This article is part of our PickGuru Golf series.
PickGuru is offering a category picks game for this week's tournament!
The Birdie (£10) contest features a minimum £1,000 guaranteed prize pool, while there is also a Par (£2) contest available.
PickGuru games are only available to residents of the United Kingdom.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
This marks the second invitational event in the last three weeks. The elite field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be capped at 120 players, with the winner receiving a three-year exemption and 550 FedExCup points. In addition, the champion will be given a red cardigan sweater in memory of the one and only Arnold Palmer. That tradition was started in 2017 following "The King's" passing the year before. Bay Hill Club & Lodge has been the host of this event since 1979 and challenges every aspect of a player's game.
Profiling the Winner
Bay Hill is a stock par 72 that tips at 7,466 yards. It has undergone a number of changes in recent years to continue to test the best in the game amid the massive gains in distance. Much like we saw at PGA National, water will feature prominently on a number of holes and can ruin a good round in a hurry.
Bryson DeChambeau's victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2021 broke a streak of five consecutive non-American winners at Bay Hill. The scoring here is directly impacted by the weather conditions. When Tyrrell Hatton prevailed in 2020 at just four-under-par, it was the worst winning score since 1983. Players faced extremely blustery conditions that week that made controlling distances near impossible. This time around the scoring should be a little better. Winds should average between 10-15 miles per hour throughout the event, and no precipitation is expected to fall during the week.
The key to playing Bay Hill well is taking advantage of the par-5s. This is why we have seen long hitters have success here over the years. All four of them are reachable for the longest players and they should play as the easiest four holes on the course. Over the last couple years, the grounds crew has decided to grow the rough up, which has placed more of an emphasis on hitting fairways.
On the flip side of the gettable par-5s at Bay Hill are the extremely challenging par-3s. The quartet averages 217 yards from the tips and requires a very precise shot with a long iron or hybrid to give yourself a reasonable birdie chance.
Putting and short game are always key at Bay Hill as well. Missing greens in regulation will leave players with a number of tricky shots from tight lies to elevated greens. The putting surfaces are bermudagrass and are annually some of the fastest greens on Tour. Rory McIlroy led the field in both SG: Putting and scrambling when he won the API back in 2018.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players included: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler
Guru Verdict: In a category with three other great players, the difference here is course history. McIlroy has teed it up seven times at Bay Hill and owns six top-11 finishes, including his win in 2018. The other three players have combined for just four starts here with a best finish of T15.
Front-runners
Players included: Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton
Guru Verdict: Fitzpatrick is coming in off a T6 at Pebble Beach and a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open. He has strong course history with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts at Bay Hill, including a runner-up in 2019. Im is coming off a missed cut last week at the Honda Classic, but ranks eighth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-green and has a pair of third place finishes at the API.
Challengers
Players included: Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, Paul Casey, Marc Leishman
Guru Verdict: Leishman is in the mix of a very strong season on the PGA Tour with six top-20s in eight starts. He grades out well through the bag, ranking 15th in SG: Putting and 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green. The Aussie loves Bay Hill, notching a win in 2017 among five top-25s in his last six starts. Zalatoris finished T10 last year at the API and leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green.
Contenders
Players included: Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Talor Gooch, Sam Burns
Guru Verdict: Homa is rolling right now, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts. He ranks 31st in SG: Putting and 20th in birdie average this season. The California native is also fifth in par-5 scoring average. Homa finished T24-T10 in two starts at Bay Hill. Burns fits the profile for success here, but he missed his last three cuts.
Clutch Putters
Players included: Jason Kokrak, Cameron Tringale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Gary Woodland, Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell
Guru Verdict: Mitchell has been one of the top players on Tour in 2022. In five starts he owns four top-12 finishes, including one at last week's Honda Classic. Mitchell also has a pair of top-6 finishes in three starts at the API. He ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 11th in scoring average this season. Kokrak has six career top-20 finishes at Bay Hill, while Horschel is one of the best putters on Tour at the moment and owns four top-25s in five starts overall.
Big Hitters
Players included: Sergio Garcia, Maverick McNealy, Corey Conners, Lanto Griffin, Thomas Pieters, Erik van Rooyen, Sepp Straka
Guru Verdict: McNealy has made 9-of-10 cuts this season and has notched five top-25s, including a T7 finish two weeks ago at Riviera. McNealy has been very balanced through the bag this season, ranking 27th in SG: Putting and 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He is also 16th in par-5 scoring average. Garcia has six career top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, while Straka is coming off his first career win at The Honda Classic.
International Stars
Players included: Nicolai Hojgaard, Ian Poulter, Seamus Power, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai
Guru Verdict: This is probably the toughest category of the week to call. You have some intriguing young talent in Hojgaard and Rai amongst four other veterans. Rose gets the nod, however. He has made the cut in all six of his PGA Tour starts this season, including a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Rose is also 19th in total driving, sixth in proximity to the hole, 11th in scrambling and ninth in putts per round. The Englishman has had plenty of success at Bay Hill, with five top-10s and eight top-25s.
Ryder Cup Hopefuls
Players included: Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Sahith Theegala, Kevin Na, Chris Kirk
Guru Verdict: Nobody among those who have played at least 12 rounds at Bay Hill over the last five years averaged more birdies or better on a per-round basis than Kirk. That's a major reason why he finished top-15 in four of his last five starts at the API. Kirk is rounding into form, coming off a T14 in Phoenix and a T7 at The Honda Classic. Henley is one of the best ball strikers on Tour, but hasn't quite figured out Bay Hill. Na, on the other hand, has an elite short game and has three career top-6 finishes at the API.
Editor's Note: Here are additional PickGuru suggestions from RotoWire's Len Hochberg and PickGuru's Matt Hardy:
Ryan's Selections
Premium Picks: Rory McIlroy
Front-runners: Matt Fitzpatrick
Challengers: Marc Leishman
Contenders: Max Homa
Clutch Putters: Keith Mitchell
Big Hitters: Maverick McNealy
International Stars: Justin Rose
Ryder Cup Hopefuls: Chris Kirk
