DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: RBC Canadian Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

RBC CANADIAN OPEN

Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Ancaster, Ontario
Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Yardage: 7,084
Par: 70
2023 champion: Nick Taylor (Oakdale)

Tournament Preview

One of the wildest scenes and most memorable moments in all of Canada's sports history took place at the Canadian Open a year ago. Nick Taylor sank a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole against snakebit-once-again Tommy Fleetwood to set off a celebration seven decades in the making. No Canadian had won their national championship since 1954 and, as Taylor and his caddie euphorically embraced and the partisan crowd erupted, fellow Canadian golfers ran on to the green to congratulate one of their own. It was then that Adam Hadwin was leveled by a well-meaning but overzealous security guard. Oops! My bad!

Yes, there was a lot to unpack there.

So as the PGA Tour makes its annual trek north of the border, it will be hard-pressed to match last year's seared-in-our-memory finish.

This tournament is a big deal in Canada, even though it annually gets stuck in no-man's land on the PGA Tour calendar. It is tied for the fifth oldest professional tournament in the world. This year, it returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club for the seventh time. It was first played there in 1919, when J. Douglas Edgar beat a 17-year-old Bobby Jones by 16 strokes (Francis Ouimet was also in the field), and most recently in 2019, when Rory McIlroy was victorious but by a mere seven strokes.

The course has undergone an extreme makeover since then, which we'll break down after reviewing the field.

McIlroy is the headliner, joined by Fleetwood, who is still searching for his first Tour win, plus Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Sam Burns and Adam Scott. The rest of the 156-man field are all Canadians. (We kid!) But there are lots and lots of them, notably Taylor, Hadwin, Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson, Hamilton native Mackenzie Hughes, 2024 Presidents Cup captain Mike Weir and on and on, more than two dozen in all. So many Canadians were given sponsor's invites that there was no room this week for Webb Simpson. (We kid some more!)

As you'll recall, Canadians have not gone back-to-back here since 1913-14.

Hamilton is a 27-hole property and, as is customary, the West and South nines will be in play this week. After noted architect Martin Ebert restored the famed Harry Colt's original 1914 design, Golf Digest awarded Hamilton its "Best Renovation" of 2022.

The overhaul resulted in new tee boxes, greens and bunkers on all 27 holes, with a new irrigation system installed. Greens grew by an average of 1,000 square feet in the name of offering more in pin placements. The V8 Creeping Bentgrass surfaces now average a medium-size 6,000 square feet and will run about 11-12 on the Stimpmeter.

Many trees were removed from the parkland-style course. There are now 72 rebuilt and quite penal bunkers. And there are runoffs around the greens, giving golfers numerous club options. A serpentine Ancaster Creek runs through the property.

The course remains short at a little over 7,000 yards. There are two par-5s, at 542 and 580 yards. Three of the par-3s exceed 200, including what is now becoming more commonplace: the uber-long par-3 of 249 yards at No. 6. Only three of the 12 par-4s are longer than 450, and four of them are 400 or under. The 457-yard 18th played as the hardest hole in 2019, with the creek crossing at the 295-yard mark, taking driver out of some of the golfers' hands.

As for the weather, the forecast looks quite good. Highs in the 70s with no chance of rain until maybe slightly on Sunday, and the wind will be light all week.

Historical Canadian Open factoids: This will be the 113th playing of the tournament. The only older pro tournaments in the world are the Open Championship, U.S. Open, Western Open (now the BMW Championship) and the South Africa Open. The Canadian and Australian Opens were both first played in 1904. ... Pat Fletcher won here in 1954 and until Taylor had been the most recent Canadian winner. ... In 2000, Tiger Woods earned his ninth victory of the year and pulled off what is often considered the greatest shot of his career. Sitting in a fairway bunker on the par-5 18th at Glenn Abbey on Sunday, he sent a 6-iron 213 yards over water and birdied the hole for a one-stroke win over Grant Waite.

Key Stats to Winning at Hamilton

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage

Past Champions

2023 - Nick Taylor (Oakdale)
2022 - Rory McIlroy (St. George's)
2021 - None
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy (Hamilton)
2018 - Dustin Johnson (Glen Abbey)
2017 - Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2015 - Jason Day (Glen Abbey)
2014 - Tim Clark (Royal Montreal)

Champion's Profile

Hamilton winners include McIlroy in 2019 at 22-under, Scott Piercy in 2012 at 17-under, Jim Furyk in 2006 at 14-under and Bob Tway in 2003 at 8-under. (Kevin Tway, Bob's son, is in the field this week and also tied for 44th in 2019.)

McIlroy shot 67-66-64-61 to win by seven shots over Lowry and Simpson. The final-round 61 came in very soft conditions. For the week, McIlroy led the field in driving distance and SG: Off-the-Tee, was fifth in Approach, and sixth in both Around-the-Green and Putting. So you can see how he won by seven.

Lowry ranked third in the field in putting and Simpson was first. Continuing down the leaderboard, Matt Kuchar ranked second in putting, Brandt Snedeker was fourth, Hadwin was 19th, Sungjae Im was fifth, Graeme McDowell was eighth and Henrik Stenson 10th. So there was a direct correlation between good putting and a high finish.

The over/under on the winning score as determined by golfodds.com was set at 261.5 under par, which is 18.5 under.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000+

Rory McIlroy - $12,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +360)
There's not a lot of strategy here. McIlroy won the last time at Hamilton, he's won in the past month, he ranks No. 1 in our model and he's priced very favorably in relation to the rest of the field. But to answer your question, yes, he will be the highest-owned player just about everywhere.

