This article is part of our NHL Barometer series.
This week's article focuses on those potentially coming back from injury, whose status changed either due to trade, free agent signing or who I expect to take a step forward or regress as the pre-season gets underway. This includes a pair of rookie centers, a winger getting a fresh start in Boston and a d-man receiving the same in Big D. Meanwhile, Quick is still the man in LA, the Rat working his way back and a former fourth overall pick possibly looking at a tough year.
First Liners (Risers)
Tage Thompson, C, BUF: Thompson was the hot player in 2022-23 when he tallied 47 goals and as many assists in 78 games. As quickly as fantasy owners jumped on the bus, they hopped off last season when Thompson fell to 29 and 27, respectively, in 71 games. But there was a silver lining to his year, as the 26-year-old center registered 21 points, including 11 goals, in his final 18 outings. Thompson is a good bet to rebound, potentially to the point-per-game mark again, aided by the talent around him.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, COL: Landeskog is attempting to return after missing the last two years due to multiple knee surgeries. He skated this summer and though he isn't likely to be available Oct. 9 for Colorado's regular-season opener, Landeskog might play not long after that. We should have a pretty good sense of where Landeskog stands early in the camp, so pay attention to our updates.
This week's article focuses on those potentially coming back from injury, whose status changed either due to trade, free agent signing or who I expect to take a step forward or regress as the pre-season gets underway. This includes a pair of rookie centers, a winger getting a fresh start in Boston and a d-man receiving the same in Big D. Meanwhile, Quick is still the man in LA, the Rat working his way back and a former fourth overall pick possibly looking at a tough year.
First Liners (Risers)
Tage Thompson, C, BUF: Thompson was the hot player in 2022-23 when he tallied 47 goals and as many assists in 78 games. As quickly as fantasy owners jumped on the bus, they hopped off last season when Thompson fell to 29 and 27, respectively, in 71 games. But there was a silver lining to his year, as the 26-year-old center registered 21 points, including 11 goals, in his final 18 outings. Thompson is a good bet to rebound, potentially to the point-per-game mark again, aided by the talent around him.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, COL: Landeskog is attempting to return after missing the last two years due to multiple knee surgeries. He skated this summer and though he isn't likely to be available Oct. 9 for Colorado's regular-season opener, Landeskog might play not long after that. We should have a pretty good sense of where Landeskog stands early in the camp, so pay attention to our updates. After shaking off some rust, he could produce at about a point-per-game pace while serving in a top-six capacity and working on the first power-play unit.
Viktor Arvidsson, LW, EDM: A look at Arvidsson's games played per year shows a player who has suffered from injuries annually. When in the lineup, he has mostly been productive, but the repeated absences have wreaked havoc on his output. Last year was no different, as Arvidsson played just 18 games, producing six goals and nine assists. This didn't stop Edmonton from signing him to a two-year, $8 million contract this offseason. When healthy, he does an excellent job of maintaining possession while scoring at even strength. Arvidsson could line up opposite Connor McDavid, no more needs to be said.
Tanner Jeannot, RW, LA: The Kings acquired Jeannot from the Lightning in exchange for the No. 118 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and a 2025 second-round selection. Compare this return to what Tampa Bay paid originally for Jeannot's services and you can see why we called it a failed experiment in our season preview. Jeannot should line up on the third line in LA and has the potential to top the 30-point mark while dishing out 300+ hits again.
Simon Edvinsson, D, DET: Edvinsson, selected sixth overall in 2021, saw action in 16 games last season for the Wings in which he notched one goal, one assist and 26 hits while averaging 18:15 of ice time. With 25 games total under his belt and Shayne Gostisbehere now in Carolina, Edvinsson should be in line for an expanded role heading into the upcoming campaign. The increased ice time and responsibilities might mean second pairing placement and unit deployment on the power play, resulting in a significant uptick in production.
Jake Sanderson, D, OTT: Sanderson made strides offensively and defensively during his sophomore campaign. He netted 10 goals while earning 38 points, 14 of which came on the man-advantage, in 79 games. He also improved defensively and formed a solid shutdown pairing with Artem Zub. While Thomas Chabot is still likely viewed as the team's top d-man, he has historically been injury-prone, while Sanderson is ascending and should take over as Ottawa's No. 1 blueliner.
