This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
TEXAS OPEN
Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1,134,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: The Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
2017 champion: Kevin Chappell
Tournament Preview
It sucks getting old. For years now, the venerable Texas Open has largely been a forgotten stop on the PGA Tour calendar, stuck in no man's land between the Masters and THE PLAYERS Championship. It's a shame, because there is so much history emanating from one of the elder statesmen in all of golf. This event has been around since 1922, making it the sixth oldest tournament in the world. No tournament has been played in one city as long as this one, which has called San Antonio home since its inception. And there aren't many tournaments still around today that can say that one of their champions was Hall of Famer Walter Hagen, who won it back in 1923. But unlike many of us as we get older, the Texas Open is about to become very relevant again. Next year, the tournament will move to the coveted spot a week before the Masters, and likely will still be there when the 100th anniversary rolls around in 2022. The move is part of the refashioned PGA Tour schedule beginning next year, and the tournament was rewarded because Valero recently re-upped for 10 years as the sponsor.
But that's next year. For this year, for one final time, the Texas Open will be stuck with a terrible field. Only seven of the top 50 in the world are on hand. At least the tournament can hang one of its 10-gallon hats on a local heading the field, that noted Texan Sergio Garcia...wait, what? Yes, Garcia now calls himself a resident of Austin, hometown of his wife. At No. 10, the Spaniard/Texan is the only golfer inside the top 20 in the OWGR in the field. He's followed by Matt Kuchar (No. 21), Pat Perez (22), Charley Hoffman (26), Xander Schauffele (28), defending champion Kevin Chappell (43) and Brendan Steele (46). Not even San Antonio native and new Masters champion Patrick Reed could be bothered. No doubt, 2019 can't come fast enough for tournament organizers. So there aren't many good golfers at the top and, gamers, with the maxed-out field of 156, there are oodles and oodles of bad golfers at the bottom -- Web.com grads and worse. Like many things in Texas, this bottom is very big.
Unlike the Golf Club of Houston, which had held the pre-Masters slot for years and had many similarities to Augusta, TPC San Antonio has few. But both tracks are hard and favor the big hitters. Last year, the Oaks ranked 10th hardest of the 50 on Tour. There are towering oak trees that line the narrow fairways, lots of native lands that can lead to very crooked numbers and some enormous bunkers, two of which are bigger than many PGA Tour greens. Kevin Na infamously found a native area on the par-4, 474-yard 9th hole seven years ago, and he walked off with a 16. Many of the putting surfaces have undulations and multiple levels, which will be challenging for a field devoid of many top putters. We'll explore all that further in the Champion's Profile below. The course offers potential for a fun finish, with two of the easiest holes being No. 17, a drivable par-4 at 347 yards, and 18, a par-5 at just under 600 yards.
Weather-wise, the wind is always the big consideration in Texas. Right now, the forecast calls for warm and potentially very windy conditions throughout, with a strong probability of rain on Saturday but not the other three days. If you can figure out when the wind will be blowing strongest, adjust your lineups accordingly.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes gained: tee to green
• Driving distance/strokes gained: off the tee
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
Past Champions
2017 - Kevin Chappell
2016 - Charley Hoffman
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
2011 - Brendan Steele
2010 - Adam Scott
Champion's Profile:
The tournament has been played at TPC San Antonio since 2010. The winning score has ranged from 8-under (Brendan Steele) to 14-under (Adam Scott, Martin Laird), so there are not many birdies to be had. Four of the eight winners have finished inside the top-10 in driving distance and only one, Ben Curtis, was outside the top-25. But he was also second in greens in regulation. Last year, Kevin Chappell ranked third in greens in regulation, and the top five finishers were all top-6 in GIR. So while GIR is always important, last year it was insanely important. Every winner since 2010 has landed among the top 15 in putting average. There are few great putters on hand this week; but still, all they have to do is putt well in relation to the field.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Sergio Garcia - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
Garcia is far and away the top golfer in the field. He genuinely seems at home in Texas, and it's apparent that winning there would mean a great deal to him. Garcia hasn't played the tournament since tying for 45th way back in 2010. But he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on Tour, and he would rank 11th in strokes gained: off the tee if he had played enough rounds to qualify.
Charley Hoffman - $10,900 (18-1)
Hoffman has the best record of anyone since the event moved to TPC San Antonio, with a win (2016), a second, a third and top-15s every year but one. That one would be last year, when he tied for 40th. Hoffman says he likes to play the course, adding that if he goes into the treacherous native lands, he knows to take his medicine and not try to be a hero. If there is one thing that gives us pause, it's that this is the seventh time in eight weeks that Hoffman is playing, and third in a row. That's a lot of golf. But he's cashed top-25 in four of the previous six starts, so he's playing well. And that course history is simply too strong to pass up.
Luke List - $10,000 (20-1)
List has done everything but win this season, and he had another near-miss Sunday at Harbour Town. He can't play well every week, but we're going to keep riding him for now. The big-hitting List is ranked sixth on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 10th in SG off the tee and 32nd in SG approach. Putting is his weakness, which perhaps is why List has never finished better than T29 in three prior visits. Of course, he's playing at a higher level now than ever before. Last year, you could've had List for $7,600.
Adam Scott - $9,600 (25-1)
There's no denying Scott's success in Texas. He is the only golfer to have won the four-event Texas Slam, taking the first tournament at the Oaks back in 2010, plus Colonial, Houston and the Byron Nelson. Scott has been so-so in limited play this year, with three top-25s in eight starts, but he's coming off a respectable T32 at the Masters. Scott is still as steady as ever tee to green, ranking fifth on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 12th in approach and 26th in off the tee. His putting, passable for a number of years, has been woeful.
Tier 2 Values
Brendan Steele - $8,900 (25-1)
Steele is another former champion here, and another tee-to-green machine. He won it in 2011, and has had two other top-10s since. Steele is ranked fifth on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, eighth in greens in regulation, 15th in SG tee to green and 34th in approach. All that, plus he's a whopping $1,000 cheaper than he was last year. That's probably because he tied for 62nd.
Chesson Hadley - $8,500 (30-1)
Hadley's career is getting quite the second act after he was forced to go back to the Web.com Tour. He thrived during the fall season amid lesser fields, but he's still been delivering in stronger fields, with top-25s in his past two starts. Hadley is ranked 25th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green and 34th in SG putting. As mentioned earlier, there are not a lot of top putters (top-50 in SG putting) in this field. Hadley finished fourth at TPC San Antonio back in 2015.
Pat Perez - $8,400 (40-1)
Perez has definitely fallen back a step, or two or even three, since his great start to the season. But he's a good fit for this course, with four top-25s in four visits through the years. Perez is ranked fourth on Tour in greens in regulation and 36th in SG putting. If he can't deliver a strong showing in this lousy field...
Ryan Palmer - $8,300 (40-1)
This is where current form, or the lack thereof, and course history collide. Palmer doesn't have so much as a top-25 since a runner-up at the Farmer's in January, missing 3-of-5 cuts. But he's also cashed top-6 here the past three years. Palmer is ranked an impressive 19th on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee. After that, his game goes sideways. He always seems to right himself this week. We shall see.
Tier 3 Values
Beau Hossler - $8,100 (40-1)
We did a double-take on this price. But if you like what you see, you'll pay top dollar, right? Hossler didn't sulk after his heartbreaking loss to Ian Poulter at Houston; he came right back next time out for a T16 last week at Hilton Head. The former Texas Longhorn is ranked 10th on Tour in strokes gained: putting. Other numbers -- 65th in greens in regulation, 77th in strokes gained: off the tee, 66th in SG total -- are not terrible.
Jamie Lovemark - $7,700 (40-1)
We continue to see Lovemark as a good value for that price, and the oddsmakers agree. He has made six straight cuts, with top-25s in three of his past four outings. Lovemark is ranked 49th on Tour in strokes gained: approach, 56th in tee to green and 73rd in putting, numbers that have been steadily rising after a cut-filled winter portion of the schedule.
Kevin Streelman - $7,700 (50-1)
His next birthday will be his 40th, but Streelman is carving out a pretty good season. He's missed only one cut in 14 starts, with six top-25s, including a top-10 last week at Hilton Head. Streelman is ranked second on Tour in greens in regulation, 18th in strokes gained: tee to green and, somewhat surprisingly, 20th in off the tee. As with a lot of guys with such lofty numbers, putting is a problem.
Scott Piercy - $7,400 (50-1)
Piercy has been a top-25 machine this season, but he has converted only one of those seven finishes into a top-10. This weak field is a perfect opportunity for a second. Piercy does not have a good history in this event, but then again, he's never been ranked first on Tour in strokes gained: approach, as he is now. He's also 10th in SG: tee to green.
Long-Shot Values
Tom Lovelady - $7,100 (Field, 6-1)
The 24-year-old Alabaman has made the cut only half the time in his 14 starts this season, but that includes three of his past four, two of which were top-20s. Lovelady is ranked 10th on Tour in driving distance, but he'll need to improve on his accuracy issues to make the cut. Still, he's ranked 55th in strokes gained: off the tee. And he's also 107th in strokes gained: putting. That doesn't sound like much, but there are many in this field who are far worse.
Adam Schenk - $7,100 (Field, 6-1)
Schenk has made his last five cuts and has done so in some pretty good fields, albeit without any top-25s. His stats are certainly trending in the right direction. He's ranked 55th in strokes gained: putting, 63rd in greens in regulation and 66th off the tee.
Abraham Ancer - $6,900 (100-1)
The oddsmakers see something in Ancer that we do too. What they see is that he's a Texas native who has run off three top-16 cashes in a row, including a T8 his last time out at Houston. Ancer is ranked 56th on Tour in strokes gained: approach, and he tied for 42nd in his lone visit to TPC San Antonio two years ago.
Joaquin Niemann - $6,900 (250-1)
Why not? Let's take a flyer on the now former top-ranked amateur who makes his pro debut this week on a sponsor exemption. Tiger Woods saw the 19-year-old Chilean at the Masters and was impressed with his swing. Niemann missed the cut at Augusta, just like he did last year at the U.S. Open. But in his only other PGA Tour start, Niemann tied for 29th last year at The Greenbrier.
