DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Hero World Challenge Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

HERO WORLD CHALLENGE

Purse: $5M 
Winner's Share: $1M 
FedExCup Points: 0
Location: New Providence, the Bahamas 
Course: Albany Golf Course
Yardage: 7,449 
Par: 72
2023 champion: Scottie Scheffler

Tournament Preview

It was about a year ago when Tiger Woods stated that his goal was to play once a month during the PGA Tour season. He didn't quite get there, making five starts in a six-month period. He made one cut. At this point in Woods' career, the expectations couldn't be much lower -- not necessarily from him but from all of us.

And yet when Woods announced last week that he wouldn't be playing in his Hero World Challenge -- thanks to a sixth surgery on his back three months ago -- the disappointment across social media was evident.

The next opportunity to see Woods in a PGA Tour event presumably will be at his other tournament, the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in February. By then, Woods will be 49 years old and within striking distance of the senior tour. Oh, where has the time gone?

Woods has never been the same since his critical one-car accident in Los Angeles almost four years ago. He's played only 11 OWGR events since then, only one of which was the Hero, which was last year. He finished 18th out of 20, a full 20 shots behind winner Scottie Scheffler.

So even though Woods most likely could not contend for the title this year, it's always great when he plays and, for a tournament that always brought out golf's A-list, this year's field could've used all the help it could get.

Only three of the top-10 in the world are on hand, led by Scheffler. There's no Rory McIlroy, no Xander Schauffele, no Jordan Spieth, no Collin Morikawa, no Viktor Hovland, and on and on. And of course, none of the big names from LIV Golf. Instead, there are such names as Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon and Russell Henley. Fine players all, but hardly needle-movers. More than half the 20-man field is ranked outside the top-20 in the world. 

The Hero is a quirky event, which never makes lineup construction easy. It's fair to wonder how hard everyone actually tries to win in this island paradise, especially just a week after Thanksgiving. Oh, maybe once the tournament gets going the competitive spirit kicks in, but it's not like preparing for a major or even a regular PGA Tour event. Often, golfers return from weeks or even months of idleness.

Last year, half the field finished 10 or more shots behind Scheffler. Will Zalatoris, returning from his own back surgery, was a eye-popping 31 shots back. So even though the competitive spirit may kick in, it appears to be easily lost once the deficit increases. One thing we know for sure is that Scheffler won't mail it in, not ever, having finished runner-up here twice in the two years prior to his win.

The Hero was always been a bit of a cash grab (not so much anymore with signature events around). But more than cash, it has been an OWGR points grab. Yes, this is an OWGR-sanctioned event, something that no doubt rankles the LIV bots. We're not a fan of very valuable OWGR points being handed out to the top golfers just for showing up -- the rich getting richer -- but at least with the OWGR system being overhauled last year, this small-field tournament doesn't generate anywhere near the number of points it used to. While the Hero is listed under the PGA Tour's schedule page, it is not a Tour event and there are no FedEx Cup points distributed.

Eight of the 20 on hand this week have never played the Hero before, perhaps suggesting that Woods had to go further down his invitation list than he would've liked. That doesn't mean you should discount those eight; Hovland won in his debut in 2021, as did Jon Rahm in 2018.

The Ernie Els design is a rare layout with five par-5s and five par-3s. There are only three par-4s on the front-nine. Weird, huh? Albany features wide fairways and Bermudagrass greens averaging only 4,500 square feet. The golfers have talked about the tight lies around the greens, so getting on the putting surface from the fairway is especially important. But it's no easy task with the small greens. There are three water hazards covering five holes and, often, plenty of wind. Three of the par-5s are over 590 yards and four of the par-3s are about 190-plus.

Yet the scores are always low, with 18-under winning it five years in a row until Hovland shot 16-under two years ago and Scheffler reached 20-under a year ago. The tournament record at Albany is 25-under, set by Bubba Watson in 2015. The golfers have talked about having to do the bulk of the scoring on seven holes -- the five par-5s and two of the par-4s, the semi-drivable 366-yard 7th and the definitely drivable 307-yard 14th. Last year, Scheffler played those seven holes in 15-under.

