Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.5). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.7 (TOR) to a worst of 45.1 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 43.6 (NSH) to a worst of 58.4 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 51.81(NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, December 18, 2018

The Main Slate on Tuesday has a big 11-game slate and FanDuel is running their monthly "Super Crossbar" $7 entry fee tournament with a $45,000 prize pool. There are not many marquee games on the slate and many of the better fantasy options are on the road -- there will be some interesting roster formations in the big tournaments.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.
Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

BUF1 vs. FLA: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($7,200 FD, $7,000 DK), Sam Reinhart-1 ($5,900 FD, $6,100 DK) - I will be all-in on BUF1 until they start to slow down, but Eichel is just a machine right now with Skinner and Reinhart along for the ride. This line has totaled 31 points in their last seven games (15 goals, 16 assists) and draw a Florida team that is struggling to overcome injuries losing four of five and allowing 23 goals over that stretch.

TB2 at VAN: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($8,800 FD, $7,900 DK), Brayden Point-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,900 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) - While Steven Stamkos has been the hottest player on the Lightning (eight goals, five assists in December), on the road I am leaning towards TB2 as the better option at Vancouver. While the Canucks have played better of late, actually moving into the "better than average" range in my defensive rankings (48.9), they have done this while facing the likes of a one-dimensional Edmonton team, a mess of a Philadelphia franchise, a Jekyll and Hyde St. Louis group, and two games against a injury-riddled Nashville squad -- the Lightning fill all the boxes of a potential Stanley Cup contender and the Canucks will have their hands full Tuesday against Kucherov, Point and Johnson who have combined for 30 points in eight December games.

CGY1 at DAL: Johnny Gaudreau-1 ($8,300 FD, $7,600 DK), Sean Monahan-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,300 DK), Elias Lindholm-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK) - Dallas has lost four in a row while allowing 19 goals, this was a four-game road trip that did not go well for the Stars and they are returning home Tuesday, but Calgary is an able team that can score anywhere on any night and Dallas does not have a shut-down line that can shadow CGY1 and they are still missing one of their better defensive players in John Klingberg. If this game was in Calgary, this would be my top line of the night, as this group has scored 39 points (17 goals, 22 assists) in their last eight games which is just an absurd rate of production.

EDM1 vs. STL: Connor McDavid-1 ($9,000 FD, $8,200 DK), Leon Draisaitl-1 ($7,400 FD, $7,100 DK), Alex Chiasson-1 ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK) - If this game was in St. Louis I would probably avoid exposure to EDM1 because Ryan O'Reilly (42.6 DR) would be able to shadow McDavid -- although McDavid likely wouldn't be shut down, O'Reilly is feisty enough to cause some damage to the flow of the Edmonton game. But with the game in Edmonton, the Oilers will get the last line change on stoppages, so they will be able to maximize time away from O'Reilly and STL1. McDavid (six goals, nine assists in eight games), Draisaitl (three goals, 11 assists in nine games) and Chiasson (four goals, two assists in nine games) have been very productive in December.

Also in play: TB1 at VAN, PHI2 vs DET, MIN1 vs SJ, WPG1/2 at LA

VALUE LINE STACKS

NYR2 vs. ANH: Chris Kreider-1 ($6,300 FD, $5,200 DK), Kevin Hayes-1 ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK), Pavel Buchnevich-2 ($4,700 FD, $4,100 DK) - Anaheim played last night in Pittsburgh and is traveling on the back-to-back to face the Rangers. Although the Ducks beat Pittsburgh, that was with a fresh John Gibson who may be forced to play again Tuesday with the injury to backup Ryan Miller. With a tired Gibson in net, I am looking for some exposure to the Rangers and I'm looking to the best player on the team in Hayes (three goals, six assists in six December games). Hayes and the NYR2 line should draw extra ice time Tuesday to shut down the ANH1 line as Hayes is easily the best defensive player the Rangers have (43.1 DR, Kreider is the next best top-six forward at 48.6). This is a three-wing line on FanDuel, and it can be very valuable if you want to pair with a Stamkos/Point or Matthews/Tavares type of stack.

