Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.6). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 57.7 (TOR) to a worst of 45.7 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (NSH) to a worst of 60.6 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 53.3 (CHI). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Thursday, December 6, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday is large, featuring 11 games with tons of options, both on the high-priced side and the value side. It looks like a great cash-game slate but a difficult tournament slate to get enough coverage. Only Chicago is playing on the second half of a back-to-back; and only Minnesota is playing on the front end of a back-to-back.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

PIT2 vs. NYI: Evgeni Malkin-1 ($8,100 FD, $6,700 DK), Patric Hornqvist-1 ($6,200 FD, $6,700 DK), Tanner Pearson-2 ($4,500 FD, $3,300 DK) - The injury to Dominik Simon creates a domino-effect in the valuation of the Pittsburgh lines -- Bryan Rust has slotted into the top line alongside Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, this is a detriment to Crosby and Guentzel as Rust may be the worst player on the Penguins roster. Additionally, Pearson slides into Simon's spot on the second power play; this adds to the value that PIT2 provides at home against the Islanders (49.2 DR) on Thursday. This line produced four goals and three assists Tuesday, it would be dumb to expect a repeat of that performance, but they don't need that much production to be a strong play Thursday.

FLA1 vs. COL: Aleksander Barkov-1 ($7,500 FD, $6,000 DK), Mike Hoffman-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,300 DK), Jonathan Huberdeau-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,200 DK) - Colorado is a much better defense at home and was just torched for six goals in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, I have a feeling they are going to have trouble handling this FLA1 line Thursday especially with Phillip Grubbauer in net. Huberdeau continued his hot streak with another goal and two assists which brings his total to three goals and 11 assists over the past six games, leaving his linemates Barkov (three goals, five assists) and Hoffman (four goals, two assist) looking like they are slacking off when in reality they are both on fire as well.

TOR1 vs. DET: Auston Matthews-1 ($8,600 FD, $8,300 DK), William Nylander-2 ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK), Patrick Marleau-2 ($5,500 FD, $4,700 DK)
TOR2 vs. DET: John Tavares-1 ($8,000 FD, $7,400 DK), Mitch Marner-1 ($7,800 FD, $7,100 DK), Zach Hyman-0 ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK) - Matthews has five goals and two assists in three games since returning from a four-week injury stint, but not to be outdone, Marner has turned into an assist machine with 11 helpers over the past five games. The best way to play Toronto is to mix and match their power play, but it all starts with Matthews, don't leave the starting line without him on your Toronto stacks. William Nylander returns after a length contract holdout but is playing on the second power-play unit to start out, so I'd consider giving him a few games before working him into the mix.

CGY1 vs. MIN: Johnny Gaudreau-1 ($8,300 FD, $7,200 DK), Sean Monahan-1 ($7,800 FD, $6,900 DK), Elias Lindholm-1 ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK) - This line went off Tuesday with five goals and five assists in route to a 9-6 extravaganza against Columbus. Calgary returns home Thursday to face a Minnesota team that is not bad on paper (2.85 GAA, 29.8 Shots Against, 47.4 DR) but they have not played well in recent weeks allowing 4+ goals in four of their last six games. At home, Calgary can avoid Minnesota's best defense line (MIN2 46.1 DR) and take advantage of the better matchups of MIN1 (48.2 DR) and MIN3 (49.7 DR).

Also in play: PHI1 vs CLS, CLS1 at PHI, TB2 vs BOS, VGK1 vs CHI

VALUE LINE STACKS

MON1 at OTT: Max Domi-1 ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK), Jonathan Drouin-1 ($5,800 FD, $6,500 DK), Andrew Shaw-2 ($3,700 FD, $5,500 DK) - This line exploded for three goals and four assists in the home matchup between these two teams Tuesday and they are in a great spot again Thursday. Ottawa will attempt to avoid repeating the 5-2 loss, but Montreal is too talented and should be able to get quality scoring chances, leaving it up to Craig Anderson to salvage being hung out to dry again by the porous Ottawa defense.

OTT1 vs. MON: Matt Duchene-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,300 DK), Ryan Dzingel-1 ($5,500 FD, $5,700 DK), Drake Batherson-1 ($3,700 FD, $4,200 DK) - Being at home, Ottawa can use their top line against MON1 (48.2 DR) and avoid the better defensive group of MON2 (46.1). Duchene has six goals and nine assists over his last 10 games and is the leading scorer on the team with 34 points in 28 games this season. Dzingel is a talented goal scorer who at times has mired down on the third line pairing, but has flourished when he gets time alongside Duchene. Batherson has flashed his skills with seven points in his first 10 career games.

