This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,256
Par: 72
2021 champion: Justin Thomas
Tournament Preview
All the talk over the past few months about the Saudi Golf League wasn't as much about golf as it was money. And for all the bullets that Phil Mickelson has taken spearheading the charge (only to now retreat), he is accomplishing a large part of his goal: He is getting the golfers more cash. A lot more. You don't have to look any further than the total purse and the winner's share for THE PLAYERS Championship, which has soared this year to $20 million total and an unfathomable $3.6 million for the victor. That's up 33 percent from last year's already-huge numbers of $15 million and $2.7 million. Talk about inflation. It was only 25 years ago that the entire purse for THE PLAYERS was a mere $3.5 million.
Already with the biggest tournament payout in golf, THE PLAYERS will now award the champion almost $1 million more than the next biggest tournament winner will get -- $2.7 million for each of the first two playoff events. In all, PGA Tour purses will soar about $35 million this year, and that doesn't include bonuses for the FedEx Cup and the Comcast Business Tour Top 10 (don't ask -- if you don't know what that is, you don't wanna know). Additionally, there's the Player Impact Program (PIP), which totaled $40 million last year and is zooming to $50 million this year. Mickelson corraled $6 million in PIP by finishing second behind Tiger Woods, who got $8 million.
Okay, enough about money and on to the actual golf. THE PLAYERS is the crown jewel of the PGA Tour's domain, just a notch below the majors in terms of prestige and glamor. We can debate whether it is a major, the so-called fifth major. Or we don't have to. What is not debatable is the field.
Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, 2019 winner Rory McIlroy and defending champion Justind Thomas head a 144-man field that includes all but four of top-50 golfers in the world rankings. Two of those three are injured: Bryson DeChambeau, who was originally in the field but had to pull out, and Harris English. Kevin Na's wife is about to give birth. The fourth, to complete the circle from up top, is Mickelson, who is laying low/taking a break/suspended/something. Jason Day, the 2016 champion who withdrew from Bay Hill last week after his mother passed away, is in the field. Rickie Fowler, the 2015 winner, did not qualify, as hard as that is to wrap your head around.
This will be the third time the tournament has been played in March since being repositioned in 2019. Remember, the 2020 PLAYERS was canceled after just one round at the onset of the global pandemic. It had been played in May from 2007-18, after taking place in March for its first 33 years, beginning with Jack Nicklaus capturing the inaugural edition in 1974. Just three players in this year's field have won THE PLAYERS in March -- Adam Scott in 2004, McIlroy in 2019 and Thomas last year. No one has ever won two PLAYERS in a row -- not Nicklaus, not Woods. In fact, it's very hard to even win a second. More on that lower down.
One of the big questions in 2019 was how the course would play differently moving from the middle of spring to late winter. It turned out, there was a big change. The winning score – McIlroy at 16-under vs. Webb Simpson at 18-under the year before – was similar. And the track remained in the middle of the pack on the difficulty meter, 23rd in 2019 and 29th in 2018. That medium-difficulty continued in 2021. But the golfers said the course played longer in the cooler weather. Thomas' winning score last year dropped another couple of notches to 14-under.
Information provided by the PGA Tour showed that from 1997 through 2021 -- 12 times in March, 12 in May -- scores were on average three-quarters of a shot lower in May as opposed to March (72.48 vs. 73.23). There were 5% more rounds in the 60s in May, which makes sense in the warmer climate; but we also have to consider that since most of those March tournaments, meaning pre-2006, golf equipment and the golfers themselves have changed exponentially.
Even though all that sends some mixed messages, the most confounding issue at hand really is figuring out who will play well this week. Sure, that's the case every week, but since the tournament has been held at Sawgrass beginning in 1982, there have only been five multi-time winners. Woods is one of them, but he has only five top-10s in 19 tries. Mickelson, the 2007 winner, missed the cut in six of his past seven visits and owns only three top-10s in 26 starts. This doesn't happen often, maybe nowhere else on Tour, but it's really hard to label anyone a true horse for the course. Thomas, thanks to his victory last year, may come closest, with a T3, T11 and T24 while making the cut in all six of his starts. Others who come close are McIlroy, Scott, Day, Sergio Garcia and Hideki Matsuyama, all of whom has mixed great results with bad ones. This probably is due at least in part to the consistent strength of the fields. The majors and WGCs all let in secondary- or even tertiary-level players, be they aging ex-champs, amateurs, players from lesser Tours or even club pros. Not THE PLAYERS. Of the 144 players in the field, 107 have won a PGA Tour title.
The past five winners, while largely similar in score, show that different types of golfers can win here: Thomas (-14), McIlroy (-16), Webb Simpson (-18), Si Woo Kim (-10) and Jason Day (-15).
