Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC 322 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a UFC 322 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
Jack Della Maddalena (18-2-0) v. Islam Makhachev (27-1-0)
DK Salaries: Della Maddalena ($7,000), Makhachev ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Della Maddalena (+215), Makhacev (-265)
Della Maddalena lost his first two professional fights. He's won 18 in a row since, including his first eight with the UFC, and is without a setback dating back to mid 2016. He won the 170-pound title in a dominant unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad this past May. I gave him little chance in that fight, thinking the elite wrestling and constant pressure of Muhammad would eventually break him down. It never happened. Unfortunately for JDM, his first title defense is about as tough as it gets, and he could very easily be one-and-done.
Makhachev enters having won 15 straight. He has one loss in 16 UFC bouts, a flash knockout against Adriano Martins back in October 2015. He won the UFC Lightweight Championship in October 2022 and then broke the company record for most successful title defenses in the history of the division at four. He has victories over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker and Arman Tsarukyan. There's a case to be made that Islam is the No.1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. The lone concern here is that he's moving up to a weight class in which he's never competed.
The real question here is how does JDM go about generating consistent offense? He's bigger than Islam, but not by much. Jack will enter with an inch edge in height and three inches in reach.
Della Maddalena has proven to be a high-volume striker in the past, and that's probably going to be his greatest advantage here. He landed 178 significant strikes against Muhammad and 105 in a three-round split decision win over Kevin Holland. He lands 6.84 significant strikes per minute on average, compared to 2.63 from Islam. Of course, all this is moot if Jack isn't able to remain upright.
As is typically the case, Islam's grappling game figures to be the difference-maker. His 3.2 takedowns landed per 15 minutes isn't an over-the-top number, but he's so heavy and dominant from top position that you simply aren't getting up if he's on top of you, higher weight class or not.
Jack has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He's at 69 percent overall, about average, but he allowed three to Muhammad and seven to Gilbert Burns in the fight before that. He's going to hit the mat here sooner or later.
Like Khabib Nurmagomedov in his storied career, I'm of the belief the only way to defeat a guy like Islam is either via an immediate one-punch knockout, or by landing one huge blow that sets in motion the circumstances that leads to the stoppage.
I have respect for Della Maddalena. He's better than I originally envisioned, and I do expect him to be competitive here -- probably more competitive than most -- but this is a huge ask.
My guess is Islam largely negates the striking game of JDM, if not by getting takedowns, then by racking up control time along the fence, winning a decision in the process. Again, the lone concern is the fact he's moving up a division, but this move has been planned for quite a while, and Makhachev was a huge lightweight. Guys like this at the very top of the overall food chain don't let things like that bother them.
UFC 322 PICK: Makhachev
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Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight Championship
(C) Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1) v. Zhang Weili (26-3-0)
DK Salaries: Shevchenko ($8,200), Zhang ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Shevchenko (-130), Zhang (+110)
Like this main event, this title fight also features the challenger -- Zhang -- moving up, in this case, from 115 pounds to 125 pounds, in search of becoming a two-division champion.
We'll start with the champion, however. Shevchenko is 11-1-1 in her past 13 fights dating back to February 2018. This will be her 13th straight title fight. Valentina will be 38 years old in March. She still shows well most of the time, but she's nowhere near as dominant as she was at her best when she could simply overwhelm her opposition with physicality. She had two extremely competitive fights against Alexa Grasso back in 2023, losing her title in the first before the two fought to a split draw in the second. Shevchenko hammered Grasso in the trilogy bout to get her belt back before barely getting by Manon Fiorot in her last title defense in May.
Outside of a pair of back-to-back losses to Rose Namajunas in 2021, Zhang has been untouchable at 115 pounds. She won the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship twice and successfully defended the title four times across her two reigns. The top of that division has traditionally been quite weak, but Zhang was viewed by many as the underdog for her most recent defense against Tatiana Suarez in February and she dominated that fight from bell-to-bell. She's ready for this challenge.
Valentina is a former professional kickboxer and Muay Thai champion, but the base of her success with the UFC has been her wrestling game. She's landed multiple takedowns in nine straight fights and at least three in eight of those. Fiorot held up the best during that stretch, stuffing seven of the nine attempts and racking up 7:07 worth of control time of her own. The main difference between Fiorot and Zhang is that the former is much, much bigger. I don't think Zhang will be able to move as freely should Shevchenko pin her down.