Sahith Theegala - $10,500 (+1800) 
All the other guys in five figures besides McIlroy will also be highly owned. Heck, there are only four of them -- what do you expect? Theegala has five top-10s this season and is coming off a T12 at the PGA. He's done it on long courses (Bay Hill) and short courses (Harbour Town). He's ranked top-25 in Off-the-Tee and Approach, top-5 in Tee-to-Green and Putting. The only weak spot has been a traditional strong spot: 137th in Around-the-Green.

Shane Lowry - $10,100 (+2200) 
Lowry was the runner-up here in 2019. Sure, that was an eternity ago in golf. But Lowry is still going strong. He blazed to a tie for sixth at the PGA last time out thanks to a Saturday 62. He's ranked 10th on Tour in Approach, 16th in Tee-to-Green and 1st overall in driving accuracy.

$9,000-$9,900

Alex Noren - $9,900 (+2200) 
Noren may be the second-highest-owned player behind McIlroy, and rightfully so. He's tops in this field in SG: Around-the-Green over his past 24 rounds, second in Tee-to-Green and exceptional at the par-4s in the 400-450 range. Noren tied for 12th at the PGA and was third at the Byron Nelson, getting to 21-under, which the winner might have to do this week.

Maverick McNealy - $9.200 (+3000) 
McNealy hasn't missed a stroke-play cut this season (just the Zurich). He hasn't had a ton of high finishes, mostly because his approach play has been ranked middle of the pack. In this field, he'll be far better (top-50). Everywhere else, he's been great: top-20 in Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green. And we know how well he can putt.

$8,000-$8,900

Mackenzie Hughes - $8,300 (+3500) 
Ah, finally a Canadian. Hughes is the No. 3-priced Canuck on the board, behind Conners and Hadwin. We think Hughes has the capability to go lower than those two, thanks to his elite putting. In fact, he's the top putter in the field over his past 24 rounds. Earlier this month, he fired a pair of 64s at the Byron Nelson and then tied for sixth at the Wells Fargo. FWIW, Hughes tied for 14th here in 2019.

Akshay Bhatia - $8,100 (+4500) 
Regular readers will know we haven't had the best luck of late with Bhatia. He's missed his past two cuts. But he's got to 20-under or better twice this season, including when he won the Valero. Two weeks later, he tied for 18th at super-short Harbour Town. Bhatia lands at No. 3 overall in our model. He's ranked 14th in Approach, 29th in Tee-to-Green and 35th in Putting.

$7,000-$7,9000

Taylor Pendrith - $7,600 (+5000) 
Doesn't seem right to pick only one Canadian. Pendrith won for the first time on Tour earlier this month at the Byron Nelson, then followed it up with a top-10 at the Wells Fargo before a missed cut at the PGA. He's ranked 12th on Tour in SG: Putting and 31st in birdie average.

Ben Griffin - $7,500 (+7500) 
A cleverly disguised but fake Griffin started following me on TikTok. But that's not why he's here. He had a pair of top-20s earlier this month at the Byron Nelson (17-under) and Myrtle Beach (12-under), and another last month at Puntacana (13-under). The real Griffin is also ranked top-20 for the season in SG: Putting. Look for low ownership in Griffin -- both of them.

Ryo Hisatsune - $7,000 (+6500) 
Hisatsune's maiden season on the PGA Tour has gone "okay." He wouldn't be in the playoffs if they started today, as he sits 90th in the FedExCup Standings. He has no top-10s and only four top-25s, though two have come this month, including at the PGA Championship. Frankly, his strokes-gained stats are better than his results. Remember, Hisatsune is only 21.

$6,000-$6,9000

S.H. Kim - $6,800 (+10000) 
Kim has made eight of his past nine cuts, including at the PGA Championship and Byron Nelson, where he tied for fourth at 20-under. He's ranked 25th on Tour for the season in SG: Putting; more recently, he ranks second in this field behind only Hughes. Kim is top-35 on Tour in birdie or better percentage, and he's second overall in total birdies at 249 (he's made 18 starts).

Mac Meissner - $6,500 (+7500) 
We saw that Meissner tied for fifth last week at Colonial. But then also saw that he tied for 13th earlier this month at Myrtle Beach and for 10th last month at the Valero. Once Meissner gets to the fairway, his stats are pretty good, and he's ranked 36th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, thanks in large part to 18th in Around-the-Green. Finally, notice how low Meissner's odds are in relation to the players near his DFS price.

Martin Laird - $6,000 (+18000) 
We picked Laird last week when he was in the $5,000s -- he tied for 37th -- and here we are again. The task will be harder this week, with 24 additional players in the field. Laird is great from 100 yards and in -- ranked 5th in Around-the-Green and 40th in Putting. The thinking here is, that should be enough to reach the weekend. Laird did that five years ago here when he tied for 50th.

$5,000-$5,900

Chandler Phillips - $5,900 (+15000) 
The 27-year-old Tour rookie has made 14 starts and missed only three cuts, and he has five top-25s. He's coming off a tie for 12th at the Charles Schwab in his native Texas. Phillips is ranked 36th in SG: Approach, which obviously is pretty dang good. And he's above average in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting.

Henrik Norlander - $5,600 (+30000) 
Norlander has made only seven starts, mostly in opposite-field or lesser events. He's coming off a T20 at Myrtle Beach and also made the cut at the Byron Nelson. Consider that Norlander has had limited play in those weaker fields, but he's ranked 18th on Tour for the season in SG: Approach. And he's top-80 in SG: Putting. 

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