DET1 at PHI: Dylan Larkin-1 ($6,700 FD, $6,000 DK), Gustav Nyquist-1 ($6,300 FD, $5,800 DK), Justin Abdelkader-0 ($4,300 FD, $3,300 DK) - The Flyers have reached the point of desperation at the goaltender position that they are calling up top prospect Carter Hart even though the 20-year old has had a pedestrian year (3.01 GAA, .901 SV%) in his first AHL season. Hart has a great pedigree, but this is at least a year earlier than the Flyers would have probably hoped he'd be starting in Philadelphia. Enter the Red Wings on Tuesday, while Justin Abdelkader can likely be cut from this line, the Dylan Larkin and Gustav Nyquist pair has been hot in December with 11 goals and 12 assists between them in nine games.

LA1 vs. WPG: Anze Kopitar-1 ($6,600 FD, $5,100 DK), Dustin Brown-1 ($5,600 FD, $4,500 DK), Alex Iafallo-1 ($4,500 FD, $3,800 DK) - The Kings have been the worst offense in the NHL this year and no other team is really even close to them statistically at the bottom of the charts (2.18 goals per game, second-worst Arizona has 2.50), but sometimes you have to look past the numbers to get different in order to win DFS tournaments and I think this is one of the sneakiest lines on the slate Tuesday. Kopitar (one goal, three assists), Brown (one goal, three assists) and Iafallo (one goal, four assists) have not be awful in eight December games, but those are not numbers that you want to target for DFS plays -- where their value lies Tuesday is in the fact that this line could see upwards of 25 minutes of ice time as Kopitar (42.5 DR) and Brown (43.1 DR) are not just the Kings' best defensive players, they are two of the best in the league and will be tasked with slowing down the massive offensive threats that Winnipeg offers. This extra ice time will lead to extra offensive opportunities and I think this line produces multiple points Tuesday.

Also in play: TOR2 at NJ, MIN2 vs SJ, ANH1 at NYR

Solo Forward Options

Steven Stamkos-1 TB1 at VAN ($8,100 FD, $7,200 DK) - TB1 is in play Tuesday, but Stamkos is the clear class of the line and can be used as a strong solo option with or without pieces of the TB2 line suggested above.

Matthew Tkachuk-1 CGY2 at DAL ($6,400 FD, $6,700 DK) - Tkachuk is one of the more talented youngsters in the league (15 goals, 25 assists in 34 games) and he gains great exposure to the big Calgary line through his spot on the top power play. Linemate Mikael Backlund is returning Tuesday from a week-long injury and should provide a boost in even-strength situations.

Frans Nielsen-1 DET2 at PHI ($4,600 FD, $4,000 DK) - Nielsen has recorded five goals in nine December games and draws one of the better matchups on the board Tuesday; with a sub-$5,000 price tag on both sites he offers some good value where you need a one-off cap-saving option at center.

Ondrej Kase-2 ANH1 at NYR ($4,600 FD, $5,400 DK) - Kase is an elite value on FanDuel and is going to be a $6,000 player in the near future if he keeps playing at his current pace (six goals, four assists, 27 shots in seven December games).

Denis Gurianov-0 DAL1 vs. CGY ($3,000 FD, $2,900 DK) - Gurianov entered the year as a bottom end Top-10 prospect in the Stars' pipeline, but 28 points in 23 games in the AHL earned him a callup and he has recorded a goal and an assist in his first three games with the big club. A spot alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn should help make Gurianov one of the best punt options on the slate Tuesday.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward)

Mark Giordano-1 CGY at DAL ($6,500 FD, $6,800 DK) - A very hard player to fit in with the CGY1 stacks, but if it can be done with other pieces you like, enjoy the exposure to a defenseman who averages more a point per game (six goals, 29 assists in 32 games).

