Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.6). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.0 (TOR) to a worst of 44.5 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 43.4 (BOS) to a worst of 58.1 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 52.2 (WAS). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, December 4, 2018

The Main Slate on Tuesday has 10 games with only Buffalo and Tampa Bay on the second leg of a back-to-back and no teams on the front end. There are a lot of options, both expensive and value plays Tuesday, so coming up with a single lineup is going to be difficult; if you haven't done it before, tonight is a good night to try your first multi-entry day. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication -- this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks
(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line)

COL1 at PIT: Nathan Mackinnon-1 ($9,100 FD, $7,900 DK), Mikko Rantanen-1 ($8,400 FD, $7,400 DK), Gabriel Landeskog-1 ($7,100 FD, $6,800 DK) - This line is very expensive so cutting one of the wings can become a decent cap option many nights, but MacKinnon and crew are without a doubt the best line in the league this year with a combined 46 goals and 72 assists in only 27 games! The matchup at Pittsburgh isn't the best possible one in the league, but it's not far off the way Pittsburgh has played this season (the Penguins ranks in the bottom-10 in goals and shots allowed per game).

TB2 at DET: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($8,900 FD, $7,500 DK), Brayden Point-1 ($7,900 FD, $6,800 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,800 FD, $4,700 DK) - Tampa Bay is traveling on a back-to-back but the Point/Kucherov duo has been so deadly lately (16 goals, 26 assists in their last 10 games) that I do not think Detroit (49.2 DR) is much of a roadblock. Tyler Johnson is no slouch with five goals and two assists over that 10-game stretch, but he can be cut for another wing option, especially on FanDuel.

VGK1 vs. WAS: William Karlsson-2 ($7,300 FD, $5,400 DK), Jonathan Marchessault-1 ($7,000 FD, $5,500 DK), Reilly Smith-1 ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) - Karlsson has goals in four straight games, while Smith has a goal and nine assists in his last seven games. Being in first place and coming off a Stanley Cup season, most of the general public thinks Washington should be a strong defensive team, but they are allowing 3.15 goals and 32.3 shots per game, both in the bottom-10 in the league; they are also currently the second-worst defensive team in my rating system (52.4).

MIN1 at VAN: Eric Staal-2 ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK), Mikael Granlund-2 ($7,200 FD, $6,300 DK), Jason Zucker-2 ($5,100 FD, $5,700 DK) - I think this is a spot you can get some under the radar value on Tuesday as Minnesota will likely go underowned on the road, but Vancouver is allowing 3.45 goals per game (sixth-worst in the league). The MIN1 crew has put up seven goals and eight assists over the past five games and all three guys play together on the same power-play unit which is always a bonus.

Also in play: WPG1/2 at NYI, COL1 at PIT, PIT2 vs COL, TOR1/2 at BUF, FLA1 vs BOS

VALUE LINE STACKS

MON2 vs. OTT: Max Domi-1 ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK), Jonathan Drouin-1 ($5,800 FD, $6,200 DK), Andrew Shaw-2 ($3,700 FD, $5,200 DK)
MON1 vs. OTT: Brendan Gallagher-1 ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK), Tomas Tatar-2 ($6,100 FD, $5,700 DK), Phillip Danault-0 ($5,000 FD, $4,200 DK) - Although they have played much better defense of late the numbers say to keep attacking Ottawa, so Montreal is in play for me Tuesday. However, Montreal is one of the more frustrating teams to peg on a nightly basis as they have three solid line options, but typically I look at MON1/MON2 for more power-play exposure. Tomas Tatar has been the better scorer lately, but I would favor MON2 because Domi/Drouin gives you the only even strength and power-play crossover coverage, plus Shaw has been a pretty good value option on FanDuel with a goal and two assists in his last five games.

NYI1 vs. WPG: Anders Lee-1 ($6,500 FD, $5,500 DK), Jordan Eberle-1 ($5,900 FD, $3,700 DK), Brock Nelson-2 ($5,200 FD, $4,700 DK) - Winnipeg has won four of their last five games, but they have not played good defensive hockey during that stretch, allowing 19 goals in the process. The NYI1 line has been playing well with four goals and seven assists over their last five contests, and although they are not an elite unit, they are the best the Islanders have to offer defensively, so I expect them to draw extra ice time Tuesday to slow down some of the Winnipeg offense's weapons.

OTT2 at MON: Mark Stone-2 ($6,700 FD, $6,400 DK), Brady Tkachuk-2 ($4,800 FD, $5,900 DK), Colin White-2 ($4,100 FD, $4,500 DK) - Both of the top Ottawa lines are in play tonight (OTT1 Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Drake Batherson) but I'm betting on OTT2 drawing more matchups with MON2 (49.3 DR) while MON1 (46.3 DR) attempts to slow down the top Ottawa line. OTT2 has been quiet the last two games, but they still have seven goals and eight assists combined over the last five games. White regained some power-play time in their last game, so while he was a cut candidate in recent games, he may be a strong play Tuesday, but mixing up the line to include Duchene instead is still a good option.

VAN2 vs. MIN: Brock Boeser-1 ($6,400 FD, $5,600 DK), Elias Pettersson-1 ($5,600 FD, $5,300 DK), Markus Granlund-2 ($4,000 FD, $2,900 DK) - The Elias Pettersson assault on the Calder Trophy has subsided a bit, but I think this is a great spot for VAN2 on Tuesday as Minnesota has struggled on defense in recent weeks (32 goals, 3-6-0 record in last nine games) mainly due to the poor play from goaltender Devan Dubnyk. Brock Boeser has had a few games to get his feet back under him following the groin injury that cost him 13 games, plus a line shift that brings a more talented goal scorer in Markus Granlund onto the line grouping makes VAN2 a nice value target on Tuesday.

