the top of this list, but he's gained over a stroke per round on approach in four of his last five tournaments. That's helped lead to his two best results of the season during that stretch, but his dreadful short game is a big reason why he's 150-1. Meanwhile, Bhatia is looking to rebound after a disastrous final round in which he plummeted from sharing the 54-hole lead at the 3M to finishing T25. Nevertheless, it was his best result since the Memorial nearly two months ago, and his precision off the tee should be a better fit this week. Bhatia is also one of the better putters in the field and a solid target as tied for the eighth choice on the board at 35-1.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Jake Knapp (40-1)
Coming off a win with Kitayama at 40-1 last week, I'll start this week off with arguably the hottest player in this field in Knapp. He has a pair of top-5s over his last four starts, including his T3 at TPC Twin Cities last week. His combination of elite driving while also turning into an excellent putter bodes very well for him to continue to get into contention often.
Emiliano Grillo (65-1)
Grillo fits Sedgefield perfectly as a short but precise driver combined with strong iron play. He lost in a playoff at the John Deere earlier this month, so he's clearly playing well enough to win. He's coming off a top-20 at the 3M last week as well.
Chris Kirk (90-1)
Kirk has played reasonably well here with a best result of T11 in 2018. Just like Grillo, he lost in a playoff this summer and is coming off a good result in Minnesota, making him a great value at 90-1. Kirk's lack of distance puts him at a disadvantage at a lot of places, but this is one he can be a factor at.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Rico Hoey (5-1)
Hoey has been dominant from tee to green this season, ranking sixth in the category. The problem is that he's losing over a stroke per round on the greens. He putted well here last year en route to a T22 result.
Kevin Roy (15-2)
Roy is coming off a respectable T28 at TPC Twin Cities in which he tied for the lowest final round. Combine that momentum with two top-10s over the last month and we have ourselves a solid under the radar value.
Adam Svensson (10-1)
Svensson has never missed the cut here in four appearances including back-to-back top-10s, which is uncommon for someone with these long of odds. He's had a disappointing year but his T14 last week was his best result of the year.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Rickie Fowler (-115) over J.T. Poston
A matchup between two players trending in opposite directions, I'll side with the more consistent Fowler who has recorded five top-20s across his last nine starts. Poston is a past champion here but tends to be boom-or-bust with four missed cuts since 2018, and loyal readers know that's something I like to avoid in matchup bets.
Kevin Yu (-110) over Andrew Novak
Novak was getting Ryder Cup hype this spring but has failed to record a top-10 in eight consecutive starts as his ball striking numbers have failed to keep pace. As a result, I'll side with Yu in this head-to-head, who ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 34th in approach this year. He can make birdies in bunches when he's hot and is the midst of the best year of his career.
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