This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
The purpose of this article will be to give you a variety of options and strategy thoughts for the daily slate in the NHL for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
To begin, you see and hear a lot about Cash vs GPP plays in Daily Fantasy Sports, but I typically don't believe in Cash vs GPP players. If a player is good, I believe he's usable in any format.
I do believe in different Cash vs GPP lineup construction though.
In GPP Tournaments, I think you should have at least one full line stack, potentially two full stacks (or at least two forwards plus a corresponding defenseman). However, in cash-game lineups, you are probably much better off limiting your team-by-team exposure to two players maximum, with an exception of potentially using three players from the same team on smaller slates.
My favorite way to approach cash-game lineups is to choose my top player of the night and use his lower priced linemate. For example, Toronto center Auston Matthews is a great play almost nightly, but instead of pairing him with Patrick Marleau, use the cheaper wing linemate -- Kasperi Kapanen -- this way you still get exposure to two-thirds of a top Toronto line, but you save cap space to get more firepower elsewhere in your lineup.
Use this strategy by choosing one or two players from the lines below and mixing up your cash-game rosters, instead of full-line stacks as you would in your GPP lineups.
I tend to be fairly math-oriented in my research, but you should not be a slave to your rankings as numbers often lie. That said, my main sources of ranking data include a Shots/Minute, Shooting Percentage, Corsi For/Minute and Corsi Against/Minute player ranking system to determine team pace, offensive and defensive ranks.
For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi, it is a metric to determine puck possession and can also be used for pace considerations. Essentially, a Corsi For (CF) event occurs every time a specific player is on the ice when a shot is taken – whether that shot is on goal, off target, or blocked does not matter – any shot is a Corsi For event. Conversely, if the opposing team takes a shot while a specific player is on the ice, that is a Corsi Against (CA) event. Different metrics look at the ratio of CF vs. CA either as a percentage or Plus/Minus ratio.
For those of you familiar with my articles, I've made a small change to the nomenclature of my Rating System, which has an average 245 Rating/Game per team. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 282 (CHI) to a worst of 225 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 219 (BOS) to a worst of 273 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Expensive Line Stacks
BOS1 at EDM: Patrice Bergeron (8200 FD, 7500 DK), David Pastrnak (7900 FD, 7400 DK), Brad Marchand (8200 FD, 7100 DK) – The premier fantasy line in hockey has a good matchup Thursday at Edmonton in an up-tempo game (BOS 257 OR, EDM 252 OR/252 DR). The line has produced 13 goals and 17 assists in five games, with each player having at least nine points – hey look, they scored again twice while I was writing this. Their only weakness is salary, as it is a tough line to afford.
TB2 vs DET: Nikita Kucherov (7900 FD, 6800 DK), Tyler Johnson (5600 FD, 5100 DK), Ondrej Palat (5200 FD, 5200 DK) – Well, if you played this line on Tuesday, you probably did well thanks to Tyler Johnson's hat trick, even though the other two players did not contribute much. Detroit plays at one of the slowest paces in the league (average 235 OR/DR), but the shots they have allowed have been finding the back of the net at an alarming rate (six games, 27 goals, 208 shots against, .864 save percentage, 4.45 GAA). Tampa has struggled in three of their first four games, but Thursday night looks to be a big spot to attack against the Red Wings.
WPG1 vs VAN: Mark Scheifele (7300 FD, 6400 DK), Blake Wheeler (7200 FD, 6200 DK), Kyle Connor (5400 FD, 6100 DK) – Winnipeg put up four goals on Tuesday at home against Edmonton, but their star line was rather quiet. Vancouver continues to play tougher than their numbers show (227 OR/255 DR), but this will be the final game in a tough six-game road trip, I think the dam is going to break on them here as they work their way back to Western Canada.
PIT2 at TOR: Evgeni Malkin (8600 FD, 6700 DK), Phil Kessel (8000 FD, 6600 DK), Carl Hagelin (3700 FD, 3800 DK) – Pittsburgh laid a large egg at home against Vancouver on Tuesday, but the Malkin/Kessel pairing is still a deadly duo. Toronto has been one of the poorest defenses in the league all year (256 DR), but they have also been one of the best offenses (259 OR), Toronto will score goals and Pittsburgh will press to keep up, and the Pens need a big game from their stars.
