This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Sony Open in Hawaii
Course: Waialae Country Club (7,044 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,300,000
Winner: $1,494,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The second leg of the PGA Tour's newly minted "Opening Drive" takes us back to historic Waialae Country Club and the Sony Open in Hawaii. It is the first full-field event of the 2024 season after last week at Kapalua was a Signature Event that featured only those that won a PGA Tour event in 2023 or finished Top 50 in the FedExCup Standings. The 144-player field at the Sony Open will play two rounds before a traditional 36-hole cut is made and the top-65 and ties do battle on the weekend for a tournament-record prize purse and a traditional 500 FedExCup points for a standard event. An early season win from a player further down the priority rankings would not only secure a spot at The Sentry next season, it would also secure a position in the final seven Signature Events in 2024, along with an invite to the Masters and a two-year PGA Tour exemption.
Some of the key players making their return to action this week in Honolulu include Gary Woodland who had brain surgery in September and Will Zalatoris who has not made an official PGA Tour since the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play last March after undergoing back surgery. Kapalua winner Chris Kirk will look to pull off the Hawaii double this week, something Justin Thomas was able to do in 2017 when he set the PGA Tour's 72-hole scoring record at 253, which included a 59 in round one. Speakings of 253, that record was matched last fall at the RSM Classic by Ludvig Aberg en route to his first PGA Tour victory. The Swede tops the salary board at the Sony Open this week.
Defending champion Si Woo Kim is one of seven previous Sony Open champions in the field along with Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, Ryan Palmer and Zach Johnson. There's also a list of notable PGA Tour rookies making their season debuts including Korn Ferry Tour Points List No. 1 Ben Kohles, Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Pierceson Coody. There's also five of the ten players who received a PGA Tour card based on the DP World Tour's Race to Dubai that will tee it up at Waialae, including European Ryder Cup member Robert MacIntyre.
A big rain storm Monday and Tuesday will provide soft conditions for the players during the Sony Open. The sun should be out for the four tournament rounds with temperatures extending into the upper 70s. The wind strength should be moderate and similar to what players faced a week ago at Kapalua with the strongest of which coming in Friday's second round. The winning score has hit at least 20-under in 7 of the last 11 years and I expect that trend to continue in 2024 given the expected soft conditions provided by early-week storms.
Recent Champions
2023 - Si Woo Kim (-18)
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
2021 - Kevin Na (-21)
2020 - Cameron Smith (-11)
2019 - Matt Kuchar (-22)
2018 - Patton Kizzire (-17)
2017 - Justin Thomas (-27)
2016 - Fabian Gomez (-20)
2015 - Jimmy Walker (-23)
2014 - Jimmy Walker (-17)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- Driving Accuracy
- SG: Putting
- Birdie Average
Champion's Profile
Kapalua and Waialae might both be on Hawaiian Islands but they couldn't be further from each other. Kapalua features dramatic elevation changes with extremely large fairways and greens in addition to massive slopes. Waialae is flat as can be with defined tree-lined corridors and very little slope on the fairways and greens. It is the definition of target golf with the lines on the canvas already drawn waiting for you to fill it in as opposed to the blank canvas of Kapalua.
You certainly don't need lenghth at Waialae and we have seen a lot of short hitters have success at this venue because missed shots off-the-tee are punished. If the three-inch bermuda rough is not penalizing enough, overhanging branches and poor angles to greens will make getting the ball close a real challenge for missed fairways. The greens while much smaller than Kapalua are still the eighth-largest on the PGA Tour. SG: Approach will take precedent over GIR numbers and a mediocre short game should be easier to cover up at Waialae. With the expected low scores, you're also going to have to sink a lot of putts to be able to win this week. Last season Kim led the field in SG: Approach and in 2022, Matsuyama led in SG: Putting en route to their respective wins.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Russell Henley ($11,600)
Henley didn't have his best showing at Kapalua, but I expect a lot more from him on a golf course that fits his game much better. Last season Henley was the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour and ranked second in proximity to the hole. The Georgia product stormed in as a rookie and won the Sony Open going away in 2013 the last time the Tour had a calendar-based season. Since then Henley has compiled four more top-20's at Waialae, including a playoff defeat two years ago.