Focusing on lineup construction, there are a few things to consider. First, with only 20 golfers, every guy will have at least moderate ownership. Don't go crazy trying to find a hidden guy -- no one is hidden this week. Some guys have been inactive for much of the fall, others have been busy. But that shouldn't be too much of a consideration. Really, at least 15 guys have at least a shot at winning this tournament. And it won't take much for anyone to climb the leaderboard with so few guys to pass. Don't fear the $6,000s, even the lowest of them.

As for the weather, high temperatures will be in the upper-70s all four days, with almost zero chance of rain and moderate wind forecast. We'll believe the moderate wind part when we see it. 

Key Stats to Winning at Albany

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Par-5 Scoring 
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage

Past Champions

2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Viktor Hovland
2021 - Viktor Hovland
2020 - None
2019 - Henrik Stenson 
2018 - Jon Rahm 
2017 - Rickie Fowler
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama 
2015 - Bubba Watson
2014 - Jordan Spieth 

Champion's Profile

Scheffler dominated last year in defeating Sepp Straka by three, with only three other guys even within five shots. He shot 20-under, the highest score in years at a tournament where the upper teens has usually been the winner's total.

Scheffler ranked second in driving distance and fairways hits, fourth in SG: Approach, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and even sixth in SG: Putting. Justin Thomas finished third despite ranking 16th in the field in putting, which can't be that critical (at least that not critical to finishing third!).

As we mentioned, 15-under of Scheffler's 20-under came on seven holes -- the five par-5s and the two shorter par-4s. The 20 total par-5s go a long way in determining who wins.

There is no rough at Albany, but wayward drives will land the golfers in the native area. Sometimes that's trouble, but oftentimes it's just fine.

With a field this small, any golfer on form who takes this week seriously has a chance to win. Unfamiliarity with the Albany course should not be a big issue for the eight newcomers.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $11,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +220)
Scheffler is $1,700 clear of the second guy on the DraftKings board, Patrick Cantlay, and it's fair to wonder whether that's enough. The defending champion also finished runner-up the two previous years. If there's one thing about Scheffler that's not true of everyone else, it's that he always plays to the whistle, never giving an inch even if he's seemingly out of it. As if you need any statistical evidence, Scheffler ranked second on Tour in 2024 in par-5 birdie or better. (Give yourself a hand if you knew S.H. Kim was first!)

$9,000-$9,900

Justin Thomas - $9,600 (+1000) 
Thomas has played this tournament five times and finished in the top-5 the past three, including a best of third a year ago. He is fueled here by a deep respect for his close friend Woods. Iron accuracy is more important than putting, which is right up Thomas' alley.

$8,000-$8,900

Wyndham Clark - $8,000 (+1800) 
Clark did not have a good Hero a year ago, when he finished in 19th place, a whopping 22 shots behind Scheffler and even nine shots behind Woods. Only Zalatoris, recovering from back surgery, was worse. But Clark is No. 6 in the world for a reason. In seven starts ending with the TOUR Championship, Clark had four top-10s and two more top-15s.

$7,000-$7,900

Sungjae Im - $7,800 (+1400)
Im made is Hero debut a year ago with a tie for eighth. He turned around his season from June onward, finishing inside the top-15 in seven of his past nine starts, including at the ZOZO in Japan at the end of October. Im ranked 22nd on Tour this past season in par-5 birdie or better.

Sahith Theegala - $7,300 (+2200) 
Making his Hero debut, Theegala will want to make a good showing (that doesn't mean he will). He ranked 31st on Tour in par-5 birdie or better in 2024.

$6,000-$6,900

Keegan Bradley - $6,500 (+3000)
Bradley has played the Hero six times, as much as anyone else in the field, though only twice in the past decade. He did play the tournament last year, tying for 13th. There should be zero fear in picking guys in the $6000s; they don't have to pass many guys to make themselves a bargain.

Nick Dunlap - $6400 (+3500) 
Dunlap is another guy who won't treat this week as a hit-and-giggle. A year ago, he couldn't imagine himself being in the position he's in and no doubt would like nothing better to make Woods take notice. Dunlap has been one of the busier players in this field during the fall, and he ranked an elite eighth on Tour in 2024 in par-5 birdie or better.

Matthieu Pavon - $6000 (+8000) 
Pavon is the lowest-priced guy for a reason -- he's been terrible ever since June. But there's not much downside picking the cheapest guy in a field of 20. If Pavon takes this week seriously -- and he should, getting an invite from Woods -- he should justify his price.

Wondering where to wager on the Hero World Challenge? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes!