This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $11M
Winner's Share: $1.98M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,189
Par: 72
2017 champion: Si Woo Kim
Tournament Preview
We were all set to tell you about the so-called fifth major, about the strongest field in golf, about the entire top-50 in the world being on hand, about the most famous hole in golf, about the remarkable list of bold-face names to have won the Players Championship. And we will.
But first, Golf Twitter lost its collective mind on Saturday, when it was announced that Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson would play the first two rounds together. For all the talk about the elite young talent in golf, how the game is in good hands for years to come, the two biggest names in the sport are the same as 20 years ago. Same as it ever was ... Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Tiger and Phil -- and we're gonna call them by their first names because it just seems the thing to do here -- surely aren't a duo. They aren't Bert and Ernie, Lennon and McCartney or peanut butter and jelly. But they're not really enemies like Batman and the Joker, either. They are opponents perhaps forever connected. A modern day Jack and Arnie. The dirty little secret that we, AKA Debbie Downer, are obligated to tell you is that we don't expect either one to be in the mix come Sunday. They both are former champions, but Mickelson has missed the cut four of the past five years and has only three top-10s in 24 visits to TPC Sawgrass. Woods has won twice, but he has a total of only five top-10s in 17 tries. Ten golfers have shorter odds, 12 are higher priced on DraftKings before we get to Woods at $8,600, $200 more than Mickelson. No matter, because come 1:52 p.m. ET on Thursday, we all know what we'll be doing.
Moving on, we touched on all the big names who have won here, beginning with Woods and Mickelson and continuing with Day, Fowler, Garcia and Stenson. Going further back, Nicklaus, Trevino, Norman, Couples and Duval. While the Players has all these elite champions, a look back at the past decade shows this is a very hard tournament to handicap, that just about all the champions have also had their share of struggles. This doesn't happen often, but you really can't label any of the 144 golfers as a horse for this course. That's probably due at least in part because the field is so strong. In fact, the top-53 in the OWGR are entered. The majors all let in secondary- or even tertiary-level players, be they aging ex-champs, amateurs or even club pros. Not at the Players. Interestingly, none of the top five golfers in the world -- any of whom has a mathematical chance take over the top ranking come Sunday night -- has ever won this tournament. No. 6 Rickie Fowler is the highest-ranked former champion and he also has a runner-up, but otherwise has missed 5-of-6 cuts with a T60. That's crazy.
The good thing about formulating a DFS lineup is that TPC Sawgrass, depite having its quirks here and there, tends to be a pretty standard, tee-to-green golf course. We'll expand on that in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. The course usually ranks middle of the road among the toughest tracks on Tour, though last year it was the fifth hardest, perhaps because it was the first time being played with a new type of Bermudagrass on the greens. For all the cute names that courses like to give to their toughest stretch of holes, TPC Sawgrass offers no name, only a brutal finish. The most iconic hole in golf, the 137-yard 17th with the island green, saw 69 water balls last year, the most in a decade. And then came an even harder hole, 18, which ranked as the second toughest on the entire Tour last year, playing almost a half-shot over par. The closing hole featured 45 double bogeys and another dozen of the dreaded "others."
Weather-wise, the forecast calls for highs in the 80s and low-double-digit breezes all four days, with the chance of rain increasing on the weekend.
Lastly, this is the final year the tournament will be played in May. Next year, instead of beginning the run-up to the U.S. Open, the Players moves back to March to kick off the run-up to the Masters.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes gained: tee to green
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Bogey avoidance
Past Champions
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Matt Kuchar
2011 - K.J. Choi
2010 - Tim Clark
2009 - Henrik Stenson
2008 - Sergio Garcia
Champion's Profile:
There is water on 17 of the 18 holes. There were nearly 300 double bogeys or worse last year, by far the most on Tour. We don't need any cowboys in our lineups. This week's stat shouldn't be bogey avoidance, it should be double-bogey avoidance. Last year, Si Woo Kim won at 10-under and had only four bogies, none of them a double. That's asking a lot of anyone, but you get the picture. The last five winners were all in the top-5 in the field in strokes gained: tee to green. The last two winners ranked first in scrambling and every winner this decade but one has been top-10 in scrambling. The only one of the past five winners to finish in the top-10 in putting average was Rickie Fowler, and he ranked outside the top-50 in greens in regulation. We don't recommend that approach but, as always, there's more than one way to win a golf tournament.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $11,600 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 14-1)
McIlroy has never won the Players but might be the closest thing to a horse for the course. He had four consecutive top-12s before stumbling to a T35 last year. He wasn't great last week at the Wells Fargo in his first outing since crashing and burning at the Masters, but he wasn't terrible either in tying for 16th. McIlroy ranked 12th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green and third in approach. For the season, he's second on Tour in scrambling. As usual with the mercurial McIlroy, his performance will come down to "strokes gained: inside his head."
Justin Thomas - $10,800 (16-1)
Thomas could be amid what for him amounts to a mini-slump: T17 at the Masters and then T21 last week at Quail Hollow. Maybe the chance to overtake Dustin Johnson as world No. 1 is still weighing on him. Thomas is ranked fifth on Tour in SG: tee to green, ninth in approach and 12th in scrambling, and he has continued to play at an elite level while eliminating a lot of the wildness from his game -- he's ranked 12th in bogey avoidance. This will be Thomas' third Players, after a T24 in 2016 and a T3 last year.
