Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I do believe in different Cash vs GPP lineup construction though.

In GPP Tournaments, I think you should have at least one full line stack, potentially two full stacks (or at least two forwards plus a corresponding defenseman). However, in cash-game lineups, you are probably much better off limiting your team-by-team exposure to two players maximum, with an exception of potentially using three players from the same team on smaller slates.

My favorite way to approach cash-game lineups is to choose my top player of the night and use his lower priced linemate. For example, Toronto center Auston Matthews is a great play almost nightly, but instead of pairing him with Patrick Marleau, use the cheaper wing linemate -- Kasperi Kapanen -- this way you still get exposure to two-thirds of a top Toronto line, but you save cap space to get more firepower elsewhere in your lineup.

Use this strategy by choosing one or two players from the lines below and mixing up your cash-game rosters, instead of full-line stacks as you would in your GPP lineups.

I tend to be fairly math-oriented in my research, but you should not be a slave to your rankings as numbers often lie. That said, my main sources of ranking data include a Shots/Minute, Shooting Percentage, Corsi For/Minute and Corsi Against/Minute player ranking system to determine team pace, offensive and defensive ranks.

For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi, it is a metric to determine puck possession and can also be used for pace considerations. Essentially, a Corsi For (CF) event occurs every time a specific player is on the ice when a shot is taken – whether that shot is on goal, off target, or blocked does not matter – any shot is a Corsi For event. Conversely, if the opposing team takes a shot while a specific player is on the ice, that is a Corsi Against (CA) event. Different metrics look at the ratio of CF vs. CA either as a percentage or Plus/Minus ratio.

For those of you familiar with my articles, I've made a small change to the nomenclature of my Rating System, which has an average 245 Rating/Game per team (0.81/min per player). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 281 (CHI) to a worst of 227 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 215 (CAR) to a worst of 279 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.

Slate Preview: Thursday, October 25, 2018

A massive 10-game Main Slate Thursday in the NHL. For future articles, the following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected (P) or Confirmed (C) tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Expensive Line Stacks

BOS1 vs PHI: Patrice Bergeron (8100 FD, 7800 DK), David Pastrnak (8300 FD, 8100 DK), Brad Marchand (7900 FD, 6700 DK) – Philadelphia is giving up 4.11 goals per game, second-worst in the league; if this game was in Philly, there would be concerns about the Giroux/Couturier line matching up with BOS1, but being in Boston there will be ample chances to get positive matchups against the other Philly lines.

WAS1 at EDM: Alex Ovechkin (8900 FD, 8000 DK), Evgeny Kuznetsov (7600 FD, 7300 DK), Devante Smith-Pelly (3300 FD, 4200 DK) – Smith-Pelly will help with the salary cap hit for this line, and while he did not record any fantasy points in Washington's previous game, he moved onto the WSH1 line in the middle of their game last Friday and scored a goal off of a Kuznetsov assist. Edmonton has given up 15 goals over their past four games and struggles mightily against their opponents' top lines.

EDM1 vs WAS: Connor McDavid (9200 FD, 7900 DK), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6600 FD, 6000 DK), Kailer Yamamoto (3500 FD, 4300 DK) – McDavid is off to an MVP-caliber season with five goals and eight assists in seven games, and he really makes Edmonton tick on every level, as he has been involved in 13 of 18 goals scored by the Oilers this season. Washington has been in a funk defensively, allowing 21 goals in their past five games, this could be a high-scoring affair get in on the action some way or another.

STL1 vs CLS: Vladimir Tarasenko (7300 FD, 6500 DK), Brayden Schenn (6200 FD, 5600 DK), Jaden Schwartz (5500 FD, 5000 DK) – Columbus is allowing 3.75 goals per game, more so due to bad goaltending than bad defense (240 DR), although Joonas Korpisalo is starting Thursday and he has been the better of the two Columbus goaltenders. This trio was reunited two games ago and has yet to find their footing, which should keep their ownership down, but I like St. Louis to be one of the higher scoring teams of the night.

VALUE LINE STACKS

MIN1 vs LA: Eric Staal (6900 FD, 5500 DK), Jason Zucker (5700 FD, 5600 DK), Nino Niederreiter (4200 FD, 3800 DK) – The Kings are an absolute mess right now, they cannot score (1.89 goals for per game), but more importantly they cannot stop anyone from scoring (3.56 goals against per game). The addition of Niederreiter to the Staal/Zucker duo should pay immediate dividends, as he is a big upgrade from journeyman Matt Read, who was previously on the MIN1 line.

CHI1 vs NYR: Jonathan Toews (7000 FD, 6200 DK), Alex DeBrincat (6400 FD, 6600 DK), Dominik Kahun (3700 FD, 3700 DK) – Hey look CHI1 is in my article…again. This line will likely be tasked with shutting down NYR1 (Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello & Chris Kreider) who went off for four goals Tuesday. While Zuccarello is a solid defender (0.73 CA/min), Mika Zibanejad (0.81 CA/min) is right at the league average and Chris Kreider (0.86 CA/min) is a poor defender; the extra defensive ice time for CHI1 should result in some extra offensive chances.

BOS2 vs PHI: David Krejci (5400 FD, 5100 DK), Jake DeBrusk (4700 FD, 4200 DK), Danton Heinen (3200 FD, 3800 DK) – BOS1 gets most of the accolades for Boston, but their second line has some solid talent, and you even get some top power-play unit exposure with Heinen (Krejci and DeBrusk pair together on the second power-play unit). This line could draw some extended time against the top Philadelphia line, where Claude Giroux & Sean Couturier offer some excellent defense, but the addition of Travis Konecny to that duo brings down the overall defensive talent of the unit.