Zhang can match, if not exceed, Valentina's volume on the feet. She's landed 100-plus significant strikes on three different occasions, while Shevchenko has never topped that number even once. I think she can outwork Valentina on the feet should she be able to remain upright. In many aspects, it's similar to the game plan Della Maddalena will have to employ against Islam. The difference is that Zhang has some grappling of her own she should be able to employ to help keep Shevchenko off balance.
I view this as a straight pick 'em, which is essentially what the line is. The fact I have very few underdogs on this card I like outright tilts me in Zhang's direction, albeit without much confidence. I could see this one ending in a variety of different matters.
UFC 322 PICK: Zhang
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Welterweight
Sean Brady (18-1-0) v. Michael Morales (18-0-0)
DK Salaries: Brady ($8,500), Morales ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Brady (-140), Morales (+120)
I don't think it's a coincidence that this bout is on the same card as the welterweight title fight, and I expect the winner, especially if it's in impressive fashion, to be next in line for a shot at the gold.
Brady will be 33 years old about a week after this event takes place. He's 8-1 in nine UFC bouts, with the one setback coming against Belal Muhammad via knockout, which felt like a fluke then and still feels like one now, because Belal doesn't knock out anyone. To Brady's credit, he's responded strong, winning three straight since including an epic beatdown of Leon Edwards in enemy territory in London in March.
By and large, the UFC has taken things slowly with the 26-year-old Morales. He's a perfect 6-0 with the company, including four wins via knockout. The company has recently started to push him a bit, with Morales' last two wins coming against Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny, both highly-respected veterans that are clearly on the back-nine their respective careers. This fight against Brady is a significant step up in competition no matter how you slice it.
Brady isn't an elite wrestler in terms of technical skill, but the results are top notch. In his last three fights he landed five takedowns against Edwards, seven against Burns, and five against Kelvin Gastelum. He works from top position and is very difficult to move. He lands a whopping 54 percent of his attempts and his gas tank is strong.
Morales can wrestle in a pinch, and his takedown defense is excellent (89 percent), but he's going to want to keep this fight standing in hopes his power is the difference. Morales will enter with a two-inch edge in height and whopping seven-inch edge in reach. He's extremely explosive, particularly in short spurts, and does a nice job of not eating many big blows considering how aggressive he tends to be in the stand-up.
I think the most likely scenario is that Brady gets his wrestling going enough to win two of the three rounds and take a decision, but I'm going in the opposite direction.
Morales is a brilliant athlete, and I think the edge in the stand-up is significant. He has more ways to win, and I want to be holding that plus-money ticket in a fight that can go either way.
UFC 322 PICK: Morales
Welterweight
Leon Edwards (22-5-0, 1NC) v. Carlos Prates (22-7-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($7,300), Prates ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (+165), Prates (-200)
A former UFC Welterweight Champion, Edwards went 12-0 (1NC) during a 13-fight stretch from May 2016 to December 2023. He dropped his title to Belal Muhammad in a lopsided affair in July 2024 and was even less competitive in a submission loss to Sean Brady in March. Edwards turned 34 years of age in August, and it would be far from surprising if these recent struggles were simply the result of normal aging and a decrease in athleticism. Leon has never been the most versatile guy from an offensive standpoint.
Prates won each of his first four UFC bouts via knockout, in addition to a KO win on Dana White's Contender Series. He was then elevated to a main event spot against Ian Garry in April and largely looked overwhelmed by the moment. To his credit, he got right back in the win column by destroying Geoff Neal with a spinning elbow with a second left in Round 1 in August.
At 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach, Edwards has always been one of the bigger welterweights on the roster. He's a strong technical boxer and he fights long. He can be low volume at times from a striking standpoint, but he's shown the ability to up his output when necessary. He's wrestled more in recent years than ever before, but I still have little faith in his ability to grapple much in a key spot.
Prates is an inch shorter than Edwards, but he's going to enter with a four-inch edge in reach. I typically don't place a ton of stock in such numbers, but that's going to be a big deal if this fight plays out like many expect.
