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2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Norman Never Goes Away
The last time Hideki Matsuyama had a top 10 on the PGA TOUR was the 2023 PLAYERS Championship. With pre-tournament odds over +8000 depending on the book (Sunday AM he was +12000), the bizzarro world of betting golf in 2024 continues…
After three weeks on-site covering the world's best, I'm still not sure if a betting favorite can win on the PGA TOUR. I bring this up for a very specific reason. The Mexico Open at Vidanta has just a couple of elite players. Three of the top 40 in the OWGR are in the field. Until the top of the betting board proves themselves worthy, we are going to try and maximize our first win of the season.
Anybody who is starting to get edgy, need I remind you our first win last year came at the Honda Classic with Chris Kirk in late February. Following Kirk's playoff win, RTL rattled off 13 more. Golf is a long run, let's stay sharp and unlike Scottie Scheffler's putting, there is no need to change anything. We know our process works!
For the third time, the Mexico Open is being played as an official PGA TOUR event at Vidanta Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta. Set alongside the Pacific coastline, the players have a quick commute south from Los Angeles down to Mexico. Thankfully, weather concerns will not be an issue south of the Border. The initial forecast this week calls for sunny skies, no rain, and temperatures in the mid 80s every afternoon.
The Vidanta Resort course is set very close to the shore. Much like Riviera, the wind will kick up in the afternoon off the water. An eight to 10 mph breeze out of the SSW will blow and provide a challenge to the PM players all four days. The average winning score the past two years is 21 under par. Jon Rahm won in 2022, and Tony Finau is our defending champion. Each of them had very short odds to win that week and I don't expect that tradition to continue.
Finau's futility with the flatstick is only matched by Scheffler, so outside of a favorable placement or matchup position, we are not going there. The par 71 scorecard has some unique features. There are four par 5s, FIVE par 3s, and nine par 4s. This is one of the few courses where par 3 scoring can really differentiate players. Twenty-eight percent of the holes the field of 132 players will compete on are 3s. The top 65 and ties earn entrance into the weekend and will vie for $8.1 million dollars. I know, a far cry from $20 million at Riviera, but many of these middle tier guys have not played in a month.
Our next weekly winner will take home $1.46 million dollars and those valuable FedEx Cup points. I'm certainly not sponsored by the TOUR, so I only mention them because I hear about it at each venue. The regular PGA TOUR card holders have trouble setting a schedule and playing week after week. I believe we will continue to see more longshot winners, especially on the non-signature weeks. Each start has become increasingly valuable for these players and when anyone gets close over the weekend do not be surprised if they step up and take home the trophy.
Vidanta Vallarta is 7,500 yards long. It is one of the longest non-major championship courses on TOUR. Played at sea level, ball speed is a definite advantage. Any course where Cam Champ has back-to-back top 10s, length is a factor. Greg Norman's resort design has 106 bunkers and twelve holes where water comes into play. The ground is covered in Seaside Paspalum. A hearty turf surface we find at almost all of the seaside destinations. A couple of grass comps I have considered are the TOUR stops in Punta Cana, Puerto Rico and the fall Mexico stop.
Corales in Punta Cana is an excellent comp venue for two reasons, first length, then agronomy, and field strength. As a secondary event to the signature tournaments each year, the lower PGA TOUR tier loves to take advantage of the weeks with two courses on the schedule. Finau won at Vidanta Vallarta with a final total of 24 under par in 2023. Ten holes have a birdie rate over 15%. Those include a short drivable par 4 and FOUR par-5s.
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: We Love the Long Ball
Five players have repeated in the top 10 at Vidanta Vallarta: Finau, Rahm, Cameron Champ, Patrick Rodgers and Brandon Wu. You don't see that very often on TOUR. Strength of field may play a role, but the course characteristics really call for one type of player. Looking back two years, I have compared the winners (Rahm and Finau) along with the two sets of top 10 finishers from each year. Look at these telling trends.
- Only one player of the 24 who finished inside the two top 10s (there are ties for tenth) lost strokes off the tee. The two groups gained over three strokes (on average) against the field. Most courses don't depict the same driver dependency for contending.
- Rahm and Finau each gained over five strokes on the field the year they won.
- It plans to be quite humid in Mexico, that will help increase carry along the shore.
- Over 40% of the approach shots at Vidanta Vallarta are played from over 200 yards. The TOUR average is 23%. Power players tend to hit shorter irons on approach. Seven iron versus five iron from 210 yards makes a big difference over four rounds. Long iron acumen is a must in Mexico.
- Some of those long approaches even happen on a couple of the five par 3s. Par 3 scoring is not an edge we consider often, but with nearly 30% of the holes happening with just one swing off the tee, there's definitely a need to dig deeper here.
- Rahm and Finau each gained over four strokes on the 3s in the year they won.
- Go easy on around the green and short game weight. One-third of those top 24 from the past two years lost strokes around the green. Players will miss greens due to length, but Seaside Paspalum is an easier grass than most to get up and down on.
- Players make less than the PGA TOUR average on the greens for all putts over 5'. I'm watching putting stats closely on Paspalum. Vidanta Vallarta is below the TOUR average for 3 putts. Approach putts aren't difficult, these greens are just tough to convert birdie chances.
- Only two players of the previous two top 10s lost strokes on the greens. The group averaged gaining over four strokes on the field.
Not all of these same players are in the field for year three, but they do give us an accurate representation of what is needed to contend. The average driving distance by the field is 15 yards more than the PGA TOUR average. Another great comp situation is el Cardonal we saw in the fall at the World Wide Technology Championship. Tiger's design was very friendly off the tee and called for going low resort golf. That field was also mediocre in strength and their leaderboard will help along with the history here.
I love weeks like this on the PGA TOUR. They cannot all be Tiger tournaments anymore. This is why wagering is so much fun, we can all build a community connection to these outrights and watch the weekend develop with live betting. The Mexico Open has given us two very entertaining years to date. I believe year three will be even better with some new names. Get behind this card and let's take home win number one in 2024!
2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Outright Winners
Taylor Pendrith (+2800)
Pendrith is quietly putting together a great run of golf on the PGA TOUR.
- Pendrith has five top 15 results in his last seven starts.
- Pendrith is one of the longest drivers on TOUR.
- First in bogey avoidance, he has touch to go with his prolific power.
- That complimentary skill set gives him infinite scoring potential on a course like Vidanta Vallarta.
Maverick McNealy (+6000)
McNealy is gaining an average of 4.5 strokes total in his three starts of 2024.
- Certainly one of the best putters on TOUR, he has a very positive history on Paspalum.
- McNealy gained over three strokes on approach at WMPO that led to a sixth place finish.
- In seven Paspalum events, he has five top-30 finishes.
- McNealy's length will surprise you -- he's ranked 24th in the field for driving distance.
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