Corey Conners ($10,900)
Waialae is just built for a player like Conners. It's really no surprise that he has had success at this course given his accuracy both off the tee and into the greens. The Canadian is 5-for-5 with top-12 finishes in each of his last four starts at the Sony Open. The only concern we have with Conners is on the greens, but he is averaging over two strokes gained putting per tournament at Waialae so clearly he sees the lines very well here.
Eric Cole ($10,700)
The Cole train kept on moving down the tracks at Kapalua en route to a solid T14 finish. That comes on the heels of top-four finishes in four of his last five starts to close 2023. Cole has perhaps the best combination of iron play in putting in the field this week as last season he ranked top-20 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. Even in one of the better Sony Open fields in history, there is still a lot of value at this price from an absolute birdie machine.
The Middle Tier
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200)
I feel like taking a chance with this one. Matsuyama had fallen at No. 50 in the OWGR, his lowest ranking since he stormed onto the scene has a 19-year-old rookie in 2013. However, Waialae is a place that Matsuyama loves and could be a catalyst for a turnaround in 2024. He has made seven straight cuts here with four top-30 finishes and that win in 2022. Matsuyama ranked 12th last season in SG: Approach and was absolutely dialed in with his wedges.
Justin Rose ($9,900)
It wasn't a great result at The Sentry for Rose, but he has to be leaving at least with some optimism considering the course-record tying 12-under 61 on Sunday. Now the Englishman heads over to Waialae where he hasn't played that often in his long career, but has found success whenever he does going 4-for-5 with four top-20s and a runner-up in 2017. Last season Rose got his iron play back up to his lofty standards at 17th in SG: Approach and 14th in proximity to go along with a really great short game and putter.
J.J. Spaun ($9,500)
Spaun had a strong close to 2023 with 10 straight made cuts and four top-15 finishes in that stretch. Iron play was not typically something people would think about Spaun's game but last season he ranked top-20 in GIR percentage and proximity. He was also third in scrambling and top-25 in both par-3 and par-4 scoring, which makes up the bulk of Waialae CC. It's not a surprise that he reversed a trend of poor finishes at the Sony Open with a T12 last season given the improvements in his game.
The Long Shots
Ryo Hisatsune ($8,600)
Be early, not late, on the 21-year-old phenom. It took one full season on the DP World Tour for Hisatsune to notch a PGA Tour card. He won the Cazoo Open de France last September and ended 2023 with six straight finishes of T21-or-better. There is really no weaknesses in Hisatsune's game as he ranked top-30 on the DPWT in driving accuracy, GIR percentage, SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting.
Vince Whaley ($8,200)
Whaley earned conditional status for this season thanks to some stellar play down the stretch of 2023. He made the cut in all six fall events he played in and tallied three top-15s and five top-30s. Whaley doesn't have one particular area of his game that really stands out, but there was positive strokes gained during that run to end 2023 in just about every category. This is a great price considering the other names around him.
Hayden Buckley ($8,000)
It's been a struggle for Buckley the last few months, but I think some time off and a full reset should get the 27-year-old back playing the kind of golf he is capable of. Waialae is a place he clearly likes the look of, notching a T12 in 2022 and a runner-up last year. Buckley is a terrific driver, ranking top-10 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and total driving. Short game is his biggest weakness, but Waialae is typically not all that challenging around the greens. We see a lot of eagles at the two par 5s and Buckley ranked fourth last season in eagles per hole.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The first full-field event of the year is typically one of the harder events to handicap. Most players have had nearly two months off and it's unclear how sticky the form they showed in the fall will be. We are looking to get six to the weekend and to do that the best bet is to rely on players who are accurate from tee to green and have had a solid history at Waialae. Some of the higher priced players I'd avoid this week are Zalatoris ($11,100) because the price is too high for the risk, and Sahith Theegala ($10,300) because he won't be able to get away with the wild drives like he did at Kapalua. There's a number of interesting names near the bottom of the board all coming with their own degree of risk. Alejandro Tosti ($7,900) and Takumi Kanaya ($7,800) both have pretty solid upside this week, while Dylan Wu ($7,600), Ben Martin ($7,300) and Aaron Baddeley ($7,300) carry a higher floor.
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