Frozen Fantasy: Can’t Always Get What You Want

Trade season is here. The Rangers got their man, albeit three years late. The Flames got their men, even if it broke Jakob Pelletier's heart (1 percent Yahoo!) during the first intermission of Thursday's game. And the Pens and Sharks got-first rounders when neither should've.

There are lessons here for fantasy managers. 

First, move early on deals - you get the benefit of immediate production and get ahead of rising prices. They don't always rise, but at some point we both need to count the cost of the stress that comes with last-minute transactions. Been there, been worn down by the badgering and undercutting. 

Like any of it mattered in the end. No thanks.

Second, add or accept a depth guy if it makes the deal happen. Drew O'Connor (0 percent Yahoo!) was a low-risk, easy-demote, and cheap depth add for the Orcas. They will walk away after this year if he doesn't produce. And if he does, they re-sign him for the minimum. Win-win. 

In fantasy, you can always drop him. So take him if the other manager wants him gone. Or if your trade partner asks, and he's a bit part for you. 

Lastly, a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. Yes, first-round NHL picks are uber-valuable, especially lottery picks. But a young guy who's already hit 45-50 points is a better bet than a prospect who might hit that mark. Unless I'm in a long-term rebuild.

Picks don't really matter after the first two fantasy rounds. That's when you slip into the NHL's second round. And former GM Doug McLean always said that 15 percent of second-round selections ever become impact NHLers. He likes to hear himself talk, yet this resonated for me. 

The NHL is about to break for the 4 Nations Face-Off. When they're back, the trade market will ramp up fast. I'm digging in this week in my many leagues and making some decisions. 

I'll go for it if I think I can win. I'll sell if I know I can't. And then I'll let my rosters ride. I'm not going to take on the last-minute stress. The perfect deal exists in our heads and nowhere else. Wasn't it the Stones that said you can't always get what you want, but instead find you get what you need?

And I'm not really even a fan. 

Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye this week. 

Matthew Coronato, RW, Calgary (6 percent Yahoo!) - Coronato is quietly on pace for a 45-point, 180-shot season with at least 20 goals. He's in the Flames top-six and top PP. And the Flames are all-in for a postseason run. Win-win-win. Coronato had his Thursday hattie taken away when one goal was reassigned, though he's still produced four points (two goals, two assists) in his last two games with four - including one late Sunday - before the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Coronato has drive and talent. This may be a good week for managers who pick him up. 

Joel Farabee, LW/RW, Calgary (6 percent Yahoo!) - I like Thursday's deal for Farabee - he goes from a sometimes scratched to a first-line gig with Nazem Kadri (59 percent Yahoo!) and Jonathan Huberdeau (44 percent Yahoo!). He's smart and skilled and plays an edgy, two-way game. Farabee's 50-point season last year wasn't a fluke, yet his 19 points in 50 games with Philly this season are. I'm taking a chance on him seizing this chance and getting close to that 50-point pace once he settles into the Saddledome. 

Marcus Foligno, LW/RW, Minnesota (7 percent Yahoo!) - Foligno went into Ottawa on Saturday with a four-game, five-point streak that included three goals. He stepped into Kirill Kaprizov's (99 percent Yahoo!) spot on the second unit, and he'll be there for a while as the star is out for at least 12 weeks after surgery. Foligno's streak was snapped Saturday with Leevi Merilainen's (24 percent Yahoo!) third shutout. But the gig will stick. My only concerns? Foligno is a low-volume shooter who doesn't get a sniff on the man-advantage. But that may change this week with Ryan Hartman's (4 percent Yahoo!) upcoming suspension. Worst case? Into the dumpster he goes. No offense, Marcus, but there are plenty in the sea like you. 

Simon Holmstrom, RW, NY Islanders (3 percent Yahoo!) - Holmstrom is a strong skater with great skills who thinks the game incredibly well. His game has taken a step forward this season, though he's still a virtual unknown. He shouldn't be. Will he ever be an elite scorer? No. But Holmstrom can do what he's doing right now - rip off a hot streak that can take your day or week over the top. He went into Sunday on a three-game, six-point streak with three goals, three assists, seven shots, and three blocks. I nabbed him for Sunday's contest. He'll be gone for the next shiny thing soon enough. But the Isles have been surprisingly hot lately, so who knows.

Marco Kasper, LW/C, Detroit (20 percent Yahoo!) - Kasper has been a pleasant surprise on the top trio beside Dylan Larkin (94 percent Yahoo!) and Lucas Raymond (91 percent Yahoo!). Not because he doesn't have talent, but because that's a tough gig for a rookie. Kasper doesn't seem phased by it and recently put up a three-game, five-point run (three goals, 11 shots) against strong teams like the Bolts, Kings and Oil. The Wings want him to be their 2C, yet are happy to roll him beside the big boys to gain confidence. And we'll both benefit from that now. 

