This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE SONY OPEN IN HAWAII
Purse: $8.7M
Winner's Share: $1.566M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Course: Waialae Country Club
Yardage: 7,044
Par: 70
2024 champion: Grayson Murray
Tournament Preview
Kapalua, site of last week's Sentry tournament, is more than 500 yards longer that Waialae, site of this week's Sony Open. Kapalua is a par-73 and Waialae is a par-70. Kapalua has super-wide fairways open to a bombs-away approach, while Waialae's fairways are super narrow necessitating a precision-based strategy Kapalua's greens average some 1,600 square feet more than those at Waialae. Hideki Matsuyama won last week's Sentry at 35-under-par while the winning score last year at the Sony was 17-under.
As you can clearly see, the two Hawaii tracks that traditionally open the PGA Tour season could not be more different. Right off the bat, golfers will be thrust into the biggest week-to-week 180 they will experience all year.
And yet there are some very real and important correlations between the two courses that will provide an edge about who might play well this week. History shows that golfers who play the first Hawaii tour stop tend to do well at the second.
Ever since the Sentry relocated to Hawaii in 1999, 17 of the 26 Sony winners played Kapalua the week before, including nine of the past 13. Last year was not on of those years but eight guys who finished in the top-10 at Waialae and 17 of the top-25 played Kapalua the week before. Those are some strong indicators.
Now, the obvious connection is that better golfers get into the limited-field Sentry. Further, everyone who island-hops from Maui to Honolulu for the Sony will also have gotten a jump-start on tournament golf after the long winter break. This year, 35 golfers are double-dipping, close to one-quarter of the 144-man field.
Heading the field is last week's Sentry winner and 2022 Sony champion (see, a connection!) Hideki Matsuyama. Now up to No. 5 in the world, the Japanese sensation is the only top-10 guy entered. But there still is formidable competition in Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Brian Harman, Nick Dunlap and 2023 Sony winner Si Woo Kim. All of those guys except Tom Kim played Kapalua last week.
Also entered are 27 of the 30 Korn Ferry Tour graduates, led by No. 1 Matt McCarty, who immediately showed he belonged by winning the Black Desert Championship during the fall season. Two of the 10 golfers who secured their 2025 PGA Tour playing privileges via the 2024 DP World Tour are also entered -- Rikuya Hoshino and Jesper Svensson.
Among the sponsor invites are Luke Clanton, the Florida State amateur who made quite the impression on Tour last season; Takumi Kanaya, the former world No. 1 amateur who was among six Q school grads to get their cards; and two more Japanese players in No. 112-ranked Kensei Hirata and No. 168 Yuta Sugiura.
The Sony Open in Hawaii -- and, by the way, that's the full name, with "in Hawaii," as they make sure to rub it in to all the snow-laden mainlanders -- is a modern golf marvel. For six decades now, since the PGA Tour first arrived in Honolulu back in 1965, they have played the Sony at the same course every single year. Thus we have the fourth-longest association between tournament and course on the PGA Tour, behind only Augusta National, Pebble Beach and Colonial. That tells you all you need to know about famed Waialae Country Club, the Seth Raynor design that opened all the way back in 1927.
Course history is more predictive at Waialae than anywhere else on Tour except Augusta National -- that according to the fine folks over at Data Golf.
As at Augusta -- and Kapalua, for that matter -- course experience is critical this week. Seventeen of the past 19 Sony champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning (including Grayson Murray, last year's champion who committed suicide four months later). It's a track where shot-makers thrive, and course knowledge certainly helps in that regard. Matt Kuchar, who won in 2019 and is in this year's field, has called Waialae "tricky." Drivers are often left in the bag, the better to negotiate short holes and many dog legs, and to keep the ball in the difficult-to-hit fairways.
Last year, only two of the top-15 Sony finishers ranked in the top-10 in driving distance. Murray ranked 17th, though one of the guys he beat in the three-man playoff, Byeong Hun An, ranked first.
Five of the par-4s are under 425 yards, including the 423-yard second, which is one of five holes on the course with water in play and traditionally the hardest hole on the track. The Bermudagrass greens, while small in relation to Kapalua, are still on the large side (averaging 7,100 square feet) and run about 11-12 on the Stimpmeter.
Many years, this tournament is a big-time birdie-fest, though the past two years the winning scores were 18- and 17-under. It's a short course with only two par-5s, and you better score there if you want to contend. They are two of the easiest holes of the entire golf year. One of them, the ninth, is a mere 506 yards. The other is the closing 551-yard 18th. Si Woo Kim and Murray both shot 9-under on those two holes alone, each registering seven birdies and one eagle. For good measure, Murray birdied 18 again on the first playoff hole to best An and Bradley.
As for the weather, duh, again, it's Hawaii! Highs will be in the low-80s all week. There is a little chance of some rain, mostly on Thursday and Friday, and the wind will be blowing a bit, up into the double digits all week and approaching 20 mph on the weekend.
Key Stats to Winning at Waialae
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Par-5 Scoring 500-550 yards
• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Birdie Average
Past Champions
2024 - Grayson Murray
2023 - Si Woo Kim
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama
2021 - Kevin Na
2020 - Cameron Smith
2019 - Matt Kuchar
2018 - Patton Kizzire
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Fabian Gomez
2015 - Jimmy Walker
Champion's Profile
We noted above that 17 of the past 26 winners had played the Sentry the week before – including nine of the past 13 – and 17 of the past 19 Sony Open champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning.
