This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SONY OPEN IN HAWAII
Purse: $8.3M
Winner's Share: $1.494M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Course: Waialae Country Club
Yardage: 7,044
Par: 70
2023 champion: Si Woo Kim
Tournament Preview
The two-week Hawaii Swing that annually opens the year on the PGA Tour features two courses that couldn't be more different. And yet there are some very real and important correlations about who might play well this week at the Sony Open.
The 2024 season began last week at the wide-open, bombs-away scoring machine known as Kapalua. Now, the Tour has island-hopped to Honolulu for the narrow fairways and precision-based requirements at venerable Waialae. There might not be a bigger 180 from week to week all year. Still, history shows that golfers who play the first Hawaii Tour stop tend to do well at the second.
Ever since the Sentry relocated to Hawaii, 17 of the 25 Sony winners played Kapalua the week before, including nine of the past 12. That speaks to the advantage the Sentry qualifiers have by getting a jump-start on tournament golf after the long holiday break. Of course, it also speaks to mostly better golfers being in the limited-field Sentry. This year, 38 of the 59 golfers who played last week will be on hand in the 144-man Sony.
Last week's winner Chris Kirk and runner-up Sahith Theegala will tee it up for the second straight event, as will Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, Keegan Bradley, Eric Cole, Akshay Bhatia, defending Sony champion Si Woo Kim and 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama. Two notable players making their return to Tour golf after long absences are Will Zalatoris, who missed most of last year following back surgery, and Gary Woodland, remarkably just four months removed from brain surgery. Both players were on the pre-tournament interview schedule.
So was a young Belgian who played at the University of Illinois. Adrien Dumont de Chassart finished third in the 2023 PGA Tour University standings and then made an immediate impact on the Korn Ferry Tour with a win and a runner-up in back-to-back weeks (then followed it up four more top-10s in a row). The 23-year-old is a player we spotlighted in RotoWire's Sleepers and Busts article in the 2024 Golf Draft Kit.
Also entered are five of the 10 golfers who secured their 2024 playing privileges via the 2023 DP World Tour: Alexander Bjork, Ryo Hisatsune, Robert MacIntyre, Matthieu Pavon and Sami Valimaki.
Kevin Kisner will jump from the NBC booth back onto the course. And Charley Hoffman and Zach Johnson are in the field thanks to using one-time career-earnings exemptions for this season.
All in all, it's a decent field, with the Sony one of the more attractive non-Signature Event on the schedule, for a number of reasons:
- It's the first opportunity for most of the golfers to play in 2024 after nearly two months off, so they want to get going.
- The golf season has just started, unlike in past years when almost 10 events had been played during the fall, so there's an opportunity to make an early dent in the FedExCup Standings.
- The way things work now with Signature Events is that guys who haven't qualified can do so by playing well in the regular tournaments. First up is Pebble Beach in less than a month, and non-exempt players with the most points accrued in the Sony, Amex and Farmers will get into Pebble.
- It's in Hawaii, which is not a bad place to be in winter.
The Sony Open in Hawaii -- and, by the way, that's the full name, with "in Hawaii," as they make sure to rub it in to all the snow-laden mainlanders -- is a modern golf marvel. For nearly six decades now, since the PGA Tour first arrived in Honolulu back in 1965, they have played the Sony at the same course every single year. Thus we have the fourth-longest association between tournament and course on the PGA Tour, behind only Augusta National, Pebble Beach and Colonial. That tells you all you need to know about famed Waialae Country Club, the Seth Raynor design that opened all the way back in 1927.
There also is another connection between this tournament and the Masters: Course history is more predictive at Waialae than anywhere else on Tour except Augusta National -- that according to the fine folks over at Data Golf.
As at Augusta -- and Kapalua, for that matter -- course experience is critical this week. Sixteen of the past 18 Sony champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning, including Kim. It's a track where shot-makers thrive, and course knowledge certainly helps in that regard. Matt Kuchar, who won in 2019 and is in this year's field, has called Waialae "tricky." Drivers are often left in the bag, the better to negotiate short holes and many dog legs, and to keep the ball in the difficult-to-hit fairways. Last year, none -- as in ZERO -- of the top-15 Sony finishers ranked in the top-10 in driving distance. Kim was 26th, albeit at an average of 314 yards (we'll leave the rollback talk for another day).
