This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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Back to back ... and back to back!
Congratulations to Hannah Green for winning back-to-back LA Championships. Thanks to her five under par back nine on Sunday, Hannah also brought us plenty of green for the second week in a row! RTL cashed an outright on Sunday, our third win in two weeks. Add 'em all up (Nelly +550 win, Nelly + Scottie +3150 parlay win, and Hannah +3500 win) and we just earned +7200 since the Masters.
2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Empty cup
Last year, 11 players in the top 50 of the OWGR competed in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Well Dallas, I've got some bad news for you, in the 2024 edition, only five players in the top 40 of the world rankings are in the 156-man field. What looks like last year's Honda Classic, the Byron Nelson sits in a bad spot on the schedule. In the next seven weeks following THE CJ CUP, there are three signature events and two major championships. That's a strong run of important tournaments and unless you live around the corner from TPC Craig Ranch, the Byron Nelson got bumped from your calendar.
The top 65 ties of this full field event get to compete over the weekend for $9.5 million dollars. The Byron Nelson host since 2021 has been TPC Craig Ranch located in McKinney just north of Dallas. Part of the TOUR's TPC network, this layout lacks drawing power. The build of the 2024 schedule has created these mandatory breaks by grouping signature tournaments alongside major championships. Over the next two weeks, we will go from Quail Hollow to Valhalla. In-between there are opportunities for the PGA TOUR's middle tier and that's where most of my attention is in Texas. The tournament betting favorite is Jordan Spieth, and he has missed the cut in three of his last five starts including the Masters.
2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Ranch life
There's a very good opportunity in McKinney to make some money. TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 design measuring 7,414 yards. Another long course is only going to get longer this week. Similar to a year ago, the weather looks very wet in Dallas. The region has already received 6.5" of rain in the last 10 days. Couple that with a forecast calling for another inch on Thursday. Rain is in the forecast for all four tournament days. Get ready to dodge some clouds as the TOUR tries to squeeze this one in on a regular schedule. For the most up to date weather make sure you continue to check the link below.
The Ranch is pretty mundane when it comes to course design. When your comp courses are TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club we aren't going to be hosting major championships any time soon. Here's a large part of the problem of getting a better field. How would this venue prepare you for next week in Charlotte or the following in Louisville? Greens that average 6,778 sq/ft are easy to hit. Putting on Bentgrass is helpful, but only four holes have a bogey rate over 15%. There just isn't enough of a challenge to separate the best players. We do have several long par 4s, but in many cases last year the TOUR moved tees up.
The average winning score after three editions is 25 under par. Those same three winners only averaged 27 sub-par scores en route to winning. With such a small gap between the total scoring and final score, the player with the hottest putter is essentially going to win. This is why on our outrights card you will see players with larger odds and tremendous scoring upside. Taking Sungjae Im who has missed two of his last three cuts and can't score consistently at under +3000 pales in comparison to the opportunities I see at double or triple his odds.
I can easily start to get excited in a field where the middle class rules the betting board. Weaker fields this year have produced some incredible results. No Scottie also means we can play this one straight up and grab a winner for the third week in row. Avoid 83 bunkers, 13 holes where water comes into play, capitalize on your birdie chances, and you'll be in the conversation Sunday afternoon. The Zoysiagrass fairways are pretty wide, and a little length never hurts at 7,400+ yards. That length also dictates the approach game. Over one-third of the approach shots are hit from over 200 yards.
Just another week where a long iron game and a hotter putter will keep you near the top of the leaderboard. I'll get deeper into the outright skill set in the coming section but remember to keep other forms of motivation in mind during weeks like this. A middle tier win gives a player a two-year exemption and entrance into all of the signature events. A struggling star like Tom Kim needs FedEx Cup points (current rank 77). Non-European TOUR players need Presidents' Cup points. An inspired start can be ignited by a whole number of factors singular and combined. As you peruse our outright list, make sure you understand why they have been picked and you'll gain amazing insights into your weeklong of live betting.
