Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.6). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 55.4 (TOR) to a worst of 45.5 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (BOS) to a worst of 57.8 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 51.7 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Thursday, November 29, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday has eight games with all 16 teams being rested. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line)

WPG1 vs. CHI: Mark Scheifele-1 ($8,000 FD, $7,600 DK), Blake Wheeler-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,100 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers-2 ($5,100 FD, $5,000 DK)
WPG2 vs. CHI: Patrik Laine-1 ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK), Kyle Connor-1 ($5,800 FD, $6,400 DK), Bryan Little-2 ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK) - It's hard to go wrong with either of these lines, but choosing the correct one nightly is not a fun task, they are both extremely talented, and Thursday they will both matchup with equally solid opposing defensive lines in CHI1 & CHI2; the good news about this is that Chicago's back end defense and goaltending have been poor of late allowing 20 goals in their last four games. If you go for an even-strength line stack I would lean toward WPG1 due to Winnipeg getting the home advantage of seeing the line matchups, but I think the best way to attack this game is to go for the gusto and play the four WPG PP1 wings and save elsewhere -- this gives you exposure to both lines and a huge power-play correlation, plus I do not think any of their defensemen are that great of values Thursday anyway.

CLS1 vs. MIN: Artemi Panarin-2 ($7,600 FD, $6,700 DK), Cam Atkinson-1 ($7,200 FD, $7,200 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois-1 ($6,000 FD, $6,300 DK) - Minnesota is a good defensive team on paper but if Devan Dubnyk is in net again, I like Columbus in this spot Thursday. This line has been on fire lately with 10 goals and 14 assists over their last five games, with each player recording at least seven points. With Columbus being at home, CLS1 should be able to avoid the elite defense of MIN2 in most cases.

CHI2 at WPG: Patrick Kane-1 ($8,200 FD, $6,800 DK), Alex DeBrincat-1 ($6,200 FD, $5,300 DK), Dylan Strome-2 ($4,400 FD, $3,900 DK) - Although Winnipeg shows up strong in my ranking system (46.9 DR), they have allowed 21 goals in their last five games so I am willing to take a shot here with a newly mixed line that looks to be gelling well together. Newly acquired Strome scored a goal and had an assist in his first game with the Blackhawks and centered a line with Kane and Debrincat, who each chipped in with an assist. Chicago was obliterated by Vegas 8-3 on Tuesday, I'm hoping the team regrouped at practice Wednesday and will hit the ice hard on Thursday night in what could be a high scoring affair.

Also in play: EDM1 vs LA, TB2 vs BUF, NSH1 vs ARI, BOS1 vs NYI

VALUE LINE STACKS

NYR1 at OTT: Mika Zibanejad-2 ($7,100 FD, $6,400 DK), Chris Kreider-2 ($6,500 FD, $6,600 DK), Ryan Strome-2 ($3,300 FD, $3,000 DK) - Philadelphia didn't capitalize on the matchup against Ottawa as most had figured they would but they were still effective, and many Philadelphia stack teams finished near the top of GPP leaderboards. This newly formed line looks to be a great spot to attack Thursday as Zibanejad (eight goals, 13 assists) and Kreider (13 goals, eight assists) are clearly the two best offensive players on the Rangers, and Strome has a goal and two assists in six games since being acquired via trade from Edmonton - NYR1 rates as my top overall value line of the day.

VGK2 at VAN: Max Pacioretty-1 ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK), Alex Tuch-1 ($5,400 FD, $6,100 DK), Cody Eakin-2 ($4,600 FD, $5,000 DK) - Jonathan Marchessault and VGK1 get most of the accolades when Vegas is discussed but VGK2 has been one of the best lines in hockey in the past two weeks; over the past six games the line has combined for 12 goals and 11 assists with Pacioretty contributing six of the goals and three of the helpers. Vancouver has been one of the worst defenses in the league all season (3.48 goals allowed per game) and Vegas comes in on a heater winning four in a row while scoring 19 goals in that stretch.

OTT2 vs. NYR: Mark Stone-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,900 DK), Brady Tkachuk-1 ($4,900 FD, $6,500 DK), Colin White-1 ($4,100 FD, $4,800 DK) - The prices are rising, and may be too expensive on DraftKings, but I am still diving in on FanDuel. Tkachuk is proving nightly that he is a serious frontrunner for the Calder Trophy and that time spent in locker rooms as a kid following his dad around has made his transition to the NHL seem easy. Stone continues to produce an All-Star caliber season with a pair of goals and assists in his past two games, but the most amazing part to his game is the +11 rating on the worst defensive team in hockey. White has a goal and three assists in his last three games, however, he has ceded power-play time over the past three games, so there is reason to consider sliding Matt Duchene in his spot in order to differentiate a little as OTT2 is likely to be highly owned.

NSH3 vs. ARI: Nick Bonino-1 ($3,800 FD, $3,500 DK), Colton Sissons-2 ($3,600 FD, $3,400 DK), Austin Watson-0 ($3,600 FD, $4,800 DK) - Opponents typical expend a lot of energy in stopping Filip Forsberg and NSH1, which can allow Nashville's secondary lines sneak up on teams. NSH2 (Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Hartman) is not a bad line either, but Craig Smith is more of a solo play option on that line, whereas all three players on NSH3 can been productive as a unit when they get in on the scoring action. The matchup against Arizona and pricetags here can allow you to get big pieces in for Winnipeg or Columbus stacks.