Five of the par-4s are under 425 yards, including the 423-yard second, which is one of five holes on the course with water in play and traditionally the hardest hole on the track. The Bermudagrass greens are on the large side (averaging 7,100 square feet) and run about 11-12 on the Stimpmeter.
Many years, this tournament is a big-time birdie-fest, though last year Kim won at only 18-under (on a par-70 track). It's a short course with only two par-5s, and you better score there if you want to contend. They are two of the easiest holes of the entire golf year. One of them, the ninth, is a mere 506 yards. The other is the closing 551-yard 18th. Kim shot 9-under of his 18-under on those two holes alone, birdieing them every day except when he eagled No. 9. All you need to know is that runner-up Hayden Buckley played the par-5s three shots worse than Kim and lost to him by one stroke.
As for the weather, duh, again, it's Hawaii! Highs will be in the 70s all week, with not much chance of rain, though the wind will be a bit gusty on Thursday and especially on Friday.
Key Stats to Winning at Waialae
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Birdie Average
• Par-5 Scoring 500-550 yards
Past Champions
2023 - Si Woo Kim
2012 - Hideki Matsuyama
2021 - Kevin Na
2020 - Cameron Smith
2019 - Matt Kuchar
2018 - Patton Kizzire
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Fabian Gomez
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
Champion's Profile
We noted above that 17 of the past 25 winners had played the Sentry the week before – including nine of the past 12 – and 16 of the past 18 Sony Open champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning. Three years ago, Smith was the first winner since the wrap-around era began in 2013 to have not played in the previous week's tournament. But he was coming off the Presidents Cup in December, so he at least got in some recent competitive rounds. Likewise, Kim did not play the Sentry last year. His iron game is what won him the tournament -- he ranked first in SG: Approach, second in greens in regulation and first in SG: Tee-to-Green. That was good enough to offset so-so putting, as he ranked 38th in SG: Putting. Matsuyama ranked outside the top-20 in driving distance, and he wasn't all that great on approach either, ranking T36 in greens in regulation. But in a total surprise, he led the field in Putting. So in the past two years, we've seen completely different paths to victory. But most years, the key that's first and foremost is getting on the green in regulation. The GIR numbers have historically been very high on this short track, and golfers better be around the 75-percent mark to be in the mix. And, as detailed earlier, par-5 scoring can go a long way in deciding the winner. The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 262.5, which is 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Brian Harman - $9,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +2000)
Harman is coming off a tie for fifth at the Sentry, and now he heads to a course that in theory is better suited to his game. Yet he hasn't cracked the top-30 at Waialae since finishing fourth in 2018. Harman hasn't always played the Sentry the week before, so maybe that's a contributor. He is No. 5 on the DK board, but the top-4 give us concerns. Aberg, Hatton and Fitzpatrick have never played Waialae, and Theegala's big weakness might be fairway accuracy. Harman is very accurate off the tee and a terrific putter, and is ranked No. 4 in our model.
Corey Conners - $9,800 (+2200)
Conners played the Sony four of the past five years and finished no worse than 12th. It stands to reason that on a course where precision counts for a lot -- to the point that it could make up for dicey putting -- Conners would thrive. He played the Sentry last week and, while he wasn't great in finishing T33, we do like that he got four tournament rounds under his belt.
Russell Henley - $9,600 (+2000)
Henley was the winner here more than a decade ago in 2013, and he was also runner-up to Matsuyama just two years ago. He's had multiple other top-20s through the years at a tournament he plays every year. Henley is the most accurate driver in the field, and it's reflected in his ranking in our model: second overall. He played the Sentry last week, not his best course fit, and tied for 51st.
Chris Kirk - $9,500 (+2500)
Asking Kirk to complete the Hawaii double is a big ask. On the other hand, he's the only one who can still do it this year. The Kapalua win was a surprise, but a Waialae win would not be other than because it would be two in a row. Kirk finished third here last year and has been runner-up two other times. It's just a question whether he can get off Cloud 9 in time for Thursday's tee time.
