This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
NHL Picks Today: Stanley Cup Finals Best Bets and Player Props for Game 2
In Game 1, we went 2-0 on the props we took and I did not see anything that should indicate us not to take the same ones again. The lines did not move, and they look even juicier than they did before.
Player Props for Avalanche-Lightning, Game 2
Andrei Vasilevskiy o32.5 Saves (PrizePicks)
When Colorado is playing at home, it gets crazy amounts of shots on goal. For reference, last game they had thirty-eight shots on goal and that is on the lower end of the spectrum for the Avs. In Rounds 1 and 2 (against Nashville and Edmonton), they had 40 or more shots in every home game and 45 or more in three of the four home games. In Round 2, they had two home games in the low thirties but also one with 54 shots on goal. This makes it so that teams going to play at Colorado have cleared this line of goalie saves in six of eight games. This line was cleared in every game in rounds 1 and 3 and cleared in two of the six games against St. Louis, bringing it to a total of eleven of fifteen games these playoffs where the opposing team of Colorado has had thirty-three or more saves. To cap it all off, Colorado averages 42.5 shots on goal at home these playoffs. In the most recent game between Tampa and Colorado this regular season in February, Colorado had forty-seven shots on goal. And, in Game 1, they had a sub-par performance and still got to 38. Vasilevskiy has a 91.6% save rate during these playoffs. So, if he does not have a disappointing outing, and if he faces anything north of thirty-six shots on goal, he should reach thirty-three saves or more. Last game was a night for Colorado where it did not perform as dominantly on the offensive end as it usually does and yet, this line was still beat with ease as he finished with thirty-four saves (which he beat before overtime occurred). The cherry on top of it all: Rotowire has him projected for 33.19 saves.
Nathan MacKinnon o4.5 Shots on Goal (PrizePicks)
In the analysis for Vasilevskiy, you can see how dominant the Colorado offense is at home, so with this in mind, it only makes sense to target the man at the center of it all. MacKinnon has hit this line in ten of fifteen games these playoffs, including six of eight home games. In the playoffs, he is averaging 5.8 shots on goal per game and 6.4 when playing at home. In the last article, I discussed how his only two misses at home came in the only two games where he had less than four power play minutes (2.2 and 1.7). Well, in Game 1 he only had 3.5 power-play minutes on ice and still covered this line. To boost his matchup even more, Tampa allows 13.71 shots per game to Centers in away games prior to this series starting. On the surface, this may seem risky to take the same prop again. He only had five shots, he got fewer power-play minutes, the team did not shoot as much as normal at home and the game went to overtime, so it begs the question: why am I still so confident in this play? Not only did he beat this line before overtime, but he had 13 shot attempts in Game 1, his second-highest of the playoffs. He has four other games with twelve or more shots. In those four games, he had eight, nine, eight and eleven shots on goal. He is converting shot attempts to shots on goal at a 63% rate these playoffs. So if we should expect some positive regression, one of two things should happen: Either he gets the same amount of shot attempts but converts more of them to shots on goal, thus crushing the line of 4.5, or he gets fewer shots, but since his conversion rate comes back to regression, he still beats the 4.5 line. For reference, with his 63% conversion rate average, he would need eight shot attempts to reach five shots on goal, and he has not gotten less than five shot attempts in a home game all playoffs. Rotowire has him projected to reach 4.89 shots on goal.