Also in play: NSH2 vs ARI, NYR2 at OTT

Solo Forward Options

Matt Duchene-2 OTT1 vs. NYR ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK) - Duchene is the leading scorer for Ottawa this season even though he has not been given the same caliber of linemates as Mark Stone has been given.

Jonathan Marchessault-1 VGK1 at VAN ($7,000 FD, $6,000 DK) - VGK2 is one of my favorite lines in the league and I prefer them overall to VGK1, but Marchessault is their top offensive weapon and should be considered as a solid solo option Thursday against Vancouver.

Boone Jenner-2 CLS2 vs. MIN ($4,800 FD, $6,100 DK) / Josh Anderson-2 CLS2 vs. MIN ($4,400 FD, $5,000 DK) - Jenner has a goal and three assists while Anderson has three goals and an assist in their last three games; they both play together on CLS2 and the second power-play unit with Artemi Panarin and Zach Werenski, so there is some strong talent on the second power play unit.

Craig Smith-1 NSH2 vs. ARI ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) - As stated above in the NSH3 write-up, teams tend to focus on stopping NSH1 allowing the second and third lines to sneak under-the-radar. The thing I like best about Smith is that he gets top power-play duties along with being the main focal point of the offense when NSH2 is on the ice.

Alex Chiasson-1 EDM1 vs. LA ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - Edmonton was quiet Tuesday against Dallas and the matchup against the Kings is not the best on the board Thursday, but there is still immense value on Chiasson with his exposure to Connor McDavid on both the even strength and power-play lines.

Colby Cave-2 BOS1 vs. NYI (N/A FD, $3,000 DK) - Cave is not even listed on FanDuel but looks like an elite option on DraftKings as the top line center between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak plus a spot on the second power play.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward.)

Neal Pionk-1 NYR at OTT ($4,800 FD, $5,000 DK) - Pionk is the play of the night on the blue line as most players are when they face Ottawa; he has slowed a little from his torrid stretch in early November, but he is still producing with a goal, an assist, nine shots and five blocks in the last four games.

Roman Josi-2 NSH vs. ARI ($6,600 FD, $6,700 DK) - Josi has been a machine with P.K. Subban out with an injury, recording seven assists, 31 shots on goal and eight blocked shots in seven games with Subban out. A few of those shots are bound to find the back of the net soon, I'm betting on him lighting the lamp Thursday against Arizona.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT vs. NYR ($5,600 FD, $6,500 DK) - The price is starting to rise on FanDuel, but Chabot has still been one of the best fantasy defensemen in the league with seven goals and 22 assists in 25 games (Morgan Rielly is the only higher scoring fantasy blueliner).

Seth Jones-1 CLS vs. MIN ($5,300 FD, $5,900 DK) - The All-Star defenseman has only talied one point in the last six games, but he has 17 shots on goal in the past four games and is averaging nearly three shots plus two blocked shots per game on the year; this production gives him an amazing floor (8 FD points, 2.5 DK points) and allows for Jones to provide big games when he does get on the scoresheet. The top power-play unit spot gives him correlation with Dubois & Atkinson from CLS1.

Colin Miller-1 VGK at VAN ($4,400 FD, $4,400 DK) - We flipped the coin wrong on Miller and Shea Theodore on Tuesday, so we are going back to Miller again Thursday; but if you are playing more pieces of the second Vegas power play consider Theodore ($4,800 FD, $5,400) for the correlation.

Erik Gustafsson-1 CHI at WPG ($4,000 FD, $4,100 DK) / Gustav Forsling-2 CHI at WPG ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK) - Gustafsson and Forsling both provide solid value and come with power-play time in what should be a high-scoring affair again Winnipeg.

Also in play: Shea Theodore-2 VGK at VAN ($4,800 FD, $5,400), Jacob Trouba-2 WPG vs. CHI ($4,600 FD, $4,600 DK), Josh Morrissey-2 WPG vs. CHI ($4,000 FD, $4,300 DK), Anthony DeAngelo-1 NYR at OTT ($3,600 FD, $4,400 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Mikko Koskinen EDM vs. LA ($8,000 FD, $7,900 DK) - Edmonton is crazy if they use Cam Talbot on anything but back-to-backs as Koskinen is clearly the better option in goal right now. The Kings are the worst goal-scoring team in the league (2.17 per game), but they are in the middle of the pack in shots on goal (31.3, 19th), so the save/goal allowed ratio looks like a good spot for Koskinen.

Pekka Rinne NSH vs. ARI ($9,100 FD, $8,500 DK) - Rinne hasn't been all that sharp over the last two games with back-to-back sub-.900 SV% games against the Ducks and Avalanche, some of that can be attributed to the injuries to Viktor Arvidsson and P.K. Subban, who are unfortunately both still out Thursday. Arizona is still a good spot for a victory and the defensive deficiencies may actually help Rinne tally some additional saves.

Marc-Andre Fleury VGK at VAN ($8,600 FD, $8,100 DK) - Vancouver is a sub-par offensive team scoring only 2.85 goals per game (21st in the league) but putting up a league average figure in shots on goal (31.7), so there is a nice potential for saves here in a game where Fleury can allow two goals or fewer. Fleury was on his way to a solid game Tuesday against Chicago when the Golden Knights got a little lazy defensively with their big lead and allowed a turnover in the defensive zone that lead to a soft third goal with less than five minutes left in the game.

Also in play: Connor Hellebuyck WPG vs. CHI ($8,300 FD, $8,400 DK), Sergei Bobrovsky CLS vs. MIN ($8,800 FD, $8,200 DK)