Okay, on to the course, which has inched up about 70 yards to 7,256 this year, still short for a par-72. Pete Dye-designed Sawgrass, despite having its quirks here and there, tends to be a pretty standard tee-to-green golf course. Distance is not paramount. Just last year, DeChambeau, of all people, ranked 11th in distance off the tee -- and tied for third. You can get away with mediocre putting -- Thomas ranked only 42nd in the field – though as we always say, great putting can cure just about all ails. For the record, the greens are bermudagrass and on the small side at an average of 5,500 square feet. There's water everywhere, but it truly comes into play on 14 of the 18 holes. No hole is more famous – perhaps anywhere in the world – than the 17th. It's a mere 137 yards, but it's all crystal blue water between the tee and green. Last year, it played well over par (3.227) with 61 water balls. Byeong Hun An shot an octuple-bogey 11 on Thursday. The three hardest holes last year were the par-4 18th, 17 and the par-14th, meaning we could see some wild swings late on Sunday.
If a playoff is needed, it will be a three-hole aggregate for 16, 17 and 18. If golfers are still tied, they'd play 17 and 18 in a loop till there's a winner. The Tour gets it right -- 17 is in the playoff.
Weather-wise, we've got a situation developing. Rain is in the forecast every day until Sunday. So definitely check tee times and an updated forecast to see whether there is an edge somewhere. And while it'll be warm through Friday, it will cool on Saturday and perhaps be downright chilly on Sunday in the low-50s. Oh, and it'll also be windy. Wow, this could be quite a game-changer.
Fun PLAYERS factoids: The list of former champions reads like a wing in the Hall of Fame. Nicklaus, Woods, Mickelson, McIlroy, Norman, Trevino, Floyd, Couples, Price, Scott, Day, Thomas, Love, Duval and Lyle. There have been only five two-time champions since the tournament moved to Sawgrass 40 years ago – Woods, Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Hal Sutton and Steve Elkington – and it has taken a long time to pick up win No. 2. Only Elkington – the 1991 and 1997 champion – won again within 10 years. Sutton's wins, 1983 and 2000, came 17 years apart.
Aging PLAYERS factoid: This is the first PLAYERS with Woods or Mickelson since 1994. Could either -- or both -- be back next year?
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Average/Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2021 - Justin Thomas
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Webb Simpson
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Matt Kuchar
Champion's Profile
Historically there has been very little rough on this track. But of course there is water almost everywhere, technically on 17 holes but in play really on 14. There were 239 double bogeys or worse last year, up from 204 in 2019. Thomas was far from flawless, making seven bogeys and two doubles, including one when he found the water on 17 on Thursday. And he ranked 42nd in SG: Putting. But he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and that was enough to hold off Lee Westwood by a shot. Westwood had no doubles and only six bogeys, but that included a fatal one on 17 on Sunday. In 2019, McIlroy played only six holes over par – five bogeys and one double. He played No. 17 in 2-under. Don't misunderstand – there are birdies to be had and this usually isn't a single-digit-tough track (we'll see whether the weather has other ideas this year). In 2018, playing in May, Simpson played it vanilla safe: He was dead-last in the field in driving distance but first in accuracy. And he won in a romp. The year before, Kim won at 10-under and had only six bogeys, none of them a double. That's asking a lot of anyone, but you get the picture. Simpson was also first in SG: Putting, but more times than not, the winners have ranked far outside the top-10. McIlroy ranked 45th, Kim was 37th, Fowler was 20th, Kaymer was 19th and Woods was 38th. Westwood was third in putting last year and Brian Harman, who tied for third, ranked first. Last year was a bit of a putting aberration, at least historically. And distance off the tee is not paramount. Even Bryson DeChambeau realized that -- he tied for third with Harman last year while ranking 11th in driving distance. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is only 277.5 -- 10.5 under par -- meaning they think the potentially nasty weather will keep scores depressed.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $11,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1000)
Rahm has not been great (for Rahm) for a while now. But 2-14-3-10-21 to start 2022 with a T17 last week at Bay Hill ain't exactly awful. And he has improved greatly at Sawgrass since the switch to March -- 12th two years ago, ninth last year. Rahm is ranked first on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green and greens in regulation, plus sixth in bogey average, and that's just too much good stuff to overlook.
Collin Morikawa - $10,700 (+1600)
Morikawa finished 41st in his lone Sawgrass start last year, but we don't know how you can steer of him this week, or almost any week. He didn't have a good track record at Riviera before finishing runner-up there last month. That was his only stateside start over the last two months, so he doesn't have many rounds, but he's also ranked T4 -- fourth! -- on Tour in SG: Putting. That doesn't seem quite fair. Oh, he's also first on Tour in bogey average.
Justin Thomas - $10,400 (+1000)
As mentioned above, Thomas appears to be the one true horse for this course, playing well here in both May and March, but obviously better in March since he won last year. He hasn't won since, which is a concern, but he does have three top-8s and a top-20 in four 2022 starts. His numbers -- 10th in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, sixth in GIR, fifth in bogey average -- are just a shade below Rahm's.