Tier 2 Values
Paul Casey - $8,900 (25-1)
Casey struggled for years at TPC Sawgrass before finally notching top-25s the past two years. We'll need an even better result to warrant paying this price, but Casey continues to play well almost every week, including a T5 at the Wells Fargo. He's ranked eighth in SG: tee to green, 10th in approach and 21st in scrambling.
Henrik Stenson - $8,800 (25-1)
It wouldn't be a surprise to see the 2009 champion win here for a second time. Stenson has four top-10s in five stroke-play starts on the PGA Tour this season. He's first in SG: approach, first in bogey avoidance, fourth in scrambling, sixth in SG: tee to green.
Patrick Reed - $8,700 (30-1)
Reed has not slowed down since winning the Masters, finishing solo eighth last week at Quail Hollow. He tried new contacts before Augusta and, well, they are working. Reed has been a mixed bag here, alternating top-25s and missed cuts in his four prior visits. But he's amid the best stretch of golf in his career and we want to go along for the ride.
Bryson DeChambeau - $8,300 (50-1)
DeChambeau has never played TPC Sawgrass before, but it's hard to ignore top-5 cashes in three of his past four starts. DeChambeau is ranked 14th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green.
Francesco Molinari - $8,100 (40-1)
Molinari has not had a good season -- far from it. But he's been rounding into form in advance of a tournament at which he's enjoyed great success. Molinari has top-20s in two of his past three starts, including last week at Quail Hollow. He tied for sixth last year at TPC Sawgrass, this third straight top-10 there. For all of Molinari's struggles this season, he ranks seventh on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green.
Tier 3 Values
Brooks Koepka - $7,700 (60-1)
There is potentially some real value in the $7,000s and we're going to start with the reigning U.S. Open champion. Koepka has played only six tournament rounds since missing more than three months with a wrist injury. But he made the cut and tied for 42nd last week at the Wells Fargo, leading us to take a flier on a top golfer at a very favorable price. Koepka has improved every year he's come to Ponte Vedra Island, from MC to T35 to last year's T16.
Patrick Cantlay - $7,500 (50-1)
Cantlay tied for 22nd in his Players debut last year and is a good fit for TPC Sawgrass, ranking 13th in strokes gained: tee to green. He's also 19th in greens in regulation. Cantlay tied for seventh at Harbour Town in his most recent stroke-play start. For what it's worth, he also tied for seventh alongside Reed at the Zurich.
Emiliano Grillo - $7,500 (60-1)
Grillo will be among the highest owned this week, and with good reason. He's finished T9-T16-T3 in his past three stroke-play starts. He tied for 11th here last year. He's ranked 23rd in strokes gained: tee to green. Grillo is also 12th in GIR and 15th in bogey avoidance.
Luke List - $7,400 (80-1)
It's hard to envision why List continues to be so far down on the DraftKings board. He was in the $7,000s last week for the Wells Fargo and recorded yet another top-10. List is one of the biggest hitters, but his game is under control. He's fourth in strokes gained: tee to green, 10th in SG: around and even a pretty-darn-good 27th in bogey avoidance. List missed the cut last year in his Players debut.
Webb Simpson - $7,300 (60-1)
Simpson is another golfer with a head-scratching history at this tournament. He has two top-20s but missed the cut in four of his other six starts. He was T16 last year. Simpson is ranked second in scrambling, sixth in bogey avoidance and 20th in strokes gained: approach. And by now, we all know he is playing out of his mind on the greens, ranking 10th in SG: putting.
Long-Shot Values
Chris Kirk - $7,200 (125-1)
Kirk has as many missed cuts this season (5) as top-25 finishes, but his game is well-suited for this course, as evidenced by three top-15s in the past four years. He is ranked 20th in scrambling, 21st in bogey avoidance, 26th in strokes gained: approach and 37th in tee to green. As we often wonder with Kirk, with those numbers, why isn't he doing better?
Bud Cauley - $7,000 (150-1)
Cauley has not played TPC Sawgrass since missing a second straight cut in 2013. But his injuries are a thing of the past, and he arrives with top-25s in three of his past four strokes-play starts. None of his individual numbers really stands out, other than maybe 24th in strokes gained: putting, but collectively they add up to a ranking of 46th in strokes gained: total.
Alexander Levy - $7,000 (Field, 18-1)
The Frenchman gained entry into his first Players thanks to winning the Trophee Hassan in Morocco last month, his fifth career European Tour title. Levy has elevated his game this season into a top-50 OWGR ranking. He has three other top-10s in 2018, including in the strong fields at Abu Dhabi and Dubai back in January. And Levy followed up his redent win with another strong tournament the following week, a T14 at the Volvo China.
Chez Reavie - $6,800 (Field, 18-1)
All the way down in the sub-$7,000 region we find an ol' reliable. Reavie has certainly cooled in recent weeks, but his steady play matches up nicely here, particularly his ranking of ninth in bogey avoidance. Reavie is also top-20 in greens in regulation and scrambling.
