Weekly PGA Preview: The Open Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Open Championship

Royal Liverpool Golf Club
Hoylake England

The PGA Tour heads to England this week as the season's last major gets underway. 

It's already that time of the year, when we're down to just one major before the long break leading up to the Masters. Let's not be glum, though, let's get excited about what's in front of us this week.

There are so many storylines, and right at the top once again is Rory McIlroy, who as luck would have it, comes in off a great win this past Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open. So much for coming in under the radar... I thought we talked about this Rory! There's no way we'll ever understand the pressure put on a golfer when everyone expects big things, and who knows, maybe it's not as big of a deal as we make it out to be, but ramping up expectations a week prior is rarely a good thing. Add to that the nearly 10-year major drought and Rory really has nowhere to hide. Oh, did I mention that he cruised to victory the last time the Open Championship was held here? That should help things as well. If Rory was hoping to enter in stealth fashion, the exact opposite has happened. Then again, he's the one in control of that aspect, so if he truly felt like being in the spotlight was a burden he wouldn't have teed it up in Scotland. Maybe we make too much of this, maybe not. We'll never know. Not even A.I. can help us with this one. What I do know is that if Rory is in the mix come Sunday, he will need to do everything possible to keep his mind from racing, and that's easier said than done in a major.        
                              
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Cameron Smith shot a final-round 64 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Cameron Young.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (15-2)

Hey, look at that! It's the guy that everyone expects to win. Seriously, there is so much pressure on McIlroy this week I can feel it from the other side of the pond. The streak is building, he's the betting favorite and he just won. It's a perfect scenario for failure. If he were to win in Hoylake, it would go down as one of the -- if not the -- greatest feat of his career. He's got a chance no doubt, but he may need to go about it unconventionally, like coming from behind Sunday or just obliterating the field over the first three rounds. His price is too low for a win wager, so I'll be passing.

Scottie Scheffler (13-2)

It's been a long time since Scheffler wasn't atop the betting board, but there are a bunch of factors that play into this scenario, most of which have nothing to do with him. Any concerns about his ability to get around a links-style course were alleviated in Scotland, so he's rightfully just behind the favorite. Once again it will come down to the putter, and are you willing to accept such a short price on the hopes that the flat stick will come around? Even though I think Scheffler is the favorite, I wouldn't play him at this number.

Jon Rahm (12-1)

I'm excited to see how all of this plays out. On one hand you have McIlroy, who has everything going for him -- with the exception of the pressure, which is immense. On the other hand, you have Rahm, who enters this major with very low expectations and a game that appears to be a mess right now. These guys have relatively equal talent, so who finishes better, the guy on a roll with the heat or the guy in poor form with no one talking about him? One thing is for certain, this price is not nearly enough for me.

THE NEXT TIER

Cameron Smith (20-1)

Now we're starting to get some favorable odds. Smith did not perform up to expectations at the first three majors, but perhaps that helps him this week. Sure, he's the defending champion, which comes with its own set of things, but as mentioned already nearly all the focus this week will be on McIlroy. I'm not sure Smith wins, but I do expect this to be his best major performance of the season.

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

Maybe it's not real. Maybe this perception that it's hard to win when people are expecting big things from you is just a thing we make up and then look for evidence to back up our hypotheses. You know, confirmation bias. But whatever the case, Hovland will be a good case study, as many are picking him to win. Hovland is certainly trending the right way, and much like Will Zalatoris last year he's saved his best golf for the majors. Unlike Zalatoris, Hovland already has some wins under his belt, so he might be better equipped to pull off a major win.

Xander Schauffele (25-1)

If you have read my previews over the years, you know that I hate to follow the crowd when it comes to making picks. That's one reason why I listed Schauffele here instead of the trendy Tommy Fleetwood. It's not that I think Fleetwood will play poorly, but in sticking to the theme, a lot of people are expecting a great effort from Fleetwood, and if my memory is correct, he has generally played his best when under the radar. Speaking of players in that scenario, Schauffele has been a trendy pick to win a major for a few years, but I think people are getting tired of him not coming through. That's usually the time when a golfer delivers -- just when you're about to give up on him.

LONG SHOTS

Tony Finau (55-1)

Yes, he's played poorly over the past couple months, but getting on a links-style course might be exactly what he needs. He has fared pretty well on the six Open Championship tracks he has played, making every cut and finishing no lower than T28. Besides, Finau at these odds? How can we pass that up?

Adam Scott (75-1)

I'm a little surprised this number hasn't moved much yet, as Scott seems to be getting some steam as a sleeper pick. But who knows, maybe it will be drop before the action begins. Scott is another guy that usually plays well at Open Championships, and although his best results at this event came about a decade ago, he only missed one cut in his past 12 Opens. He also finished T5 in 2014 at this venue.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Rory McIlroy - Plenty of OAD players have been waiting for the moment to deploy McIlroy, and I can't argue with this pick. I do think that the pressure will be a factor, but I think he can overcome that and get himself into the mix Sunday. Closing is a different story, but I do see a top-10 in his future.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Cameron Smith - If not for the expected huge popularity of McIlroy, Smith would be highly owned as well, and who knows, maybe he will be. Whatever the case, if you are near the top of your league right now, Smith looks like the perfect option. This is the last chance to use him, so unless you want to waste a golfer like Smith, now is the time to use him.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Wyndham Clark - I'm going with a hunch play here. Clark will be written off because he picked up his first major a month ago, and no one expects much from him after such a big win. But what if he's special? We often can't see how good a golfer is until he has reached the pinnacle. Sometimes they get complacent and disappear, and sometimes they take their game even higher. Clark was trending the right way before his major win. Maybe he's got more than we thought?

Buyer Beware: Tommy Fleetwood - There is a thing as too much steam, and I think Fleetwood is in that range. As mentioned previously, he rarely seems to rise to expectations, and those are high this week. Fleetwood is a stalker; he comes off the pace when you least suspect it. He's got all the tools to succeed here and he's playing well right now, but there's just something I don't like about his chances. We'll call this pick a hunch as well.

This Week: Cameron Smith - This pick came down to Smith or McIlroy, and the result had everything to do with where I am in the standings. All things being equal, I'm going with Rory, but since I'm a little off the pace I had to go with Smith. That's not the only reason to use Smith, though, as mentioned above. Rory still has value during the playoffs. Honestly though, these two are in my top three along with Scheffler, so there's no bad pick here.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Cameron Smith ($11,500)
Middle Range: Adam Scott ($9,600)
Lower Range: Thomas Detry ($8,100)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Cameron Smith - It's also the last chance to use Smith in this format, so let's double up. McIlroy would be another option, and while I would feel comfortable using him in this spot, I can see a scenario where the pressure is just too much and he doesn't play well. That's not what I am expecting, but I can envision it.

Previous Results