This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
ZOZO Championship
Course: ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club (7,079 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,500,000
Winner: $1,530,000 and 500 FedExCup Fall points
Tournament Preview
The ZOZO Championship is the fifth of eight FedExCup Fall events on the calendar, but it is certainly the most unique of the bunch. Apart from the fact that it is played in Japan, this is the only event that is a limited-field no-cut tournament. That is part of the reason why this is the one fall event that is consistently able to get commitments from top players each year. This 78-man field is made up of the top 60 available players from the previous season's FedExCup Standings, the top seven players in the current season Japan Golf Tour money list, the top three players at the Bridgestone Open and eight sponsor's exemptions. It always gives this tournament a nice flavor and highlights some of the top Japanese players.
Collin Morikawa returns to defend his ZOZO Championship title. The six-shot victory last year is still his only victory since the DP World Tour Championship in 2021. He will be joined by two-time major winner this year Xander Schauffele and 2021 ZOZO Championship winner Hideki Matsuyama. All three of these players ranks inside the top 10 of the OWGR and will be making their first starts since the Presidents Cup. Fellow Presidents Cup members Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Min Woo Lee and Si Woo Kim will also peg it just outside of Tokyo this week.
The main battle in the fall is for those players hoping to retain full status in 2025 and stay inside the top 125 of the FedExCup Fall standings, and this week can play a critical factor. The only PGA Tour members who are currently outside the top 125 in this field are Joel Dahmen (129) and Gary Woodland (137) who are in on sponsor exemptions. It's an opportunity for free FedExCup points for both players along with all those that made it into the field trying to give themselves a cushion to 126th place in the standings. With no-cut and some unproven Japanese players in the field, the chance is certainly there for those hoping to bring a haul of FedExCup points back to the U.S.
The four ZOZO Championships that have been played at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club has yet to see a player finish at 20-under-par. Tiger Woods got the closest in his 82nd and most recent PGA Tour win back in 2019 when he won by three strokes. This is normally a week we see a lot of rain, but the forecast is pretty encouraging for at least the four tournament rounds in that regard. Winds also should only average around 8-12 mph with gusts struggling to reach 20 mph at any point. I'm anticipating some pretty good scoring .
Recent Champions
2023 - Collin Morikawa (-14)
2022 - Keegan Bradley (-15)
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
2020 - Patrick Cantlay (-23)*
2019 - Tiger Woods (-19)
* = played at Sherwood Country Club
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- Par-3 Scoring
Champion's Profile
From the tee Narashino certainly looks like your standard parkland-style course, but there is a lot of nuance as well. The biggest thing that jumps out on approach is the fact that each hole has two greens. This was a popular staple in golf course design back in the day having one surface that thrives in winter and one that thrives in the summertime. Many golf courses in Japan still feature the double greens like Narashino does.
A par-70 just under 7,100 yards seems pretty straightforward, but the distance variabilities make it a unique challenge. Iron play has been a big key to all the champions here and with five par-3s approach play becomes of even more importance. There will be plenty of opportunities to hit wedges into flags with four par-4s measuring under 405 yards along with potentially the third shots on the three par-5s. That being said there are also five par-4s that measure over 485 yards, so irons of every length will need to be on point to shoot some good scores at Narashino.
Control of your ball is going to be the biggest key both off the tee and into the greens. The fairways are pretty narrow and are well bunkered with trees looking to deter a second shot into greens. It's not going to be a course where driver will be needed that often. That being said, the shots around the green are actually fairly straightfoward. Most missed GIR's are going to find one of the greenside bunkers that are pretty flat and should lead to a good chance at par.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Collin Morikawa ($12,600)
Why not start with the defending champion? Morikawa has been so consistent this year despite not winning. He's finished T28-or-better in his last 15 starts with six top-5 finishes in that stretch. He's been gaining strokes in every part of the game consistently during this run. Morikawa ranks eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green and fourth in putts per GIR on the season. He has played in every edition of the ZOZO Championship in Japan.
Sungjae Im ($11,800)
Im is the first man in the $11K range, but I think he could have just as easily been in the $12K range this week. Im has finished T12-or-better in 11 of his last 15 starts. He also has a T3 and T12 in his last three tries at Narashino. Im ranks top-35 this year in SG: Off-the-Tee, proximity to the hole, scrambling and putts per GIR. It's hard to find anything he doesn't do well.
Kurt Kitayama ($11,100)
While most of these guys up near the top are coming in teeing it up for the first time this fall, Kitayama is already in form having finished T25-T9 the last two weeks. What encourages me most about both of those results is the fact that he ranked second in SG: Approach at both events. The ball-striking all year has been pretty sensational ranking 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Approach, 11th in proximity and 11th in par-3 scoring.
The Middle Tier
Doug Ghim ($10,000)
Speaking of elite ball-striking, look no further than Ghim who has teed it up in the first four fall events and progressively got better going T47-T33-T25 before a runner-up last week in Las Vegas. Given the demand for good iron play at Narashino, Ghim could be trending right towards his first career win. He ranks fifth in SG: Approach, fifth in GIR percentage and eighth in proximity this year.
J.J. Spaun ($9,900)
Spaun continues to be an approach demon gaining strokes in that department in his last eight starts apart from a fluke WD at the Sanderson Farms. Spaun now ranks 17th in SG: Approach, 18th in GIR percentage and ninth in proximity this year on the PGA Tour. He has made nine straight cuts apart from that WD and has finished T25 and T6 the last two years at the ZOZO Championship.
Rico Hoey ($9,600)
It's hard to ignore the strong work Hoey has been doing. Following his T3 finish last week in which he ranked first in proximity, Hoey has now made the cut in 10 straight starts. During that stretch he has racked up four top-8 finishes. Hoey ranks second in total driving, ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in GIR percentage this season. His improvement the past few months with the putter has been a big reason for the uptick in results.
The Long Shots
Lee Hodges ($8,200)
If there's one thing Hodges has done well this year it's iron play. He ranks 30th in SG: Approach and has gained on approach 11 of his last 14 starts. Hodges will also be able to navigate the tight corridors of Narashino, as he ranks 26th in driving accuracy this year. The 29-year-old had a top-10 finish in Utah a couple weeks ago and has a pair of top-25s at the ZOZO Championship.
Ben Kohles ($8,000)
Kohles does fit the type of player I'd want to go after this week. Yes he's short, but you don't have to be long to contend at Narashino. That said, he ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and he also has gained strokes on approach in nine of his last ten starts. The putter has been the issue of late for Kohles, but prior to losing in five straight on the greens he gained in seven straight. This seems like a good fit to deploy him and see if he can't find better luck on these new surfaces.
Zac Blair ($7,500)
I feel like Blair and Kohles are two very similar players heading into this week. Blair is another short, but supremely accurate hitter off the tee. His iron play has also taken big strokes of late gaining strokes on approach in five of his last eight starts. Apart from a T13 at the Procore it's been a struggle on the greens this fall, but historically Blair has proven to be a very good putter. This will be his second look at Narashino after a T38 last year.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is one of the most top-heavy fields I can remember. Any of the $11K+ options make a lot of sense all the way up to Schauffele with a hefty $13,200 price tag. The problem is how weak the $8K and $7K range are. It's hard to really trust much in there given it seems like they just kind of threw in a bunch of the Japan Tour players in there, who it's hard to really project what they are going to do this week against PGA Tour competition. That all being said, I think the correct formula to success around Narashino is finding fairways and sticking it close. This isn't a course you want to be out of position too often. Find options that excel in those two areas and if they have played well recently or at this course in the past, that's just a bonus.
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