VGK2 vs. CHI: Alex Tuch-1 ($5,400 FD, $6,300 DK), Cody Eakin-2 ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK), Oscar Lindberg-2 ($3,100 FD, $3,000 DK) - VGK1 is an option Thursday but for my money VGK2 is still the line to attack against the tired Blackhawks team that Vegas pummeled 8-3 in Chicago last Tuesday; Max Pacioretty has eight goals and three assists with 22 shots in his last eight games, Tuch has three goals and six assists over that time frame and Eakin has three goals and five assists. There are a lot of good value lines Thursday, but for my money VGK2 may be at the top of the list. Keep an eye out for Pacioretty's status as he did miss Tuesday's game with what is being reported as a "minor issue."

NSH2 at VAN: Craig Smith-1 ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK), Calle Jarnkrok-2 ($3,800 FD, $4,200 DK), Eeli Tolvanen-2 ($3,900 FD, $4,000 DK) - NSH1 is in play as well, but I really like the talent on NSH2 especially on the road where Vancouver will target NSH1 with their better defensive unit(s). Craig Smith has two goals and two assists in his last five games to go along with 15 shots and a quality spot on the top power-play unit. Talented rookie Eeli Tolvanen stepped in for injured star Filip Forsberg and scored a goal and tallied an assist in his first game Saturday, he was quiet in the defensive game against Buffalo on Monday, but I like for Nashville to have some more scoring chances Thursday against a bad defensive Vancouver team.

ARI1 vs. WAS: Clayton Keller-1 ($6,400 FD, $4,900 DK), Nick Schmaltz-1 ($4,500 FD, $4,500 DK), Alex Galchenyuk-1 ($5,200 FD, $3,500 DK) - This should be a great low percentage target Thursday, the acquisition of Schmaltz has proved to be a savvy one for the Coyotes as they have won four straight and Schmaltz has two goals and three assists in those four games. Keller has woken up with a matching two goals and three assists in the past three games, while Galchenyuk has chipped in an assist on one of the Keller goals. Washington maintains one of the worst defenses in the league per my rating system (50.8) and are constantly facing the best opponents have to offer as the defending Stanley Cup champions, I like ARI1 to get on the board a couple times Thursday.

Also in play: MON2 at OTT, OTT2 vs MON, NSH1 at VAN, VAN2 vs NSH

Solo Forward Options

Sidney Crosby-1 PIT1 vs. NYI ($8,800 FD, $7,100 DK) - Crosby is a good way to switch up your exposure to PIT2 since people do not typically go with two centers on the same team, so consider pairing him with Malkin and Hornqvist plus either Kessel, Letang or Pearson for a mixed PIT stack.

Mikael Backlund-2 CGY2 vs. MIN ($5,500 FD, $4,200 DK) / Matthew Tkachuk-1 CGY2 vs. MIN ($6,600 FD, $5,900 DK) - I like CGY2 line tonight, but these guys can be played as solo plays due to their different power-play lines.

Brendan Gallagher-1 MON2 at OTT ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK) - Gallagher is a great way to differentiate your MON1 stacks because he can give you correlation on the power play with Max Domi/Jonathan Drouin while upgrading the Andrew Shaw spot.

Kevin Fiala-2 NSH1 at VAN ($4,700 FD, $5,200 DK) - Fiala has been the hottest player on the Predators roster of late with three goals and three assists in the last six games -- I prefer the NSH2 line as a whole, but Fiala is probably the best overall value play on Nashville.

Josh Leivo-1 VAN2 vs. NSH ($3,000 FD, $2,800 DK) - This is not a great matchup, but Leivo comes with a rock bottom salary and great exposure to Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and the top power-play unit.

Defensemen

Kris Letang-1 PIT vs. NYI ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK) - Although it seems as if Letang has been an elite defenseman forever, he's still only 31 years old and likely has a handful of great seasons to still come. A nightly threat for multiple points, Letang is also one of the safest options there is with an average of five combined shots and blocks, plus a near point-per-game average, it almost feels like he is starting the night at 12 FanDuel / 3.5 DraftKings points as soon as he steps on the ice.

