Arnold Palmer Invitational
The popularity of One and Done (OAD) continues to rise, and it only made sense to start a new column with the complete focus on one of the most fun and strategic forms of fantasy golf out there. Each week RotoWire's top golf experts will provide their favorite OAD play and fade for the upcoming event. As you'll see, there are some players we agree on and some players that there are some differing opinions on. Each of us play in a RotoWire OAD league together and there's plenty of motivation to try and stand above the rest.
If there's one thing you get out of this article it should be how important the signature events are in OAD leagues. Even if you strike out at a couple of the regular events like the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic the last couple weeks, all will be forgotten if you land a top finish in one of the tournaments with a $20 million purse. THE PLAYERS Championship and the majors also feature significant purses. This early in the season you can go from the basement to the top of the board if you pick the winning golfer given the nice $4 million pay day up for grabs for the Arnold Palmer Invitational champion. In our league, two people have doubled up the entire rest of the league in earnings because they hit on Ludvig Aberg winning The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago.
Course Tidbits
- Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
- Location: Orlando, Florida
- Purse: $20 million ($4 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
- Scoring Average Last 5 Years: 73.2
Bay Hill is annually one of the toughest tests on the schedule. It requires all facets of your game to be on point to be able to win. There are a number of forced carries where bombers can take some different lines, but thick rough is there to punish any wayward drive. The greens are among some of the largest on Tour, but it gives up one of the lowest GIR percentages of the year because of how firm they are and that penal rough. There will be a number of challenging shots presented around these greens and the best scramblers will be able to shine.
Being a Florida course, Bay Hill has plenty of water hazards which can reach up and bite you at any point. It's also extremely flat and prone to gusty winds. Thursday and Sunday could both see gusts at over 30 mph, so players will need to be able to control their trajectories with the irons to be able to get the ball close to the hole. Bay Hill has a brutally tough set of par-3s that almost every player will take a par on and run to the next tee. The par-5s are gettable, however, and that's where players will need to make their score to offset the bogeys everywhere else.
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Tournament History/Current Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational: OAD Picks
Anytime you use your Scheffler chip, it feels risky and not using him at The PLAYERS is going to potentially change your entire season, but I have to stick with my gut here. Scheffler is clearly the best play this week and that will also be the case at The PLAYERS, the difference is, if you take him this week, you'll have maybe 25% of your league on the same side, whereas at The PLAYERS, you might have 50% on your side. This is the separation spot, if he wins here and not at The PLAYERS, then you've got a leg up on your league. If the opposite happens, then obviously it's a long haul to get back into the mix. I'd rather make a strategical play and be wrong, than just flow with the pack the entire season and never realize where it went wrong. If I'm wrong this week, then I know I have to take chances the rest of the way, which I'm fine with. --Greg Vara
I think most people will overlook Morikawa considering he's missed the cut here the last two years, but I think that's more of anomaly as there's no reason to think his game doesn't suit Bay Hill. He led the field in ball-striking by a wide margin at the event in 2020 en route to a top 10 finish. Morikawa's iron play has also been dialed in which fueled a runner-up finish to start the year.
--Ryan Pohle
I know that as a golf analyst I'm not supposed to sound like I'm not a golf analyst. We're supposed to sound rational with well thought out takes. But really -- we're just like you! Here's my thinking, and maybe yours: There's a good chance Scottie Scheffler wins this tournament for the third time in four years. But if he doesn't win, and we've burned the best player in the game in the beginning of March, well, that would suck and we'd feel dumb. Of course, logically, it makes no difference when you play Scheffler. The $4 million winner's share equals the biggest in golf, and the field is only 72, lots fewer than THE PLAYERS and all the majors. This might be his best chance to win all year on a course he owns facing off against a small number of golfers. Therefore, I'm going with Tommy Fleetwood. --Len Hochberg
With $4M up top at this Signature Event, it's not yet time to get cute unless you're in a massively sized pool and somehow already facing a significant early deficit. Coming off the second-best SG: Approach performance of his young PGA Tour career en route to victory at The Genesis Invitational, I'm comfortable clicking Aberg as a stellar Bay Hill course fit at potentially discounted OAD ownership, while others struggle to separate independent events and worry about his chances to win twice in a row somewhere that he doesn't own a previous top-20 result. Elite driving ability and long-iron prowess are his obvious advantages here as he looks primed to manufacture par-5 scoring opportunities, but what might go overlooked is the fact that Aberg gained a collective 8.5 strokes putting on these quick bermuda greens throughout his first two API appearances. --Bryce Danielson
Anytime we go to a challenging golf course, iron play and scrambling should be at the forefront. If you're hitting quality approach shots and getting up-and-down when you do miss greens, it's certainly easier to keep bogeys, or worse, off the card. Thomas has been one of the best at the combination of the two for years now. He has gained on approach in 11 straight tournaments and led the field in SG: Approach last time out at The Genesis Invitational. Thomas has also gained strokes around the greens in 18 of his last 19 starts. The 15-time PGA Tour winner hasn't won since his triumph at the 2022 PGA Championship, but with five top-10s in his last seven starts, this seems like it just might be the week. --Ryan Andrade
Arnold Palmer Invitational: OAD Fades
Morikawa started the season strong with a runner-up at the Sentry, but his past two starts have just been okay. He finished T17 at Pebble and at the Genesis, but remember, those are smaller fields, so it seems that his game is not quite where it was in early January. Now he returns to a course where he's had little success over the years (two MCs, in four starts). Morikawa can turn it around on a dime, but I wouldn't take a chance on him this week. --Greg Vara
It appears that Cantlay will be one of the most popular choices following his second top 5 in three events, most recently at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. However, Cantlay's overall results during the Florida Swing have been modest, and he was T36 here last year. I prefer saving him for Hilton Head or the Travelers, where he projects better. --Ryan Pohle
Outside of hitting into a screen at the TGL, he's been idle since the season-opening Sentry two months ago. This isn't so much a fade -- bad week, missed cut, whatever -- as much as I don't think he'll be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday. Let's see how Schauffele has recovered from his rib injury. --Len Hochberg
Many folks that are saving the alpha Scheffler/McIlroy/Aberg trio are pivoting to either Cantlay or Justin Thomas, but I don't love Cantlay's fit in Orlando of all places, and I especially want more win equity from someone that might crack the 10-percent picked mark with this $20M purse. Over his last 36 measured rounds, Cantlay ranks 58th or worse among this 72-man field in Prox: 175-200, Par-3: 200-225 Efficiency and scrambling. Mapping out possible Cantlay spots on the schedule, it could be wise to keep him as an option for the RBC Heritage's Signature Event if you're into course history and would rather eat some chalk there than at Bay Hill. --Bryce Danielson
When you lack competitive reps, the last thing that usually comes back is your short game. Bay Hill is not the course you want to have some rust around the greens because there are going to be a lot of scrambling opportunities this week. Schauffele has basically had to just rest his body for the better part of the last two months to try to let this rib injury heal, so we really don't know the state of his game. There will be plenty of other quality places we can play Schauffele down the road. It's too early to get desperate and take that kind of risk at this event. --Ryan Andrade
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