Tier 2 Values
Byeong Hun An - $8,700 (+3000)
An turned his career around last year, finishing in the top-50 in the FedExCup Standings after having to play his way back via the Korn Ferry Tour. He's always been good tee to green with major trouble on the greens. Last week at the Sentry, he broke out a new, longer putter and the initial results were positive. He finished solo fourth and ranked 18th in the 59-man field in SG: Putting. He's played Waialae just once before, last year, and he impressively tied for 12th.
Cam Davis - $8,500 (+4000)
Davis was a pick of ours last week and he did not deliver with a disappointing tie for 52nd. This will be his fifth straight go-round at Waialae, where his best was a T9 in 2020. He's made four straight cuts. Davis doesn't have a big weakness in his game; he's better than average in just about every stat across the board (sometimes his putter is a bit leaky). That's a good resume to have for the Sony.
Justin Rose - $8,200 (+3500)
Rose has played this tournament just once in the past decade and he was a runner-up in 2017. Makes you wonder why he hadn't come back till now. Like Davis, he's really strong across the board statistically. Rose tied for 40th last week at the Sentry.
Keegan Bradley - $8,000 (+5000)
Bradley is ranked 16th in the world yet curiously finds 19 guys priced higher than him here this week. On one hand, we get it. In the past eight Sonys, he's missed four cuts and never finished higher than 12th (twice). And he tied for 45th last week at Kapalua. The price just seems too low for a player of his caliber, and we're always looking for little edges to take advantage of.
Tier 3 Values
Matt Kuchar - $7,800 (+5000)
For the third year in a row, Kuchar will try to get back to the Masters, which he hasn't played since 2021. He was sniffing the top-50 OWGR last year and he is again now, ranked 55th. He's also trying to qualify for Signature events, which would go a long way in getting him inside the top-50. Kuchar didn't qualify for the Sentry as he also finished last year 55th in FedEx Cup points. But Waialae is in his wheelhouse -- a win in 2019, twin T7s the past two years and two other top-fives in the past decade.
Adam Svensson - $7,700 (+4000)
Svensson lands at No. 9 in our model on the strength of accuracy off the tee and a superior tee-to-green game. His putting lands in the middle of this field. He's coming off a tie for 33rd at the Sentry. Svensson has played the Sony three times with a best of T7 two years ago.
Andrew Putnam - $7,500 (+4500)
Putnam is a great putter (12th on Tour last season) and therefore can deliver a high finish at Waialae. In fact, he has. More than once. Putnam tied for fourth last year and was runner-up in 2019. He's made the cut five of the past six years. He's also got some tournament golf under his belt already in 2024 with a tie for 33rd last week at the Sentry.
Nick Taylor - $7,200 (+6500)
Taylor broke through last season with by far his best year on Tour, highlighted by a win in his national championship, the Canadian Open. That landed him in the Sentry, where he tied for 52nd last week. Last year's Sony result, a T7, helped get him off a to a good start, and Taylor also tied for 11th at Waialae three years ago. He does not score highly in our model -- outside the cut line, in fact -- even after closing 2023 with three straight top-25s. Weird. But this is a week where course history takes on added importance.
Long-Shot Values
Matti Schmid - $6,700 (+13000)
We did not find much value in the upper $6,000s, and even Schmid gets only a lukewarm endorsement. He missed the cut last year in his Sony debut, but at least he got in two rounds of course experience. The young German actually lands in the top-20 in our model thanks to superior birdie-or-better and par-5 scoring numbers.
Hayden Buckley - $6,600 (+15000)
Buckley was runner-up last year, 12th in his Sony debut the year before, so we don't want to overthink this one. After all, Data Golf said course history is more predictive here than anywhere else but Augusta National.
Nico Echavarria - $6,300 (+25000)
We like that the Colombian played last week. We like that he tied for 25th. And we like that he tied for 12th last year in his Sony debut. And we like that, even though Echavarria falls outside the cut line in our model, he's among the best guys in the field in par-5 500-550 efficiency.
Justin Lower - $6,200 (+30000)
Lower is not a great golfer at this level, ranked outside the top-200 in the world. He's not long off the tee, but that shortcoming will be minimized this week, opening up the rest of his game. He's average from the fairway and way above average on the greens, ranking 35th on Tour in SG: Putting last season. Lower played the Sony two years ago and made the cut.
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