Shea Weber-1 MON at OTT ($5,700 FD, $6,500 DK) - Weber let everyone down in the home matchup against Ottawa on Tuesday, so hopefully that'll keep his ownership levels down. Montreal's offensive weapons are all in play Thursday, but Weber is the first guy you should put on your roster from the Canadiens.
Ryan Ellis-1 NSH at VAN ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK) - Roman Josi is one of the elite blueliners in the league, but for the savings Ellis may provide more value with his peripheral stats -- 24 combined shots and blocks in past five games -- so when he does get his name on the score sheet it usually comes with a quality fantasy point total for the day.

Shea Theodore-2 VGK vs. CHI ($4,800 FD, $5,100 DK) / Colin Miller-1 VGK vs. CHI ($4,300 FD, $4,300 DK) / Nate Schmidt-2 VGK vs. CHI ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) - This is going to be a headache situation all year as you try to figure out the Vegas defenseman of the evening. I had been waiting for Schmidt to pop and he did Tuesday with two goals and an assist and was nowhere to be found on my rosters. I think Theodore will likely continue to be the safest of the option with also a solid upside, however also the highest price tag. Miller probably offers the best mix of price vs. upside, but he's been rather quiet of late with only three points in his last eight games.

Noah Hanifin-2 CGY vs. MIN ($4,000 FD, $3,600 DK) / T.J. Brodie-0 CGY vs. MIN ($4,000 FD, $3,500 DK) - They have almost identical salaries on the two sites and it's not hard to see why with similar resumes; Hanafin has three goals and 10 assists on the year, while Brodie has three goals and nine assists -- and they are both in solid form recently with Hanafin recording three goals and an assist over the past five games, Brodie tallying two goals and three assists in that time. Hanafin gets time on the second power play, but Brodie gets about a minute of extra ice time; I like both guys and think they are great alternatives to Mark Giordano when you need some cap relief in order to get CGY1 into your lineups.

Jakob Chychrun-1 ARI vs. WAS ($3,500 FD, $4,000 DK) - The talented 20-year old is just beginning to scratch the surface of his offensive game, but the home game against Washington (50.6 DR) offers him a great spot to flash his talents against the Stanley Cup Champions.
Also in play: Morgan Rielly-1 TOR vs. DET ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK), Cody Ceci-0 OTT vs. MON ($4,100 FD, $4,500 DK), Dylan DeMelo-2 OTT vs. MON ($3,700 FD, $3,900 DK) (Ceci & DeMelo only if Lajoie remains out)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Garret Sparks, TOR vs. DET ($7,600 FD, $8,300 DK) - Sparks shows up as my top-ranked netminder of the evening regardless of salary, so I agree with DraftKings' assessment of his worth while FanDuel looks to have completely missed the mark with his price. Sparks is 4-1 this year with a 2.57 GAA and a .924 SV%, and in his last four games he's allowed one goal or less three times.

Jonathan Quick, LA vs. NJ ($7,800 FD, $7,500 DK) - Quick has played very well since returning from a knee injury (five goals allowed in three games) but he has not received much offensive support as the Kings have scored five goals during that stretch as well in route to a 1-2 record. Enter the New Jersey Devils, who are struggling on both ends of the ice, losing six in a row while scoring less than three goals per contest and allowing near five goals per game.

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK vs. CHI ($8,900 FD, $8,300 DK) - As stated above Chicago is the only team playing a back-to-back after losing 4-2 in Anaheim on Wednesday. Cam Ward is likely to start for the Blackhawks, who were beaten at home by this same Vegas team last Tuesday 8-3, so Fleury looks like a great bet for the win. Chicago has struggled recently to get shots on net, so Fleury may need to be sharp to get a huge fantasy score, but all-in-all this looks like a great spot to use Fleury.

Casey DeSmith, PIT vs. NYI ($8,200 FD, $7,900 DK) - The Islanders have one of the worst offenses in the league in my ranking system (46.5 OR), but based on results they have outplayed their rating slightly to the tune of 2.92 goals per game. DeSmith has not been lights out of late, but he has not allowed more than three goals in a game since November 19th, so I like his potential here for a win and if the Islanders hold up their end of the bargain, I think DeSmith can allow two goals or less.

Also in play: Pekka Rinne, NSH at VAN ($9,100 FD, $8,400 DK)