Neither Murray nor Kim played in the Sentry the week before they won, seemingly throwing a wrench into a longtime trend. But as we mentioned earlier, there were still eight top-10s and 17 top-25s last year among the golfers who hopped over from the Sentry.
Murray combined decent length and decent accuracy to rank first in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. That was critical, because his other strokes-gained numbers were marginal: 31st in Approach, 15th in Around-the-Green and 29th in Putting. Cumulatively, though, he ranked first in Tee-to-Green. Co-runners-up An ranked third and Bradley seventh in T2G, and the next two guys on the leaderboard right behind them, Henley and Carl Yuan, also ranked in the top five. None of those guys ranked in the top-10 in SG: Putting, however.
The year before, Kim ranked first in SG: Approach, second in greens in regulation and first in SG: Tee-to-Green. That was good enough to offset so-so putting, as he ranked 38th in the field.
GIR numbers have historically been very high on this short track, and golfers better be around the 75-percent mark to be in the mix. Murray tied for second in the field at almost 80 percent.
And, as detailed earlier, par-5 scoring can go a long way in deciding the winner.
The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 260.5, which is 19.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000 and up
Hideki Matsuyama - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +900)
The odds are probably too short to play Matsuyama, but his DFS price is actually pretty favorable for cash games considering he's the top-priced guy and only top-10 player in the field. He won here in 2022 and this will be his 12th go-round at Waialae. So Matsuyama knows the course as well as anyone and is playing well with a win at the Sentry, where he tried a new putter and ranked third in the field in SG: Putting.
$9,000-$9,990
Russell Henley - $9,900 (+2000)
Henley just missed here two of the past three years, finishing one stroke out of a playoff last year and runner-up in 2022. He didn't miss here 12 years ago, when he secured his first PGA Tour victory at the 2013 Sony Open. As one of the straightest drivers and an accurate iron hitter, Henley is a natural fit for this course. He played last week at the Sentry and tied for 30th.
$8,000-$8,900
Taylor Pendrith - $8,800 (+3500)
Pendrith is our favorite play considering all factors. At under $9,000, he ranks second overall in our model. After missing the cut in his Waialae debut, Pendrith tied for 10th last year, showing how far just a little bit of course experience can go. He's also coming off a tie for 13th last week at the Sentry. Pendrith ranked fifth on Tour last season in SG: Putting and was ninth in birdie average.
Davis Thompson - $8,500 (+3500)
Thompson shook off the winter rust last week with a tie for 36th at Kapalua. This will be his third go-round at Waialae, he made the cut both previous visits and now he's a far more accomplished golfer. Thompson ranked 13th on Tour last season in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Luke Clanton - $8,400 (+3000)
The Florida State junior, who is in the field on a sponsor's invite, performed well last season despite playing courses for the first time. Waialae might be his biggest challenge. Clanton was exceptional last year at getting the ball on the green in regulation. In eight starts last year, he amassed four top-10s, two of which were runners-up.
Ben Griffin - $8,200 (+4500)
Griffin ranked top-40 on Tour last season in SG: Approach, greens in regulation and par-5 scoring. He tied for 12th in his Sony debut two years ago. Last year, Griffin managed to only tie for 30th, but in the second round he shot an 8-under 62.
$7,000-$7,900
Seamus Power - $7,400 (+8000)
The bottom half of the $7,000s is a real sweet spot this week, based on our model. It starts with Power, who tied for third here three years ago. He was a very solid player across the board last season, ranking in the upper half on Tour in every strokes-gained category.
Lucas Glover - $7,300 (+8000)
Now 45, Glover talked at the end of last season about needing to improve his fitness and diet to compete with all the younger players. So it will be interesting to see where he stands. Iron play has always been his bread and butter, and he might be the best on approach and tee-to-green in the entire field. Glover tied for fifth here three years ago.
Matt Kuchar - $7,200 (+7500)
The 2019 winner at Waialae has enjoyed years of success there. He tied for seventh in both 2022 and 2023. Kuchar ranked top-30 on Tour last season in both driving accuracy and SG: Putting, which is no small feat for a 46-year-old.
J.J. Spaun - $7,200 (+10000)
Spaun played far better as last season progressed, registering all four of his top-10s in the second half. He ranked top-20 on Tour in both greens in regulation and SG: Approach, two stats that landed him very high in our model. Spaun missed the cut here last year but tied for 12th in 2023.
$6,000-$6,900
Patton Kizzire - $6,900 (+12000)
The 2018 Sony winner has added a top-10 and two top-15s since then, missing the cut only once. Kizzire's win at the start of the fall season at the Procore Championship got him into Kapalua last week. He tied for 40th. He ranked 18th on Tour last season in SG: Approach and seventh in greens in regulation.
Matti Schmid - $6,700 (+20000)
Schmid has played Waialae the past two years and missed the cut both times. But he has come so far as a player in the past six months. He endured a stretch of six straight missed cuts to start 2024, then had another run of five in a row. But he finished the fall season with two top-5s and another top-20 to close in on the top-100 OWGR.
Joel Dahmen - $6,700 (+20000)
Dahmen has made the Sony cut in four of his five trips, including last year. He is so good from tee to green but truly horrible on the greens, so a high finish is always a challenge. Dahmen ranked 16th on Tour last season in SG: Approach and 33rd in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Ben Martin - $6,300 (+25000)
Martin has played Waialae 10 times and made the cut in eight of them, topping out at T7 in 2018. He made only 15 starts last year and is in the field this week via a major medical extension. Martin didn't play enough in 2024 to be ranked in the statistical categories, but he gained strokes on approach, off the tee and on the green.
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