DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Masters Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE MASTERS

Purse: $20M 
Winner's Share: $3.5M 
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner 
Location: Augusta, Ga. 
Course: Augusta National Golf Club 
Yardage: 7,545 
Par: 72
2022 champion: Scottie Scheffler

Tournament Preview

There are always so many storylines entering the Masters. This year, it's impossible to not notice there are more than usual. And depending on what happens this week, the 87th Masters could be the most seismic golf tournament of our lifetime.

• Let's ease into things gently and start with Tiger Woods, because anytime Woods shows up anywhere, it starts with him. This will be only his second tournament of the year and, if it were just up to his golf game and not his forever-altered right leg and ankle, he'd be one of the favorites to win a sixth Green Jacket. But he's not a favorite.
• The favorites are the jockeying trio atop the Official World Golf Ranking. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm have all held he No. 1 OWGR position in 2023, and if one of them wins this week, they will again be No. 1. Right now, Scheffler -- the defending champion -- holds the top spot.
• The ongoing distance debate flared mightily in the past month, with the U.S. Golf Association and the Royal and Ancient Golf Club announcing plans to roll back the golf ball to blunt distance beginning in 2026. Proponents and detractors have been speaking their minds on the contentious issue -- loudly. Augusta National has been grappling for years with how to keep their golf course a stern test for today's golfers with all the modern technological advances. Last year, they lengthened two holes, including the par-5 15th; this year, they have done likewise with the par-5 13th and it could go a long way in determining this year's outcome. When Augusta National Chairman Fred Ridley holds his annual news conference on Wednesday, he almost surely has to address the rollback. His voice will carry much weight. If a third major -- after the two Opens -- backs the rollback, it could tip the scales in this hot-tempered debate. And yet, that is not even the most fiery storyline of the week.
• Yes, there is one more storyline of note, one so potentially explosive that we should add a gif of someone eating popcorn right here. The legal battle between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf shifts from the courtroom to the golf course this week, when 18 LIV players will tee it up alongside their former fellow PGA Tour members for the first time since they left for the breakaway circuit beginning last summer. Ridley took the lead in December, when he said LIV golfers who qualify for the Masters would be welcome. We will see some of them at all the majors. At the forefront is Phil Mickelson, whose comments on Saudi Arabia last year were so inflammatory that the three-time Masters champion didn't even play in the tournament last April -- and then he didn't defend his historic PGA Championship victory a month later.

Since there are so many LIV players in the smallish field of 88, which includes seven amateurs and seven "legacy" champions, it will be virtually impossible for them not to be interwoven with their former Tour mates, some of whom have voiced pointed takes on the new league. That begins on Tuesday night at Scheffler's Champions Dinner, at which six of the LIV golfers -- Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson and Mickelson -- will attend as former Masters winners.

But what happens Thursday through Sunday will ultimately be more important and potentially future-altering. Despite all the kumbaya talk among the golfers that they are all pals -- and there's no reason to doubt that -- there are some real consequences at state this week, as Jay Monahan and Greg Norman know all too well. Norman couldn't ask for anything more than one of his guys -- Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Johnson, Reed? -- winning to add legitimacy to his struggling outfit. Conversely, Monahan's worst nightmare would be a LIV victory, one that would put a dent in all the efforts the PGA Tour has made over the past year to blunt the impact of LIV. The legal process between the two tours continues on both sides of the Atlantic, and that may alter future major eligibility. But for now, they come together for the first of four weeks of majors this year.

That's all on the politics of the golf world for now. It's Masters week!

We would like to point out that Woods and Mickelson, who have dominated the Masters over the past quarter-century with eight titles between them, will be in the field together at Augusta National for the first time in three years.

Neither will likely figure in the outcome. Rather, there are maybe only a dozen or so golfers with a legitimate chance to don the Green Jacket come Sunday night. It's entirely possible that some combination of Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm -- today's titans of golf -- will be in the mix.

Scheffler is looking to put a hammerlock on his No.1 ranking and become the first golfer since Woods in 2001-02 to successfully defend a Masters title and only the third in the past six decades (more on that in a minute). No. 2 McIlroy will make his ninth attempt to complete the career Grand Slam. Rahm, who just last month looked like he was about to put a stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking, has fallen to third and will also be looking for his first Masters title.