NJ1 vs COL: Taylor Hall (7700 FD, 7200 DK), Kyle Palmieri (6500 FD, 7000 DK), Nico Hischier (5800 FD, 5400 DK) – Palmieri now has tallied seven goals in four games, but neither of his linemates have found the back of the net yet, but both Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier have multiple assists and are averaging over three shots on goal per game. Colorado has a slightly below average defense (246 DR) and with New Jersey able to make the home team matchups, I like NJ1 to have a good game Thursday.
CLS1 vs PHI: Artemi Panarin (7800 FD, 6100 DK), Cam Atkinson (7000 FD, 6000 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6200 FD, 5500 DK) – This line has been under-the-radar productive early in the season, with six goals in their first five games. Philadelphia has been terrible defensively, allowing 24 goals in the past five games, so attacking with the home team's top line and offensively best option looks to be a solid choice here.
SJ1 vs BUF: Joe Pavelski (7200 FD, 6200 DK), Evander Kane (6900 FD, 6300 DK), Kevin Labanc (4500 FD, 4800 FD) – Buffalo has been unpredictable this year, but if Carter Hutton (10 goals allowed in past two games) starts again for the Sabres I will be firing up SJ1 and possibly SJ2 (see below). Back home after a five-game road trip, the Sharks should well-rested after not having played since Sunday. Since this line came together following the Joe Thornton injury, they have produced five goals in three games.
Value Line Stacks
TOR1 vs PIT: Auston Matthews (8600 FD, 8200 DK), Patrick Marleau (5900 FD, 5000 DK), Kasperi Kapanen (4200 FD, 5900 DK) – It seems unfair to list this line as a "value play", but you can split them up to save some cap but cutting Marleau on FanDuel or Kapanen on DraftKings. Pittsburgh has not been as bad defensively as it seems since Casey DeSmith became the starter, and Matt Murray looks like he might be back Thursday, but firing up the Leafs' top line in this spot is still a good play.
CHI1 vs ARI: Jonathan Toews (7100 FD, 6800 DK), Alex DeBrincat (6300 FD, 6400 DK), Dominik Kahun (3600 FD, 3700 DK) – This is the best value three-man line on the board Thursday, after having put up 12 goals and 48 shots on goal in their first five games, all three players provide good value with Kahun providing a goal and three assists so far. Arizona has a subpar defense (257 DR) and Chicago just surpassed Carolina for the top offense in the league based on my rankings (282 OR).
SJ2 vs BUF: Logan Couture (6600 FD, 5800 DK), Tomas Hertl (5500 FD, 5700 DK), Timo Meier (4700 FD, 5500 DK) – This line has been overshadowed by the top San Jose line, but they are still three talented players in a good matchup at home against Buffalo. Couture gets top power-play time, but you still get Hertl and Meier together on the second unit.
LA1 vs NYI: Anze Kopitar (7300 FD, 6300 DK), Tyler Toffoli (6000 FD, 5400 DK), Alex Iafallo (3700 FD, 4500 DK) &
LA2 vs NYI: Ilya Kovalchuk (6400 FD, 5900 DK), Jeff Carter (6100 FD, 5800 DK), Mike Amadio (3000 FD, 2900 DK) – This is a new alignment for the Kings, but I like the shift up as it will give Kopitar a better distributor to play with in Toffoli, while Carter gets a better scorer to pass to in Kovalchuk. The Islanders will be coming off a back-to-back, albeit with no travel necessary, but with one of the worst defenses in the league (268 DR), the Kings should be able to garner a few goals in this game; choosing the correct Kings line may be tough, but I'm leaning towards the Carter/Kovalchuk line.
Solo Forward Options
These players can play be played as fill-ins with GPP stacks or in cash-game mixes.
Mitch Marner TOR2 vs PIT (6900 FD, 6900 DK) – John Tavares is a stud, and I like to play them both, but if you want to save some cap or mix up your cash-game lineups, Marner can be a solid solo play to get some exposure to the TOR2 line and top power-play unit.
Jake Guentzel PIT1 at TOR (6800 FD, 6000 DK) – I wrote up Guentzel in this section Tuesday, and he scored a goal on three shots, while Sidney Crosby was a near zero once again. Continue to use PIT2, but if you want more exposure to PIT1, deploy Guentzel as a solo play with some other line stacks.
Patrick Kane CHI2 vs ARI (8300 FD, 7600 DK) – This is a hefty price tag, but with 33 shots, five goals and three assists in the first five games of the season, Kane has flown under-the-radar a bit due to the success of the top Chicago line. Kane is by far the best player on the CHI2 line, but you can pair him with Nick Schmaltz for a solid duo.