ARI1 vs VAN: Clayton Keller (5900 FD, 5400 DK), Alex Galchenyuk (5100 FD, 5400 DK), Lawson Crouse (3000 FD, 2900 DK) – ARI2 had the monster game Tuesday with Christian Fischer recording a hat trick, but I'm betting on ARI1 at home against Vancouver (253 DR) off a back-to-back. Keller has been the Coyotes' best player, and Galchenyuk was a key offseason acquisition that just returned from injury.

Solo Forward Options

These players can play be played as fill-ins with GPP stacks or in cash-game mixes.

Tyler Seguin DAL1 vs ANH (7700 FD, 7600 DK) – Although John Gibson has arguably been one of, if not, the best goalie in the league so far (.949 SV%), Anaheim allows 37.9 shots per game, the most in the league and Seguin is first in the league in shots on goal per game (46 in eight games). This seems like a good combination to me.

Patrick Kane CHI2 vs NYR (8600 FD, 7500 DK) – Kane is far from a value play, but he offers one of the best floor/upside combinations in the league with his ability to pepper the net (eight goals and a league-high 48 shots). A home game against the Rangers offers a big chance to improve on those numbers.

Travis Konecny PHI1 at BOS (4800 FD, 3900 DK) – A promotion to the top line makes Konecny a good value option Thursday, even though the matchup is far from ideal at Boston, whose top two lines offer elite defensive groups.

Tyler Pitlick DAL1 vs ANH (3300 FD, 4000 DK) – Pitlick is probably a FanDuel-only play, and you could stack the DAL1 line, but I think you are better off just taking a stab with one player from this line against John Gibson. This play is also contingent on Alexander Radulov remaining sidelined due to injury.

Update: Pitlick is skating on the second line with Jason Spezza, but he's still on the top power-play unit. Stacking with him Spezza and John Klingberg is affordable on this slate.

Expensive Defensemen

John Carlson WAS at EDM (6600 FD, 6800 DK) – The price has risen, but Carlson is off to a monster start to the season with 13 points (five goals, eight assists) in eight games. The power-play point man is sharing the ice with Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie with the man advantage, which is about as posh as a gig as you can get in the NHL for a defenseman.

Mark Giordano CGY vs PIT (5400 FD, 5700 DK) – Pittsburgh had a blip on the radar with their good defensive performance last Thursday against Toronto, but five goals allowed at Edmonton was more in line with how they had been playing defensively. Calgary should be productive in this game, they have two solid forward lines which are tough to choose between nightly, but Giordano is their clear top blueliner.

Oscar Klefbom EDM vs WAS (4800 FD, 5400 DK) – A solid value on FanDuel, but the price is still right on DraftKings as well. Klefbom is a major benefactor on the Connor McDavid gravy train in Edmonton. The combination of top power-play time and top defensive pair minutes give him big upside on any given night.

Value Defensemen

Mathew Dumba MIN vs LA (4600 FD, 5200 DK) / Jared Spurgeron (4400 FD, 3600 DK) – I'd go with Dumba on FanDuel and Spurgeon on DraftKings, but you are going to want to get exposure against the Kings to pair with your Minnesota stacks, I think both of these guys offer better value than Ryan Suter (5500 FD, 5800 DK), but he is in play as well.

Vince Dunn STL vs CLS (3700 FD, 4600 DK) – While his game is not elite, Dunn possesses a very important top pairing and top power-play time role for the Blues, and he's a recommended stack play with STL1.

Matt Grzelcyk BOS vs PHI (3800 FD, 3900 DK) – Grzelcyk offers limited upside, but the price point and top power-play time, puts him in a prime spot at home against a poor defensive Philadelphia team. His salary helps immensely with offsetting the high price of the BOS1 stacks.

Goalies

One mistake I made when I first started playing DFS Hockey was overvaluing wins for goalies. The stat you want to focus on is saves. Wins and losses are much harder to predict than you may think, and while I do not completely ignore the factor of wins, I think many players over-rate it when they choose their goalie. I do not suggest starting a bad goalie facing a team like Toronto or Tampa Bay in order to accumulate saves, because goals allowed are important to avoid as well.

Devan Dubnyk MIN vs LA (8600 FD, 8300 DK) – Target the Kings on both sides of the ledger until further notice, because even with their struggles offensively (1.89 goals per game), I still project them to have 32.5 shots on goal Thursday, which puts Dubnyk firmly among the top projected scorers of the night at the position.

Jaroslav Halak BOS vs PHI (7700 FD, 8100 DK) – Halak has been great in his five appearances this year (1.74 GAA, .933 SV%), which goes to show how much a good defense is worth because he was horrible last year for the Islanders. Philadelphia has some talented offensive pieces, but they struggle with their secondary lines and have a below average Offensive Rating overall (240 OR); couple this with Philadelphia's defensive struggles and you have the makings of a great value play here.

Corey Crawford CHI vs NYR (7900 FD, 8400 DK) – Crawford is a FanDuel-only play most likely. The Rangers' top line had a monster game Tuesday, but they will struggle to get quality shots off against the Toews' line defense. Crawford has won two of three starts since returning from injury, and has given up only two goals in his past two starts – he will likely allow a few goals in this game, but due to Chicago's penchant for allowing shots on goal (35.8, fifth-most in the league), Crawford should rack up a decent amount of saves and a good chance at a victory.

Darcy Kuemper ARI vs VAN (7200 FD, 7700 DK) – Kuemper earned another start after a win Tuesday in Columbus. He's been sharp early on this season (1.51 GAA, .953 SV%) and Vancouver was forced to play OT and a shootout Wednesday in Vegas, so they will likely be tired even with the short travel to Phoenix. Arizona is starting to score some goals too, which helps the chances at adding those fantasy points for the victory.