Woods and Mickelson? Well, just making the cut would be a gift for many golf fans, to see them for four days instead of two. We suspect one of them will do that. To see where Woods, Mickelson and everyone else fit into our thinking, check out our RotoWire Majors Value Meter, in which we rank every golfer in the field.

Besides the big three of Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm, there aren't very many guys with a legitimate chance to win this week. Oh, it happens from time to time, but those are the outliers and the chalk generally rules at Augusta National. Right behind those three, two-time champion Jordan Spieth will be a favorite, along with Smith of LIV, plus non-major winners in Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im. Other major champs with a legitimate shot are Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and maybe even Jason Day.

Of the top 50 players in the world rankings, 49 are on hand. If we exclude the 14 total amateurs and long-ago champions, who have little chance to impact the tournament and probably not even make the cut, that leaves 74 to consider. The top 50 plus ties will make the cut -- in other words more than two-thirds of them -- meaning getting all six golfers in your lineups through to the weekend in DFS will be mathematically easier than ever, not to mention absolutely mandatory.

Augusta National has been changed for this year, lengthened 35 yards to 7,545 on the scorecard. It's just one hole, but don't discount the impact. The par-5 13th hole, generally the easiest hole on the course, has gone from 510 to 545 with the tee box being moved back 35 yards. Early word from the course is that 13 will really take on a different complexion, an important development for golfers looking for a breather as they exit the dastardly three-hole stretch that is Amen Corner. The change follows two others from last year, when tee at the par-4 11th was moved back 15 yards, making the hole play 520, and the tee at the par-5 15th was moved back 20 yards, making it 550. The desired effect took hold, as there were zero eagles on 15 last year. The course almost always plays longer than its yardage, making it uber-long (now 7,900ish?), but it will take a lot more than sheer length to win this week.

The 1933 Bobby Jones/Alister MacKenzie design usually ranks among the 10 most difficult tracks of the year. Last year, it ranked as the third-hardest course on the PGA Tour, behind only two other major venues, The Country Club for the U.S. Open and Southern Hills for the PGA Championship. Rain has been prominent in the lead-up to the tournament and is forecast to continue at varying degrees through the week. That would make the course play even longer.

Length always aides at Augusta National. That said, the golfers better also bring their short game, as things get very dicey on and around the greens. There are only 44 bunkers on the entire course, but the bentgrass greens are dastardly all by themselves. They are above average in size (averaging 6,500 square feet) and lightning fast at about 14 on the Stimpmeter with undulations and run-offs, enough to frustrate poor putters and especially Augusta first-timers (and second- and third-timers). The hardest holes tend to be the long or longish par-4s, and the past few years those have been Nos. 1, 5, 10 and 11 -- 11 was the fourth-hardest hole on the entire PGA Tour last year after it was made longer. There is water on five holes, most notably on the diabolical par-3 12th, plus 13, 15 and the par-3 16th.

So how should you construct your lineup? Let's start with trying to find the winner. He usually comes from way up high. In the 22 years beginning with 2000, the winner has been ranked in the top-12 in the world 16 times. Greens in regulation and scrambling have been vital over the years. No first-timer has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, but today's young golfers emerge from college ready to compete and Zalatoris came close two years ago as the runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama. As we always see, some pretty big names are priced in the $8,000s and even $7,000s. There definitely is value deep down the DraftKings board. This would allow you to take a $10,000+ guy, or even two, and still fill out your lineup with quality, Masters-proven golfers. Plus, as mentioned above, more than two-thirds of the field will make the cut. That means lots of $6,000s.

As for the weather, there is a strong likelihood of rain across all four days of the tournament -- at least a 70 percent chance on Friday through Sunday. After it appeared the week would at least be warm, that is not looking like the case now. It'll be in the mid-80s on Thursday, but then the highs will only reach the 60s or even 50s -- and that is terrible news for Woods and all of his ailing body parts. One good thing for the golfers: The wind is expected to be single digits or close to it.

