This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 81 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Ashley Yoder (8-8-0) v. Emily Ducote (12-8-0)
Ashley Yoder - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Emily Ducote - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Missing wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Yoder has lost four of her last five and relies primarily on her submission game. Ducote has impressed in her three UFC fights but has still lost two in a row against tough competition. This feels like a get-right spot for her. However, unless something drastic happens or she records an early finish, she will likely win with a lower score for DFS. Still, she is as safe as it gets regarding cash plays.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Ducote
Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2) v. Heili Alateng (16-8-2)
Chris Gutierrez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Heili Alateng - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Gutierrez has gone 7-1-1 in his last nine fights, and this feels like another fight he should win. He will have a considerable edge on the feet and should dominate striking. Alateng has won two in a row, albeit against lower levels of competition. He has some solid power, but his best bet to win this fight would be to record takedowns and attempt to control Gutierrez. However, I think he struggles to strike with Gutierrez and will be unable to level change well. Gutierrez is a solid cash play, but he will not score well without a finish.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Gutierrez
Irina Alekseeva (5-1-0) v. Melissa Dixon (5-0-0)
Irina Alekseeva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
Melissa Dixon - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Alekseeva surprised with an impressive kneebar in the first round of her debut. She comes out hot and will be pushing a high tempo in the first round. After that, her cardio tends to fall off. Dixon is making her UFC debut after a successful run of five fights in other promotions, including three knockouts. This will be an excellent fight to target for DFS, as both ladies are primed to score well in a win. There are paths for both women, but I will side with the slightly more experienced dog.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Alekseeva
Terrance McKinney (14-6-0) v. Brendon Marotte (8-1-0)
Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
Brendon Marotte - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: McKinney got back in the win column with a first-round finish in his most recent bout. He now draws another winnable matchup against the debuting Marotte, who is also fighting on short notice. Marotte has dangerous hands, and if McKinney is not careful, he could find himself out cold. However, I expect McKinney to make quick work of the debuting fighter and finish this early.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: McKinney
Tainara Lisboa (6-2-0) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-1-0)
Tainara Lisboa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Ravena Oliveira - Height: 5'5" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Lisboa impressed in her debut win with a rear-naked choke in Round 3. She will have a considerable edge on the mat and should be looking to get it there early. Oliveira is making her UFC debut after a run of seven wins, all by finish. Due to a lack of higher competition, I would only play Oliveira in GPP contests and hope she records another early finish. I expect Lisboa to quickly get this to the mat and keep control of the debuting fighter.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Lisboa
Darren Elkins (27-11-0) v. TJ Brown (17-10-0)
Darren Elkins - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 27 wins
TJ Brown - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a closely-contested fight and would not be surprised to see a split decision if it makes it to the scorecards. I would give Brown a slight edge everywhere, and he is is more likely to record an early finish, but Elkins is as tough as they come. Brown is the play, but a low score is likely if it goes to the judges.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Brown
Christian Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-0-0)
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Cameron Saaiman - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a compelling fight between two exciting prospects. Rodriguez will have the edge on the mat, while Saaiman will have an advantage on the feet. However, both fighters are competent everywhere. I like the pressure and power that Saaiman puts out and expect him to walk away with another win.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Saaiman
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Daniel Lacerda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: (Rematch from the no contest) Lacerda is getting his fifth fight in the UFC, with the first four ending with him getting finished. He is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and that will continue in this one. Chairez has an excellent chance to give Lacerda his fifth consecutive loss and is one of the best plays on the card, while Lacerda makes a solid GPP dart throw.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Chairez
Michel Pereira (28-11-0) v. Andre Petroski (10-1-0)
Michel Pereira - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 28 wins
Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Petroski is taking this fight on short notice. While he has decent striking, his edge will come from grappling in this fight. Pereira is easily the better striker, and should Petroski choose to strike with him, he will likely get knocked out. However, Petroski's wild striking is powerful and could also find the mark. This is a tough fight to call. Pereira is a good cash play, while Petroski makes an excellent GPP play.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Petroski
Jonathan Martinez (18-4-0) v. Adrian Yanez (16-4-0)
Jonathan Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a pure striking match, as both fighters are excellent on the feet. The fight should be close, but I expect Yanez to get back on track and stick Martinez early. Without a finish, this fight will surely be low-scoring for DFS.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Yanez
Jennifer Maia (21-9-1) v. Viviane Araujo (11-5-0)
Jennifer Maia - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 21 wins
Viviane Araujo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight. Maia will have a clear edge on the feet, while Araujo will have the advantage on the mat. Araujo will get overwhelmed quickly on the feet if she cannot find success with takedowns. Conversely, Maia has shown issues defending takedowns and getting back up. Whoever can exact their game plan should come out with a solid score. I like Araujo to go for takedowns early and keep control.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Araujo
Sodiq Yusuff (13-2-0) v. Edson Barboza (23-11-0)
Sodiq Yusuff - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Edson Barboza - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Yusuff is getting another step up in competition after finding his way to a two-fight win streak after his first UFC loss. Barboza also got back in the win column in his most recent fight, recording a first-round knockout with a nasty knee. Yusuff will have the edge in volume and striking defense, while Barboza will have the advantage in experience and leg kicks. I expect Yusuff to avoid the dangerous leg kicks and outpoint Barboza to a decision win.
UFC Vegas 81 Pick: Yusuff
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 81 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