Josh Anderson CLS3 vs PHI (4200 FD, 4900 DK) – Three goals and 16 shots in five games, plus a great matchup home against Philadelphia makes Anderson a solid cheap option if you are looking for a solo cap helper, especially on FanDuel.
Expensive Defensemen
Victor Hedman TB vs DET (6100 FD, 6000 DK) – Hedman has had a quiet year so far, but he is a guy that can heat up at any time and come through with a multiple point effort en route to a monster fantasy night; a home date with Detroit could do the trick. Pairing him with Kucherov/Johnson or the whole TB2 line should be a nice grouping Thursday.
Morgan Rielly TOR vs PIT (5700 FD, 6200 DK) – Rielly was held off the scoresheet for the first time this year in Toronto's previous game against the Kings, but I do not expect that happen again Thursday. With three goals and 10 assists – six on the power play – there are few better blue-line spots than the one Rielly holds down in Toronto.
Zach Werenski CLS vs PHI (5400 FD, 5500 DK) – Werenski was in my first article last Thursday and he rewarded me by scoring his first goal of the season, let's go for number two this Thursday. Werenski has the favorable position of leading the Blue Jackets in average ice time, plus manning the top power-play spot on the blue line.
Value Defensemen
Henri Jokiharju CHI vs ARI (3900 FD, 5600 DK) – This is a FanDuel misprice special, there are few pricing discrepancies larger than this between the two sites; DraftKings may be a little aggressive, but sub-$4,000 for talented rookie at home against Arizona is a mistake – pounce while you still can.
Josh Morrissey WPG vs VAN (4400 FD, 5600 DK) – Another FanDuel special, but this one comes with a contingency as Morrissey's involvement requires that Dustin Byfuglien sits out another game. With five assists and 23-plus minutes of average ice time, there are few better values Thursday than Morrissey at home against Vancouver if he maintains the top power-play duties for another game. Keep an eye on Byfuglien's status throughout the day.
Update: Byfuglien is playing Thursday night.
Duncan Keith CHI vs ARI (5600 FD, 4700 DK) – I feel like I owe you a DraftKings play, so here it is with an alternate Chicago option in one of their veteran blueliners. Keith has recorded four assists and 15 shots on goal in the first five games of the year, proving the 14-year vet still has it.
Goalies
One mistake I made when I first started playing DFS Hockey was overvaluing wins for goalies. The stat you want to focus on is saves. Wins and losses are much harder to predict than you may think, and while I do not completely ignore the factor of wins, I think many players over-rate it when they choose their goalie. I do not suggest starting a bad goalie facing a team like Toronto or Tampa Bay in order to accumulate saves, because goals allowed are important to avoid as well.
Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs DET (9000 FD, 8500 DK) – I did not like the value on Vasilevskiy last game against Vancouver, so it was nice that he ended up not starting the game. The home matchup Thursday against Detroit is perhaps the best one you can get in the NHL right now; a massive -300 favorite on the moneyline, the biggest concern is how many saves will he get. I typically do not like to gamble on goalies where I think most of their value comes from the victory points, but there is just too much potential for a win here with decent shutout chances (225 OR and 8.0% shooting for Detroit) to completely ignore him in your lineups, especially cash lineups.
Keith Kinkaid NJ vs COL (8200 FD, 7900 DK) – Kinkaid is the hottest goaltender in the league right now, winning four straight games and recording a pair of shutouts in the process. Colorado has one of the premier lines in hockey with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog, but outside of the top line, they are probably the worst offense in the league (229 OR, 29th in the league). I do not expect a shutout Thursday, but aside from a goal or two by the top line, I do not foresee the Avalanche getting another goal past Kinkaid.
Martin Jones SJ vs BUF (8400 FD, 8000 DK) – Jones has struggled this year, with only one win in four starts, but a matchup against the lowly Sabres (233 OR) in what will only be his second home start of the year, should be a nice spot. Due to the struggles Jones and the Sharks have had defensively this year, Jones should fly a little under-the-radar in ownership, making him a good play in any format.
Jonathan Quick LA vs NYI (8000 FD, 8000 DK) – The Islanders spoiled a John Gibson shutout
bid Wednesday in Anaheim with 35 seconds to go in the third period, but still fell 4-1 while getting 35 shots on goal. The Anaheim/Los Angeles back-to-back is the one of the easiest in the league in terms of travel, but that does not mean the Islanders will be fresh by any means.
Note: The original article recommended projected starter Jack Campbell, but Quick is getting the start Thursday night.