Jeremy Swayman, G, BOS: On paper, this is an easy one, but the longer Swayman remains unsigned, the longer it might take him to play his way into game shape. Gone is platoon-mate Linus Ullmark, opening the door for Swayman, who was the Bruins' No. 1 netminder in the playoffs, to have unimpeded access to a massive uptick in games played. As our preseason outlook noted, the 25-year-old was elite in 2023-24, delivering a fifth-best GSAx (goals saved above expected) of 22.79. His .916 save percentage was the sixth-best among those with 25 games played or more and his 2.53 GAA was eighth. Look for 30+ wins this season.
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, CAR: This one is a bit less certain than Jeremy Swayman, Kochetkov saw action in 42 games last season, delivering a 23-13-4 record, 2.33 GAA and .911 save percentage while splitting time with Frederik Andersen. The Great Dane is still around, but he's played a full season just once in his last four campaigns, and he's seen action in only 50 of the Canes' possible 162 over the last two years. Kochetkov is the future in net for the 'Canes and that future should start in earnest this year.
Others include Connor Zary, Marco Rossi, Shane Pinto, Anthony Cirelli, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrei Kuzmenko, Logan Stankoven, Evan Rodrigues, Luke Evangelista, Anthony Duclair, Matvei Michkov, Pavel Dorofeyev, Dougie Hamilton, Travis Sanheim, Noah Hanifin, Dustin Wolf, Joseph Woll and Arturs Silovs.
Buy Low
Trevor Zegras, C, ANA: Tag this under, I don't think he could be any worse than last year. After signing late, Zegras tried to go from 0-60 in the blink of an eye but suffered a lower-body injury and then an ankle injury. The 23-year-old's injury-plagued fourth season saw him post 15 points, 73 shots on net, 30 PIM and a minus-1 rating over 31 appearances. Zegras did close strong with two goals and six helpers over his last eight games, and now fully healthy, should line up somewhere in Anaheim's top six.
Fourth Liners/Press Boxers (Fallers)
Frank Vatrano, LW, ANA: Vatrano had a career year, recording 37 goals and 60 points to go along with his 85 PIM, 78 blocked shots and 156 hits last season. He was aided by a three-plus minute-per-game increase, along with a rise in total shots and a significant spike in shooting percentage. Vatrano is in the final year of the three-year, $10.95 million contract he signed with the Ducks in July of 2022, making him a likely trade deadline casualty. Add in the presence of Cutter Gauthier coupled with an Anaheim team looking to the future and Vatrano's output is likely to suffer.
Aaron Ekblad, FLA: Injuries have cost Ekblad time for five straight seasons. In addition, his ice time, including on the power play, has declined each of the last three seasons. This year, with Brandon Montour off to Seattle as a free agent, Ekblad has a chance to reclaim his role as the quarterback of Florida's top power-play unit. But, given his decline in production, Ekblad is likely to cede that spot to Gustav Forsling, who was the team's best blueliner in the team's run to the Cup.
Tristan Jarry, G, PIT: Jarry lost his starting gig in the final month of the 2023-24 season in favor of Alex Nedeljkovic. He enters this season with a tenuous hold on the role – at best – due to the presence of Nedeljkovic. Despite finishing the year with a 19-25-5 record, Jarry, who is signed through 2027-28 and the team's much more talented netminder, enters training camp still as the defacto No. 1 netminder in Pittsburgh.
Others include Mikael Granlund, Adam Henrique, John Tavares, Blake Coleman, Anders Lee, David Perron, Andre Burakovsky, Brandon Saad, Brent Burns, Luke Hughes (injury related), Alex Pietrangelo, Cam York, Mike Matheson and Thatcher Demko (injury related).
Sell High
Charlie Coyle, C, BOS: Coyle took advantage of the opportunity afforded him due to the retirement of both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to slot into a top-six role as the second-line center. He set new career highs in 2023-24 with 25 goals and 60 points, including 11 power-play points after finishing the previous campaign without a single point with the man advantage. Boston signed free agent Elias Lindholm over the offseason, and Matthew Poitras is primed to play a bigger role as a sophomore, so there's increased competition up the middle. Coyle might shift to wing, but a decline in production should be expected.