For the record, Prates is not the type of fighter I typically like to back. Yes, the power is entirely legitimate, as we've seen to date. But a deeper dive reveals concerns. For starters, he gets hit (4.8 significant strikes per minute) way more than he lands (3.82 significant strikes per minute). He also has no grappling to speak of. Because he's low volume, Prates' win condition, especially against better competition, is knockout-or-bust.
For what it's worth, Leon has had no durability issues in the past, having never been knocked out in 28 professional fights. We've seen him absorb a ton of damage in the past and keep in ticking.
The value side here is definitely Edwards but I can't help but think he's totally shot, at least against high-level competition. This seems like a particularly bad matchup because if he doesn't get his wrestling going, Prates is going to have a monumental edge in terms of power. I need to see one more strong performance against a quality opponent before buying back in.
UFC 322 PICK: Prates
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (23-6-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (15-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dariush ($7,400), Saint-Denis ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+165), Saint-Denis (-200)
Dariush returned in June after more than a year-and-a-half on the sidelines and took a unanimous decision from Renato Moicano. It was a massive result considering he turned 36 years of age in May and entered having lost back-to-back fights via knockout, granted against Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. Dariush has been one of the most underrated guys in the sport for a long time, but given his age and inactivity of late, I'm pretty sure we've already seen the best he has to offer inside the octagon.
Saint-Denis found himself in a similar spot not all that long ago. He lost back-to-back fights via knockout to Moicano and Dustin Poirier last year. He got back on track this past May with a layup win over a late-notice opponent in Kyle Prepolec before shocking many by completely outclassing and submitting rising star Mauricio Ruffy in his native France in September. This is a quick turnaround, but BSD absorbed zero damage in the Ruffy bout, so he should be good to go.
Dariush is very much a generalist. He has no weaknesses, but he's also by no means an explosive athlete, and he's a notorious slow starter. It typically takes him a round or so to get going, and when you're only fighting for 15 minutes, that can be tough to overcome at times. He was able to get past Moicano on the strength of five successful takedowns.
Saint-Denis has developed a reputation an elite cardio guy and excellent wrestler. He gassed out badly in the Poirier loss, but he was apparently dealing with a staph infection that night. The Ruffy fight was a perfect example of what to expect when he's on his game. That being constant pressure and the ability to smother his opposition.
I am curious if BSD's aggressive, in-your-face style will force Dariush out of his comfort zone. He's not going to stand a chance here if he sits back early on and tries to settle in. Saint-Denis simply will not allow that to happen. And while Beneil can likely come close to match Benoit in terms of pure grappling, I'll always take the guy that is trying to push the pace and lead the dance.
UFC 322 PICK: Saint-Denis
OTHER BOUTS
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (7-1-0) v. Rodolfo Vieira (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nickal ($9,100), Vieira ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Nickal (-220), Vieira (+180)
UFC 322 PICK: Nickal
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (14-4-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Kopylov ($7,600), Rodrigues ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Kopylov (+140), Rodrigues (-165)
UFC 322 PICK: Rodrigues
Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) v. Tracy Cortez (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Blanchfield ($9,000), Cortez ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Blanchfield (-245), Cortez (+200)
UFC 322 PICK: Blanchfield
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0-0) v. Cody Haddon (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Wellmaker ($8,400), Haddon ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Wellmaker (-155), Haddon (+130)
UFC 322 PICK: Haddon
Middleweight
Kyle Daukaus (16-4-0, 1NC) v. Gerald Meerschaert (37-20-0)
DK Salaries: Daukaus ($9,300), Meerschaert ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Daukaus (-380), Meerschaert (+300)
UFC 322 PICK: Daukaus
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (20-5-0) v. Jose Mariscal (18-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Sabatini ($8,300), Mariscal ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Sabatini (-140), Marsical (+120)
UFC 322 PICK: Sabatini
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill (18-15-0) v. Fatima Kline (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hill ($6,700), Kline ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Hill (+360), Kline (-470)
UFC 322 PICK: Kline
Middleweight
Baisangur Susurkaev (10-0-0) v. Eric McConico (10-3-1)
DK Salaries: Susurkaev ($9,800), McConico ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Susurkaev (-850), McConico (+575)
UFC 322 PICK: Susurkaev
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