Vladislav Namestnikov, LW/C, Winnipeg (6 percent Yahoo!) - Namestnikov has been thrust onto the second line with Adam Lowry's (15 percent Yahoo!) injury absence through the break. He's playing with the offensive-minded Nikolaj Ehlers (90 percent Yahoo!)  and Cole Perfetti (19 percent Yahoo!). And he takes a two-game, three-point streak (one goal, two assists) into Tuesday against the Canes. Namestnikov is a fits-and-spurts producer, and this opportunity sets up one of the latter. But he only has two outings this week. There may be better options for weekly leagues, though I like him to stream in daily. 

Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Pittsburgh (18 percent Yahoo!) - OK, OK, I know - Nedeljkovic has burned you and me both, first as a Wing and now as a Pen. But Pittsburgh finally see Ned as their one. Tristan Jarry (7 percent Yahoo!) cleared waivers two weeks ago, and Nedeljkovic has since delivered a 4-2-0 record with one shutout and only 11 goals allowed (.940 save percentage). He's not the 2020-21 Ned - that brilliance was linked directly to the system in Carolina. But he can help, even with shot-blocker Marcus Pettersson (3 percent Yahoo!) now in Vancouver. 

Cole Perfetti, LW/C, Winnipeg (19 percent Yahoo!) - Perfetti is on a three-game, four-point streak (one goal, three assists) heading into this week with four goals and three assists in his last five. His production has been inconsistent with only two assists across 14 appearances prior to this outburst. But hot is hot. As I said earlier, the Jets only play twice this week. But hot for two is better than meh for three. 

Jaccob Slavin, D, Carolina (14 percent Yahoo!) - Slavin is quietly projected for the kind of seasons he had in Years Two and Three in Carolina that included 30-plus points and 150-plus blocks. He's tallied a goal, assist and 10 blocks in his last three heading into the Jackets' three-game week. Slavin can raise your roster's floor in deeper formats.

Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota (13 percent Yahoo!) - Spurgeon had his four-game, four-point streak snapped Saturday, though I still liked what I've seen. A lot. He scored two goals, including one on the power play, and rang up 12 blocked shots during that stretch. Spurgeon has struggled with injuries the last couple of years, but he's not far removed from being a double-digit goal scorer who delivered 35-40 points, a load of shots and even more blocks. I'm willing to roll the dice that he'll throw down a similar pace going forward, even with Kirill Kaprizov (99 percent Yahoo!) out long-term.

Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, Seattle (21 percent Yahoo!) - Tolvanen's on a four-game scoring run (four goals, one assist) that has him three goals from equalling his career mark (18; 2022-23). He's always boasted a deadly release and pinpoint accuracy, and he loves to hit. A lot. Tolvanen could be a mid-20s scorer with 250 hits, with the potential to pick up some points from his role on PP1. He's not a long term solution, but then again you never know. Think of Tolvanen's value if he were a 30-goal, 250-hit forward. Not quite Brady Tkachuk (100 percent Yahoo!), yet close enough. The next couple seasons could be key. 

Back to getting what you need.

In the last few seasons, I got what I thought I wanted in my trades. I wanted Connor Bedard (94 percent Yahoo!), and I got him. In two leagues.

We know how it's gone. Bedard has been a strong cog in my home league, though not a star. In another, my combo of Bedard, Auston Matthews (100 percent Yahoo!) and Kirill Kaprizov (99 percent Yahoo!) have me 11th in a 14-team league. One that plays only three forwards…Yep. 

In another one, I once got Sidney Crosby (100 percent Yahoo!), Brad Marchand (91 percent Yahoo!), Gabriel Landeskog (25 percent Yahoo!) and Ryan Ellis (0 percent Yahoo!) in a deal when they were all at their peak. I was going for it. All except for Marchand immediately got hurt. 

Yes, I got what I wanted in all of those instances. What I needed were the lessons I received.

The first was patience. Then never believe too much in my own thinking. And to never get too attached to a player or a pick.

Too bad I hadn't learned that when I traded for the right to grab Nail Yakupov back in 2012. I got him and another top-12 pick. I don't know who I ended up getting with that selection. But I do remember that it seemed like trading Phil Kessel and Brad Marchand at the time to get them. 

I got exactly what I needed then. Remember that bird in the hand thing? 

Until next week. Or after the 4 Nations Face-Off.