This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 293 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Kevin Jousset (8-2-0) v. Kiefer Crosbie (10-3-0)
Kevin Jousset - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Kiefer Crosbie - Height: 6'0" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: The night's first fight is between two debuting fighters with little statistical data. This is a pure GPP fight, as it could go either way. Jousset looks to be a little more consistent, but Crosbie appears to be more dangerous. I will go with the dog, as he likely scores higher in a win.
UFC 293 Pick: Crosbie
Shane Young (13-7-0) v. Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0)
Shane Young - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Gabriel Miranda - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a grappler vs. striker fight, with Young having a slight advantage on the feet and Miranda having a significant edge on the mat. Young has lost three consecutive in the UFC and has not looked great in any of them. Miranda will take this fight to the mat and submit Young early.
UFC 293 Pick: Miranda
Blood Diamond (3-2-0) v. Charlie Radtke (7-3-0)
Blood Diamond - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 3 wins
Charlie Radtke - Height: 5'10" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Diamond is now 35 and has lost both of his UFC fights. After running four straight in the CFFC promotion, Radtke is making his UFC debut. I expect him to be better everywhere and add to the streak of losses Diamond already has. Radtke will likely be one of the higher-owned fighters, as he likely ends this within the first two rounds.
UFC 293 Pick: Radtke
Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0) v. Landon Quinones (7-1-1)
Nasrat Haqparast - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
Landon Quinones - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Quinones is making his UFC debut after a successful debut in the Titan promotion and a loss off of The Ultimate Fighter. He is a strong striker, but it going up against someone far more experienced. Haqparast is known for being technical and defensive. While he should easily win this fight, he does not score well for DFS purposes.
UFC 293 Pick: Haqparast
Jamie Mullarkey (16-6-0) v. John Makdessi (18-8-0)
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
John Makdessi - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are coming in off tough losses and will be looking to right the ship. Mullarkey was up in the fight until getting knocked out midway through the second. He will sport a considerable edge on the mat in this one. Makdessi's striking has looked great in his last few fights, and he will have the advantage there against Mullarkey. If Mullarkey's chin holds, I expect him to win a close fight. A finish likely yields solid value for DFS, while a decision may not make the optimal.
UFC 293 Pick: Mullarkey
Jack Jenkins (12-2-0) v. Jose Mariscal (14-6-0)
Jack Jenkins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Jose Mariscal - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a potential fight-of-the-night candidate. Jenkins will have an edge on the feet, particularly with his dangerous leg kicks, while Mariscal will have an advantage on the mat and likely in toughness. Jenkins has been impressive in both of his UFC wins, but I expect Mariscal to be the better overall fighter and take this.
UFC 293 Pick: Mariscal
Carlos Ulberg (8-1-0) v. Da Woon Jung (15-4-1)
Carlos Ulberg - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Da Woon Jung - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an excellent fight to target for GPP. Both fighters have tremendous power and fight at a high pace. Ulberg has been more impressive and has a slightly better chin. A knockout and high score is likely.
UFC 293 Pick: Ulberg
Tyson Pedro (9-4-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-2-0)
Tyson Pedro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Anton Turkalj - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another solid fight to target for GPP contests. Pedro has one-punch power and could end this at any time. Turkalj will have a considerable edge on the mat and could accrue the most value on the slate by chaining takedowns or finishing this early. Given Pedro's lack of takedown defense, I will side with Turkalj.
UFC 293 Pick: Turkalj
Justin Tafa (6-3-0) v. Austen Lane (12-3-0)
Justin Tafa - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Austen Lane - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: (This is a rematch, as the first ended in a no-contest from an eye poke.) Lane has not fought the level of competition that Tafa has, but Tafa's UFC wins are all lower-level UFC fighters, giving Lane an excellent chance to win this debut. He sports a considerable reach advantage and has dangerous forward pressure. Tafa will find pressuring difficult and will likely look to counter with his power. Someone is going down early in this fight and will make an excellent pick for DFS.
UFC 293 Pick: Lane
Manel Kape (18-6-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (7-0-0)
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
Felipe dos Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Dos Santos is making his debut and is an exciting prospect. He has a complete game, and I would not be surprised to see him pull off this upset. That said, I expect Kape, who has fought better competition and is slightly better everywhere, to be too much for the newcomer. Kape should be highly owned in cash and GPP contests, given his finishing ability.
UFC 293 Pick: Kape
Tai Tuivasa (15-5-0) v. Alexander Volkov (36-10-0)
Tai Tuivasa - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Alexander Volkov - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 36 wins
DFS Perspective: After five consecutive knockout wins, Tuivasa has lost two straight, getting knocked out himself in each defeat. He is a threat in any fight to record an early knockout and crush value. Volkov has rattled off two consecutive wins by first-round knockout and will have a considerable edge in size and speed. One of these guys is likely going down early, making this an excellent fight to target for GPP contests. Volkov makes a solid play for all contests.
UFC 293 Pick: Volkov
Israel Adesanya (24-2-0) v. Sean Strickland (27-5-0)
Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 24 wins
Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 27 wins
DFS Perspective: Adesanya will be on a mission to shut Strickland down. He will have the edge in striking, particularly from range. Strickland throws more volume, but getting into range will likely be difficult. He would have an edge if he can take Adesanya down. Adesanya tends to fight defensively and precisely, so his DFS score likely will not hit value. Strickland is best used for GPP; if he wins, he will shatter value.
UFC 293 Pick: Adesanya
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 293 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