Also in play: DET1/2 vs TB, OTT1 at MON, VGK2 vs WAS

Solo Forward Options

Mark Scheifele-1 WPG1 at NYI ($8,600 FD, $7,300 DK) - Scheifele is coming off a week where he scored five goals and chipped in three helpers in four games, so while WPG1 is definitely in play as a group, consider Scheifele as a solo option if you have some play in your roster.

Patrik Laine-1 WPG2 at NYI ($8,700 FD, $7,800 DK) - Laine has been quiet the last two games, but his scoring comes in bunches when they come, as he has four multi-goal games already this year. Pairing Laine with Scheifele would give you an interesting mix of the top two Winnipeg lines and a strong power-play combination.

Jonathan Huberdeau-1 FLA1 vs. BOS ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK) – Huberdeau has been on a tear of late with two goals and nine assists in his past five games. Boston has not been the same defensively after losing Patrice Bergeron, plus Florida gets to attack the lesser defensive lines coming out of stoppages because they are at home Tuesday.

Max Pacioretty-1 VGK2 vs. WAS ($6,600 FD, $5,300 DK) / Alex Tuch-1 VGK2 vs. WAS ($5,400 FD, $6,000 DK) - As I mentioned above, Washington is not a good defensive team so Vegas should be in a good spot here. The entire VGK2 line is in play Tuesday, but if you need a solo option at wing, I would look at Pacioretty on DraftKings and Tuch on FanDuel for value.

Jake DeBrusk-1 BOS2 at FLA ($4,900 FD, $4,300 DK) - DeBrusk finds himself in a good spot playing with David Krejci at even strength and with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Torey Krug on the power play; a game against the defense-lacking Panthers helps a lot too.

Colin Wilson-1 COL2 at PIT ($4,200 FD, $3,100 DK) - Wilson is far from a world beater, but he offers great value as a piece on the top Colorado power play where he gets to play with MacKinnon and crew.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi-1 MON3 vs. OTT ($3,400 FD, $3,500 DK) - The production hasn't really been there of late (scoreless in five games), but a spot on the top power-play unit and a home matchup against the Ottawa defense makes Kotkaniemi a good punt play option Tuesday.

Defensemen

Shea Weber-1 MON vs. OTT ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK) - Keep plugging Weber into your lineups until his price gets up into the high $6,000s because he's on his way back to that range shortly after two goals, an assist, 11 shots and three blocks in his first three games back from injury. Oh yeah, he faces Ottawa at home Tuesday as well.

Alexander Edler-1 VAN vs. MIN ($5,000 FD, $5,300 DK) - With a goal, an assist, 12 shots and seven blocks in his first four games back after missing a month due to a knee injury, Edler is a box score stat stuffer who has a good home matchup with Minnesota on Tuesday.

Ryan Suter-2 MIN at VAN ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK) - Suter has started to turn it back on with five assists over his last five games and he offers a nice power-play correlation with your MIN1 stacks.

Josh Morrissey-1 WPG at NYI ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK) - Jacob Trouba is also an option Tuesday, but for the savings and with the top power-play spot, I'm gonna keep using Morrissey until Dustin Byfuglien returns from injury.

Erik Cernak-0 TB at DET ($3,500 FD, $3,300 DK) - Cernak is not going put up a goal or multiple assists in the overwhelming majority of his games, but he does over a nice floor of shots and blocks for a low price tag in a great offense.

Also in play: Thomas Chabot-1 OTT at MON ($5,700 FD, $6,600 DK), Jacob Trouba-2 WPG at NYI ($4,800 FD, $5,100 DK), Ryan McDonagh-0 TB at DET ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK), Jakob Chychrun-1 ARI at LA ($3,500 FD, $4,000 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen, TOR at BUF ($9,300 FD, $8,400 DK) - Buffalo is on the second game of a back-to-back and playing their fourth game in six nights, it should be a welcome return home but it will likely come with a crash that should benefit Andersen. The bookmakers agree as Toronto is currently the biggest betting favorite on the schedule Tuesday.

Adin Hill, ARI at LA ($7,400 FD, $7,600 DK) - With one goal allowed in 139 minutes of ice time (0.43 GAA), 59 saves in 60 shots (.983 SV%) and three straight wins, Hill has been downright dominant in two-plus games since taking over for oft-injured starting goalie Antti Raanta. The matchup against the Kings is a favorable spot for Hill on Tuesday, as the Kings are currently second-to-last in the league in shot attempts (27.9) and last in goals per game (2.11).

Jonathan Quick, LA vs. ARI ($7,700 FD, $7,300 DK) - Quick is coming off a monster 34-save shutout against Carolina on Sunday, so if you are not interested in Hill, Quick might be your answer at home against the Coyotes.

Edward Pasquale, TB at DET ($7,200 FD, $7,800 DK) - Pasquale is in line to make his NHL debut Tuesday night in Detroit and with the offensive support the Lightning should offer, he is in a great spot to get his first career win. Pasquale had a 2.98 GAA and .900 SV% in nine AHL games this year, but was better last season with a 2.19 GAA and .923 SV%, so there is some potential value here on FanDuel at a rock bottom price, I would pass on DraftKings.

Also in play: None