This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Course: Port Royal Golf Course (6,828 yards, par 71)
Purse: $6,500,000
Winner: $1,170,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Bermuda Championship was added to the PGA Tour schedule as an opposite field event back in 2019. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China has been cancelled each of the last two years. That in turn has elevated the Bermuda Championship to full status, meaning the winner will receive 500 FedExCup points, an invitation to the 2022 Masters, and a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour. With Butterfield Bank jumping on as a title sponsor to this event the prize fund has increased by $2.5 million this season. Port Royal Golf Course is the longest course on the island, but at less than 6,900 yards it is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour calendar. Port Royal previously hosted the Grand Slam of Golf from 2009-14 and then underwent a massive renovation to prepare itself to host a full-field PGA Tour event.
The first two winners of the Bermuda Championship both featured PGA Tour veterans coming in off missing their previous four cuts. In 2019, Brendon Todd went onto finish first and fourth the next two events following his breakthrough at Port Royal, while Brian Gay didn't do much of anything last season after he picked up the win in 2020. The two-highest ranked players in the field this week are 2018 Masters winner Patrick Reed (24) and Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick (26) who is coming off a win at the Andalucia Masters. Danny Willett, Greame McDowell, and Jason Dufner are the other three majors winners in the field. The elevated status of this event provides a great opportunity for recent Korn Ferry Tour graduates to gain valuable FedExCup points, or as we have seen the previous two years a veteran that finds form again.
Bermuda is known for its extreme weather, and that will be the biggest defense of the golf course this week. The forecast calls for high winds on Thursday that will average between 25 and 35 miles per hour. Friday will be the best weather day of the week, then there will be a high chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures should average in the high 70's over the course of the entire week.
Recent Champions
2020 – Brian Gay (-15)
2019 – Brendon Todd (-24)
Key Stats to Victory
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
The narrow fairways at Port Royal will neutralize many of the long hitters this week. That is why the first two editions have seen two of the shortest and most accurate hitters end up taking home the trophy. Most of the field should be playing some the same place if they hit their drive well. With the expected high winds, judging approaches will be very tricky. GIR numbers will be important since the greens are small in general. The bermudagrass putting surfaces will only be running around 10.5 on the Stimpmeter to try to avoid any balls moving on the greens. The slower speeds should allow for more aggressive putts. Lastly, scrambling should be more important this week than the last few tournaments we have seen due to the high winds and small targets both off the tee and coming into the greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,900)
This kind of course should be tailor-made for Fitzpatrick. He is not a long hitter, but a very accurate one. The Englishman also is an extremely good scrambler and putter. He proved two weeks ago at a very challenging setup at Valderrama he could win going away and he will be looking to do the same in Bermuda.
Mito Pereira ($11,600)
Pereira has gone 3-for-3 this season, including a solo third at the Fortinet Championship. His ball-striking has been quite phenomenal to start the 2021-22 campaign, ranking 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in SG: Approach, second in GIR percentage, and second in SG: Tee-to-Green. Pereira should gain confidence on some slower putting surfaces like these at Port Royal.
Seamus Power ($11,500)
Power has finished top-40 in each of the first two editions of the Bermuda Championship and comes into this one in even better form. Power now has seven top-25's in his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour, including his breakthrough win at the Barbasol Championship. Power ended last season fifth in SG: Around-the-Green, second in scrambling, and 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Adam Hadwin ($11,000)
Hadwin is coming off a T6 in his last start at the Shriners Children's Open. There he was very solid across the board, ranking top-20 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Putting, and SG: Tee-to-Green. Hadwin is another one of those short, but very accurate hitters, but the strength of his game is scrambling and putting.
Longer Shots with Value
Russell Knox ($9,800)
Knox is another who fits the profile beautifully this week, which is probably why he has gone T11-T16 in two career starts in this event. Last season Knox ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, proximity to the hole, and scrambling. The Scot always seems to play well in windy conditions.
David Lipsky ($9,800)
Lipsky finished 12th on in the KFT points standings last season, notching a win and three-runner up finishes. He is in good form with a T4 at the Andalucia Masters two weeks ago and a T22 at the Fortinet Championship. Lipsky is top-30 in SG: Off-the-Tee and GIR percentage early in the season.
Nick Hardy ($9,400)
If you're looking for a really strong ball striker with great value this week, the former Illinois standout might be your guy. Hardy finished last season fourth in GIR percentage, fifth in total driving, and second in the ball-striking stat on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Hardy has gotten off to a solid start this season on the PGA Tour, finishing T36-T26 in two starts.
Greyson Sigg ($8,500)
Sigg is another strong KFT graduate who has shown a quality all around game. Last season Sigg ranked seventh in scoring average, 15th in GIR percentage, 25th in putting average, and eighth in scrambling. The 26-year-old has scored a pair of wins in the last five months and has made two of his first three cuts since moving out on the PGA Tour.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is probably the weakest field of the season to this point, so there certainly is not a whole lot of depth this week. Matthew Fitzpatrick to me is head and shoulders above any other player in the field for this course and the given conditions, so there's value in the fact that there are six players within just $700 of him. Patrick Reed, Danny Willett, and Guido Migliozzi are all players that are trendy this week, but I tend to lean away from given their lack of consistent results lately. This is a place where we have seen recent KFT graduates play well in the past, so don't be afraid to hit some of the best players from that tour last season, even if they haven't quite had the results yet on the PGA Tour. Lastly, what do you do with Brian Gay? Well he's gone T3-1st here in two career starts, but has just one other finish inside the top-25 since the first Bermuda Championship back in 2019. At $8,800 this week, I anticipate his ownership percentage will be one of, if not the highest of all players under $9,000. Given his incredible inconsistencies over the last couple years, there is simply no value there.