Masters champion factoids: There have been only three repeat champions in the past six decades -- Jack Nicklaus in 1965-66, Nick Faldo in 1989-90 and Woods in 2001-02. Further, only once in the past 16 years has a defending champion so much as finished in the top-10, and that was Spieth as runner-up to Danny Willett in 2016.

Key Stats to Winning at Augusta National

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling 
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance 
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Three-putt Avoidance 
• Par-5 Scoring 
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 - Danny Willett 
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott

Champion's Profile

We mentioned above that in this century, 16 of the 22 winners have been ranked inside the top-12 in the world coming in. Among the past 10, the only outliers were Matsuyama at 25th, Reed at 24th and Watson in 2012 at No. 16 -- and they had been in the top-10 at some point in their careers. In the past 11 Masters, every winner but one has finished top-7 in the field in greens in regulation (Reed, 21st). Johnson and Woods were first in GIR, Matsuyama was seventh and Scheffler was fifth a year ago. Only three of the past 10 winners have been outside the top-10 in scrambling (Woods 47th, Reed 16th and Watson 15th in 2012) -- Scheffler was ninth. Some bad putters have won this tournament, but it's almost impossible if they are bad scramblers or have trouble around the greens. Even still, only one of the past 10 winners has been outside the top-15 in putting average (Watson, 28th, 2014). With little rough on the course, golfers are free to let it fly off the tee. If the rain really leaves its mark, the course will play longer, more greens will be missed and scrambling could be an even greater factor than usual. With putting, it's perhaps more important to avoid three-putting on the speedy greens than to make birdies. You can really make up ground on the par-5s. Scheffler and Matsuyama both won at 10-under total -- Scheffler was 8-under on the par-5s and Matsuyama was 11-under (not a typo). Johnson won at 20-under and was 11-under on the par-5s. Woods won at 13-under and nine of those strokes came on the par-5s. Reed won at 15-under with a whopping 13 of those strokes coming on the par-5s. The par-5s on the back-nine, Nos. 13 and 15, have traditionally been the two easiest holes on the course. That changed a bit on 15 last year, and could with 13 this year. Those two watery holes are also where dreams of winning a Green Jacket can end. If we're talking about who can win, we're almost surely talking about a longer hitter. But that doesn't mean a shorter hitter cannot contend or contribute to a solid DFS lineup. Scheffler is considered a real threat to go back-to-back.  As always at Augusta, there is one thing no statistical data can measure: the pressure a golfer feels on Sunday.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Jon Rahm - $10,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +900)
It is so very hard to avoid Scheffler ($11,100) right here. But as mentioned earlier, no Masters champ has successfully defended in more than two decades and only one in the past 16 years has even finished in the top-10 the year after winning. Is Scheffler a generational talent who can buck those very strong trends? We'll find out come Sunday night. But for now, let's go with Rahm, who somehow in the span of a month has almost become an afterthought in the three-headed fight for No. 1. Last year at the Masters, Rahm slipped to a 27th-place finish. But in the four years before that, he had two top-5s and two top-10s. He comes in at No. 2 in our model, with Scheffler first.

Rory McIlroy - $10,600 (+700)
McIlroy is the co-favorite along with Scheffler in the betting market, but is third in DK pricing. So if you like him most among the top-three, you'd get a bit of a discount. For all the heartache that McIlroy has had at Augusta through the years, he's usually in the mix. He was runner-up last year and was top-10 six other times since 2014. McIlroy actually checks in at No. 4 in our model, weighed down by poor three-putt avoidance. But a recent switch in putters should help correct that.

Jordan Spieth - $9,700 (+1600)
Spieth has a Masters win, two runners-up and two third-place finishes. No-brainer, right? Well, in the past four years, he finished top-20 just once. That's certainly a concern. But Spieth has been more, um, Spiethian of late -- that's both good and bad. He really could've won twice over the past month at both Bay Hill and the Valspar but blew late Sunday leads. Still, he comes in at No. 3 in our model, ahead of McIlroy.