2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: TPC Lee
No better name for TPC Craig Ranch than the amazing nickname of the two-time winner of the Byron Nelson in back to back years (2021-2022) TPC LEE! Not only did Lee win in two straight years, but each event he entered with triple digit pre-tournament odds. Seems like whatever KH Lee can do on a golf course matches life on Craig Ranch. Upon first inspection, we see length on the scorecard. Wet conditions will only increase overall distance. Soft conditions will also help two very important factors, hitting fairways and GIRs.
- Players hit more than the TOUR average of fairways and well more than the GIRs from week to week. The scoring average is historically a couple strokes under par, which is quite low. Remember winning requires a six under par average per round.
- Two years ago, tournament officials changed the twelfth hole from a par 5 to a par 4. This increased the importance of par 4 scoring, and par 5 scoring. With just three par 5s left, the field must take advantage on these holes. I dug deep into the skill set for scoring on the 5s. Length and pitching are the keys and our team of outrights goes sub-par at will on these holes.
- The top 11 on the leaderboard finished inside the top 15 for par 5 scoring last year.
- Seven of the top 12 finishers were in the top 10 for par 5 scoring in 2022.
- Seven of the top 11 were also inside the top 10 for par 5 scoring in 2021.
Scoring in general is key and BoB%, birdies gained, opportunities gained and simply hitting as many GIRs as possible leads to 25+ sub-par scores. At times, I make it sound easy on paper, but going that low for four straight days doesn't just happen. Our outrights have been trending. Accumulating top 10s and 20s displays solid form and with so many elite events lately, many of the best in the middle tier have quietly played very well. I also believe so many long shot wins early in the season keeps these guys focused when they dealing. They see others like them winning and gain momentum for their own trophy runs.
Over one-third of the approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch travel over 200 yards. If Tiger taught us anything over 20+ years of competing (and winning) it is that long iron play can really separate you from the field. The two winners at Craig Ranch over the past three years gained an average of six strokes on approach. That's two shots more than with the putter which is the second largest gain. Who can just continue to knock down flagsticks and make putts. There's 35 acres of fairway grass here so I'm less concerned with hitting fairways than I am possessing an elite iron game.
Seven par 4s over 450 yards catch my attention. There's a specific style player who scores on long par 4s. They are hand-picked below. Add those seven holes to the three par 5s, and now we have 10 holes per round to differentiate yourself. Remember, six under par per day! Twelve holes have a birdie rate over 15% and five of them have a birdie rate over 35%! Each player will be attacking these holes aggressively. I'm featuring players who tend to go for the green in two on par 5s no matter what. I call them calculated bombers. They are aggressive and much like winning at PGA West, TPC Deere Run, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Scottsdale, they enjoy playing this style of golf.
Grinders need not apply this week. This is Monday scramble style scoring so make sure your pencil has a fresh eraser. No matter how low you go, with soft conditions you will probably need to go lower. Each of our outrights has brilliant birdie potential and this strength of field will keep them comfortable. Get ready for a classic birdie-fest as we creep one week closer to Kentucky and our next major showdown.
2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Outright Winners
Thomas Detry (+4500)
Detry has gained an average of 4+ strokes against the field with his flat stick over his last five starts.
- Eighth at the Zurich, he has a second in Houston, fourth at Pebble Beach, and seventeenth at the Valspar.
- That fourth at Pebble was after 54-holes and he was paired with Scottie on Saturday in the final group. That's a key learning round for the Belgium bomber.
- Detry is long averaging 306 yards OTT.
Mark Hubbard (+7000)
Going low is a skill on the PGA TOUR. Hubbard can make birdies with the best of 'em.
- Hubbard just finished third at the Zurich Classic.
- Mark has made 11 cuts in a row and has dropped 30+ OWGR points since mid-January.
- Hubbard is an excellent par 5 scorer who is ranked inside the top 15 for BoB% and birdies gained.
- Mark is gaining over three strokes against the field in his last ten starts.
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