Rasmus Dahlin-1 BUF vs. FLA ($4,600 FD, $4,600 DK) - It still befuddles me how there are two Rasmus's in the NHL and they are both play the same position on the same team. Dahlin has turned it on in recent games with five points (one goal) and 21 shots over seven games in December -- his ratings in my system are amazing for a rookie blueliner (50.3 OR, 46.0 DR). Buffalo just updated their lines to include both Rasmus's on the top power-play unit, which is a nice boost to Dahlin's expected value.
Jared Spurgeon-1 MIN vs. SJ ($4,600 FD, $5,000 DK) - Spurgeon was already one of my favorite plays when Minnesota was on the slate nightly, but with Mathew Dumba expected to miss at least a week with an upper body injury, Spurgeon slides into some extra ice time with a top defensive pairing alongside Ryan Suter. Suter will likely pick up some extra ice time as well, but Spurgeon gets the bigger boost from his previous spot.

Darnell Nurse-1 EDM vs. STL ($4,000 FD, $5,700 DK) - Nurse was quiet in his last game but the price on FanDuel is still criminal. DraftKings may be a little too much to dive in here, but for $4,000 he is almost a must play in any cash lineup on FanDuel and offers a great cap-saving option for tournament lineups.

Drew Doughty-1 LA vs. WPG ($5,600 FD, $4,200 DK) - Like the reasoning behind my love for the LA1 forward line, I think that Doughy (40.2 DR) could draw upwards of 30 minutes of ice time on Tuesday, offering many opportunities for fantasy points. Extreme value on DraftKings.

Dennis Cholowski-1 DET at PHI ($3,700 FD, $4,400 DK) - Cholowski has not provided much production in recent weeks, but he is talented enough to be a nightly threat to score and makes for a great pairing with DET1 to gain extra power-play exposure.

Also in play: Victor Hedman-1 TB at VAN ($6,200 FD, $5,600 DK), Ryan Suter-1 MIN vs. SJ ($5,100 FD, $5,400 DK), Noah Hanifin-2 CGY at DAL ($4,000 FD, $3,500 DK), Brady Skjei-0 NYR vs. ANH ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen TOR at NJ ($9,100 FD, $8,100 DK) - New Jersey has one good offensive line with Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri and Nico Hischier producing eight goals and nine assists over the last seven games (Hall missed the last two games but is returning Tuesday), however the majority of that production was focused in two games against the Kings and Ducks (five goals, five assists). Toronto has maintained one of the worst defensive rankings (50.7 DR) in my system all season, but this has actually benefited Andersen in fantasy-point scoring as he faces more shots than the average goalie -- his situation has been much like John Gibson's in Anaheim, except that Toronto provides many more opportunities for wins because they can score offensively and they have a good matchup against a bad defensive team in New Jersey on Tuesday.

Carter Hutton BUF vs. FLA ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK) - Florida is averaging two goals per game over their last four road games (all losses) and has not been a good hockey team following the injury to Vincent Trochek (one regulation win in their last 13 games). Hutton has played well recently with a 2.39 GAA and .923 SV% over his past seven games, which includes a five-goal loss at Tampa. I love Buffalo's offensive matchup in this game, but Hutton should be in a great spot on the defensive end as well.

Cam Talbot EDM vs. STL ($7,600 FD, $8,100 DK) - Which St. Louis team shows up on Tuesday, the one who shutout Winnipeg 1-0 on the road, or the one who lost 6-1 to Vancouver at home? Over the past ten games St. Louis has scored 25 goals and allowed 42, so I like the spot here for Talbot who was under siege facing 40 shots at Winnipeg last Thursday, but had played well in three previous games going 2-1 with a 2.29 GAA and .925 SV%; he is also 6-3-1 in his career against St. Louis.

David Rittich CGY at DAL ($7,500 FD, $7,700 DK) - There are not a lot of good cheap goalie options Tuesday and this is not a play for the faint of heart, but there is some good upside here as Dallas has struggled to score in recent weeks (27 goals in last 10 games), however, eight of those 10 games were on the road. Rittich has a 2.47 GAA and .921 SV% over his last six starts.

Also in play: Andrei Vasilevskiy TB at VAN ($8,700 FD, $8,400 DK), Connor Hellebuyck WPG at LA ($8,600 FD, $7,900 DK)

GPP Punts: Alexandar Georgiev NYR vs. ANH ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK), Cam Ward CHI vs. NSH ($7,300 FD, $7,000 DK)