Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I've made another small change to the magnitude of my Rating System, which has an average 49.0 Rating per game. The represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it's also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.8 (CAR) to a worst of 44.2 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (CAR) to a worst of 55.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearer show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game, whether those are on goal, off target, or blocked shots – they are still offensive chances for or against.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, November 13, 2018
The Main Slate on Tuesday has a wide-open set of nine games, there is only one team with a Vegas favorite more than -150 (NY Islanders vs. Vancouver); this looks like a great slate for the special Super Crossbar ($7 buy-in) tournament on FanDuel with a $100,000 prize pool. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage.

Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of posting – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.
Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

BUF1 vs. TB: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,500 FD, $7,100 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,800 DK), Sam Reinhart-1 ($4,900 FD, $4,900 DK) - It appears as if Louis Domingue is starting in goal Tuesday for Tampa, which makes BUF1 one of the better lines of the night. Eichel (seven assists) and Skinner (six goals, one assist) have been on fire the past five games, and they will be joined Tuesday night by Sam Reinhart (one goal, five assists in the past five games). Not only has this line produced extremely well, they draw a favorable home matchup against a bad goaltender in Domingue (3.77 GAA, .885 SV%).

MIN2 vs. WAS: Eric Staal-1 ($6,800 FD, $5,700 DK), Mikael Granlund-1 ($6,700 FD, $5,700 DK), Jason Zucker-1 ($5,100 FD, $5,500 DK) - MIN2 is the more talented line, but MIN1 offers some extra salary cap relief if needed (see Value Line Stacks); both lines are in play as full power play correlated stacks as well. Washington has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year (51.4 DR) allowing 3.44 goals against per game and 4.67 game on the road (third-worst in the league). Minnesota is an average offensive team, but in what should be an up-tempo game against a poor defensive team, I think they provide nice value Tuesday.

NYI1 vs. VAN: Anders Lee-1 ($6,500 FD, $6,100 DK), Mathew Barzal-2 ($5,800 FD, $5,300 DK), Josh Bailey-1 ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) - Vancouver draws the New York back-to-back here, so no travel is involved, but they should be tired after a loss against the Rangers on Monday. This puts the Islanders in a favorable spot against a poor defensive Canucks team (50.1 DR) and a likely third-string goalie in Richard Bachman, this should be a good spot for the NYI1 that was reunited last game and produced a Barzal goal in Florida.

EDM1 vs. MON: Connor McDavid-1 ($9,200 FD, $7,900 DK), Leon Draisaitl-1 ($6,400 FD, $5,400 DK), Drake Caggiula-2 ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK) - Edmonton's top line will require some interesting roster alignments as both McDavid and Draisaitl are listed centers on the two sites. Despite Montreal's defensive ranking (47.3 DR), they have allowed 22 goals in the past five games, so Edmonton draws a favorable spot at home Tuesday. Caggiula has been one of the better values since his promotion to the EDM1 line (three goals and 16 shots in six games).

Also in play: PHI1 vs FLA, SJ1/2 vs NSH

VALUE LINE STACKS

MIN1 vs. WAS: Zach Parise-2 ($6,500 FD, $6,200 DK), Mikko Koivu-2 ($5,300 FD, $4,400 DK), Nino Niederreiter-2 ($4,500 FD, $3,700 DK) - See write up for MIN2 above in Expensive Line Stacks.

PIT2 at NJ: Evgeni Malkin-1 ($8,400 FD, $6,700 DK), Patric Hornqvist-1 ($5,400 FD, $5,000 DK), Carl Hagelin-0 ($3,700 FD, $3,200 DK)
PIT1 at NJ: Sidney Crosby-1 ($9,000 FD, $6,800 DK), Dominik Simon-2 ($4,000 FD, $4,200 DK), Bryan Rust-0 ($3,800 FD, $3,700 DK) - New Jersey has been horrible defensively, allowing 34 goals in the last seven games, losing six of those seven contests. Pittsburgh has struggled offensive in recent games, but scored four goals in their last game, led by Sidney Crosby and Dominik Simon who each had a goal and assist apiece. Bryan Rust is not a horrible punt play with the PIT1 stack, but you can safely cut Carl Hagelin from the PIT2 stack. Both lines provide great value on DraftKings.

FLA2 at PHI: Vincent Trocheck-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK), Jonathan Huberdeau-1 ($6,100 FD, $5,900 DK), Frank Vatrano-2 ($3,200 FD, $4,300 DK) - Florida is on the road and Philadelphia has been playing well, winning five of six while allowing only 14 goals over that stretch, with likely starter Brian Elliott winning all four of his starts. I still think this is a good spot for FLA2 as PHI1 (44.9 DR) will likely be tasked with shutting down the FLA1 line. FLA2 should draw matchups against PHI2/3 who combine for a below average defensive rating of 48.6.

NSH2 at SJ: Kyle Turris-1 ($5,300 FD, $4,300 DK), Craig Smith-2 ($5,100 FD, $4,100 DK), Kevin Fiala-1 ($4,000 FD, $3,800 DK) - NSH2 has long been one of the better performing value lines nightly, especially on the road where opponents game plan to shut down Filip Forsberg and the top Predators line. With a game against San Jose, NSH2 finds themselves in position to avoid the solid Joe Pavelski defensive line (47.4 DR), while drawing more favorable matchups again the other Sharks' lines (49.0 DR).