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,600 (+2500)
Matsuyama has been good but not great since winning for the third time in a year at the Sony in January. He's coming off a T20 at Bay Hill. Matsuyama is not a slam dunk here, since he's missed the cut two of the past three years. But sandwiched in between was a tie for eighth, and he has another top-10 and three more top-25s. He's ranked 16th on Tour in bogey average.
Tier 2 Values
Cameron Smith - $9,400 (+3000)
Smith has played this tournament four times -- missing the cut twice in May and making it twice in March, including T17 last year. He's ranked top-20 on Tour in SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Putting, and is fifth in greens in regulation. Smith won the Tournament of Champions at the beginning for January and then was fourth in a decent Saudi Arabia field.
Daniel Berger - $8,800 (+3500)
Dating back a year to last year's PLAYERS, when he finished ninth, Berger has played 19 times with nine top-10s and four other top-20s. He was fourth last time out at the Honda. He is ranked third on Tour in SG: Approach, fifth in Tee-to-Green and sits fourth in bogey average. Just outstanding numbers for the Floridian.
Sungjae Im - $8,300 (+5000)
We turned to Im two weeks at the Honda and he missed the cut. Then last week again at Bay Hill and he again didn't pay off, albeit with a far-improved tie for 20th. Here's another track where the bogey-averse Im should do well -- and at a much more favorable price than the previous two weeks. Im tied for 17th here last year in his second Sawgrass visit. He's ranked 10th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in bogey average.
Adam Scott - $8,200 (+3000)
We're not sure how Scott ended up all the way down here -- $8,200 does not jibe with 30-1 odds. But we'll take it. He finished 48th last year, breaking a stretch of four straight top-12s. He's played well here in both March and May, winning in March back in 2004. Scott already has three worldwide top-10s in 2022, including at Riviera, and played well at Bay Hill before faltering to T26.
Tier 3 Values
Shane Lowry - $8,000 (+5000)
Lowry has been a quality performer at many of the big events over the past year -- including a top-10 here last year. He's also had three missed cuts and a T16, which is consistent with the inconsistency of most golfers at Sawgrass. Lowry tied for second at the Honda following three straight international top-25s to open 2022. He hasn't played enough rounds to be in the PGA Tour statistical rankings as yet, but he's hitting 70 percent of his greens in regulation and putting better than last year.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $7,700 (+4000)
Fitzpatrick sure looks like a guy who has figured out how to play Sawgrass, and maybe all of Florida, improving every year he's played: MC-MC-46-41-9. He's coming off another top-10 at Bay Hill, his third in three starts on Tour in 2022. It's still a small sample size for Fitzpatrick, but he's ranked seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and T4 in SG: Putting.
Sergio Garcia - $7,400 (+4000)
With neither Tiger nor Phil in the field, Garcia has played this tournament more than anyone else entered except Stewart Cink. Both have played Sawgrass 21 times. Garcia last missed a cut here in 2003, won in 2008, has two other runners-up and was ninth last year. And when you think that this course calls for strong tee-to-green play, Garcia's results make perfect sense.
Talor Gooch - $7,200 (+6500)
Gooch could be fried after Sunday's brutal meltdown at Bay Hill, his second Sunday fade in a month. But at this price, he's worth consideration. Especially since he finished fifth here last year. Gooch is ranked top-15 on Tour in SG: Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green and, despite what you saw on the front nine at Bay Hill, also bogey average.
Long-Shot Values
Chris Kirk - $7,000 (+10000)
Kirk is bound to have clunker one of these weeks, but we're going to try to squeeze one more good week out of him here. His tee-to-green numbers have been outstanding all season -- he's now ranked 12th on Tour. He finished T5 last week at Bay Hill, and that followed a T7 and a T14. Kirk has played Sawgrass 10 times and missed only one cut -- way back in 2011.
Keegan Bradley - $6,900 (+13000)
Bradley's upside is pretty much intertwined with his putter, which usually isn't very good. But the rest of his game is more than adequate, and he's made his past five cuts here, including 29th last year and 16th the year before -- and even T7 in May in 2018. Bradley has five cashes in five 2022 starts, among them a pair of top-12s, including last week at Bay Hill. He's ranked 21st on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Brian Harman - $6,900 (+15000)
The short-hitting Harman has played this tournament better since the switch to March -- T8 in 2019 and T3 last year. he already has a pair of good finishes this season, a third at the Amex and 14th at Phoenix. Harman's strokes-gained stats aren't the best right now. But since he has shown he can figure out his way around this golf course, we're comfortable with this play. He is ranked 12th on Tour in bogey average.
Adam Hadwin - $6,500 (+25000)
Hadwin has made eight of his past 10 cuts dating back to last year and it's no surprise that the two misses were long Riviera and longer Torrey Pines. Hadwin has made four of his past five cuts at Sawgrass, including a couple of top-30s. Short off the tee, Hadwin is 23rd in driving accuracy, 16th in greens in regulation and top-50 on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. Hadwin has played the 17th hole 20 times and landed on the green with his tee ball every time, according to the Tour's pre-tournament notes, tied for most in the field with Chez Reavie.