Tier 2 Values

Dustin Johnson - $8,800 (+2200)
All the LIV guys are a great unknown. But Johnson's Masters history is very well known, and his sub-$9000 price is completely out of whack with his 22-1 betting odds. Johnson's game was struggling at this time a year ago, even before he left for LIV. He would eventually fall out of the top-15 in the world rankings before departing. But he still got it together at Augusta with an opening 3-under 69 and and wound up tied for 12th. He even had a decent tournament last week at LIV Orlando, if those things matter to you.
 

Jason Day - $8,700 (+2200)
The winner generally comes from a pool of about a dozen highly ranked guys. Day isn't that highly ranked -- he's 35th. But he has been playing so well in 2023 that he is No. 6 in our model. Day had been in golf's hinterlands for a few years, but before that he came close to winning the Masters, with a runner-up, a third and a fifth through the years. He already has six top-10s this season. He's ranked second on Tour in scrambling, 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting and second in bogey avoidance.

Sungjae Im - $8,100 (+3500)
Im always flies under the radar. Truth be told, he's never even been ranked in the top-15 in the world rankings, which is a real shocker. But he is 18th, just outside our circle of top contenders. Im combines both excellent Masters history and outstanding recent form. He was eighth last year at Augusta after finishing runner-up in 2020. And over the past 2 and a half months, he finished in the top-6 at the Farmers, Phoenix and THE PLAYERS. Im is ranked 12th on Tour in bogey avoidance.

Tier 3 Values

Justin Rose - $7,800 (+5500)
You'd be hard-pressed to find a non-Masters winner with a better Augusta history than Rose. He was twice a runner-up in a three-year span -- in 2015 to Spieth and more famously in a 2017 playoff with Garcia. Rose was leading for a good portion of the tournament two years ago before settling for a tie for seventh. It didn't look like he'd be back this year, or maybe ever, but the 42-year-old came out of nowhere to win at Pebble Beach. And then he tied for sixth at THE PLAYERS.

Corey Conners - $7,600 (+4000)
Conners would've been one of our picks even if he hadn't won the Valero last week, even though he had not been at his best so far in 2023, falling to 40th in the world rankings. His Masters track is that good. Conners has finished in the top-10 the past three years, improving from T10 to T8 to last year's T6. We know about his potentially elite ball striking and his usual woeful putter. But there's something to be said about knowing how to play Augusta National, and Conners obviously knows how.

Chris Kirk - $7,100 (+13000)
Kirk has played the Masters three times but not since 2016, a lifetime ago with both his golf game and, well, his life. He's rebounded from alcohol dependence to resurrect his career. His win at the Honda followed two third-place finishes in January, and he's coming off a tie for 10th at the Valspar. We already saw this coming last year (we just didn't know it) with Kirk's tie for fifth at the PGA Championship. He is ranked 12th in SG: Around-the-Green, 25th in SG: Putting and is first overall in three-putt avoidance.

Long-Shot Values

Talor Gooch - $6,800 (+13000)
Bang for your buck, Gooch is our top guy in the $6000s and a better play than the some $7000s and even $8000s. His career was really taking off when he left for LIV. He had won the 2021 RSM Classic, then was 14th last year in his maiden Masters, 20th at the PGA and 34th at the Open Championship. And in the fall he was fourth at the BMW PGA Championship, the DP World Tour's signature tournament. No one can fully gauge where Gooch's game stands now that he's with LIV. Andy LIV play is risky. That said, here's another ...

Kevin Na - $6,500 (+30000)
There aren't many golfers more distance-challenged than Na, either on the PGA Tour or the LIV tour. But what Na is is a battler, and he's shown it time and again at Augusta despite not having the yardage so many others do. He has finished in the top-15 five times, including the past three years.

Mackenzie Hughes - $6,300 (+25000)
Hughes has made the cut at the Masters the past two years. With great hands and nerves -- he's ranked top-35 on Tour in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting -- that makes sense. He's even better at three-putt avoidance. After winning the Sanderson Farms in the fall, Hughes tailed off at the start of 2023. But he rebounded a couple of weeks back in another tournament he performs well at, the WGC-Match Play, where he took down Homa and Shane Lowry before running into eventual winner Burns.

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