Also in play: NYI2 vs VAN

Solo Forward Options

Taylor Hall-1 NJ1 vs. PIT ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK) - Hall scored 39 goals last year and for his career, he has never fail to scored 20 or more goals when playing more than 53 games, he is currently on pace for only 16 goals in a full 82 games played...the goals are coming, and Tuesday night is a good spot against a poor defensive Pittsburgh team.

Brendan Gallagher-1 MON1 at EDM ($6,700 FD, $6,000 DK)
Tomas Tatar-1 MON1 at EDM ($5,800 FD, $6,500 DK) - I would go with Gallagher on DraftKings and Tatar on FanDuel. Tatar is easily the hotter of the linemates, but Gallagher has been the more consistent player for the season, and a nice matchup against a subpar Edmonton defense (49.1 DR) should make Gallagher and Tatar viable solo options Tuesday.

Dylan Larkin-1 DET1 vs. ARI ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK) - Larkin has very little support surrounding him, but his talent still makes him an option most nights, and a home game against Arizona (51.1 DR) certainly qualifies as a good matchup.

Jeff Carter-1 LA2 vs. TOR ($6,300 FD, $4,800 DK) - Carter has cooled off a little after his hot streak to start November, but a great matchup against Toronto (51.2 DR) makes Carter one of the best values on the board at DraftKings.

Joonas Donskoi-2 SJ1 vs. NSH ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK) - Struggling goaltender Juuse Saros will likely draw the start after the Nashville back-to-back against Anaheim, so targeting some San Jose options can be an option Tuesday; I would look for some value and get exposure to Joe Pavelski by using a sub-$4,000 option in Donskoi.

Colton Sissons-2 NSH1 at SJ ($3,300 FD, $3,400 DK) - Sissons came out of nowhere with a hat trick last Wednesday, but a promotion to the NSH1 line following an injury to Viktor Arvidsson is what excites me about this play.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward)

Kris Letang-1 PIT at NJ ($6,200 FD, $6,200 DK) - Letang has been very cold lately with only a single assist in the past six games, but the matchup Tuesday against New Jersey should put him in a great spot to succeed at a very low ownership percentage.

Shayne Gostisbehere-1 PHI vs. FLA ($5,800 FD, $6,000 DK) - Gostisbehere has started to come on strong with two goals and two assists in the last three games. Florida has an elite goaltender in Roberto Luongo, but they have a poor defense, so Philadelphia should be able to produce Tuesday and I like Gostisbehere to be heavily involved.

Oscar Klefbom-1 EDM vs. MON ($4,800 FD, $5,000 DK) - Klefbom has yet to get on the scoreboard this season, but with a spot on the top power play, he has eight assists and nearly three shots per game, offering some big potential playing alongside Connor McDavid.

Mathew Dumba-2 MIN vs. WAS ($4,800 FD, $4,800 DK) - Dumba is a great fantasy option nightly, as he plays a ton of minutes allowing him to rack up shots, blocks and scoring opportunities; pair him with any of your Minnesota stacks.

Jeff Petry-1 MON at EDM ($4,400 FD, $5,200 DK) - Petry has been an assist machine this year (12 in 17 games) and provides a nice pairing when you use the Gallagher/Tatar duo or solo plays.

Jamie Oleksiak-0 PIT at NJ ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) - If you do not have the cap space for Kris Letang, Jamie Oleksiak appears to be back in the lineup Tuesday after being a healthy scratch last game. In his prior eight games, Oleksiak has produced three goals and four assists, there are not many better values at defense for the price.

Also in play: Brent Burns-1 SJ vs. NSH ($7,200 FD, $6,700 DK)

Goalies

Due to the wide-open nature of the schedule Tuesday, the choices at goalie appear to be extremely difficult, and if you are playing multiple lineups Tuesday, you will likely have exposure to goalies who are playing against skaters that you are considering. As always, make sure your goalie is starting. These articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen TOR at LA ($8,700 FD, $8,200 DK) - The Kings are still last in the league in goals scored, and third-to-last in shots on goal, plus they will be starting their third-string goaltender in Peter Budaj on Tuesday; all this leads me to believe Andersen is in line for a win and Toronto (51.2 DR) allows a high amount of shots, so even with the Kings' deficiencies, a decent save total should be there.

Devan Dubnyk MIN vs. WAS ($8,900 FD, $7,800 DK) - Playing a goalie against Washington is not for the faint of heart, but I think Minnesota is one of the best bets for a win on the board Tuesday, so couple that with the likelihood of a high save total, even with a handful of goals allowed, it should result in a nice fantasy point total for Dubnyk.

Thomas Greiss NYI vs. VAN ($7,800 FD, $8,000 DK) - The Islanders have lost three in a row, but Greiss has played well recently (3-0-1 in last four starts) and is currently the biggest betting favorite on the board at -170. A matchup against the offensively-challenged Canucks (46.4 OR) playing a back-to-back should bode well for Greiss.

Also in play: Jimmy Howard DET vs. ARI ($8,200 FD, $7,200 DK) – Howard is a good value on DraftKings.