This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 88 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Chad Anheliger (12-7-0) v. Charalampos Grigoriou (8-3-0)
Chad Anheliger - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Charalampos Grigoriou - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Anheliger is a low-level fighter who likely should not be in the UFC and will get his walking papers soon. Grigorio is making his UFC debut, and though he may struggle against upper-tier fighters, he should not have issues with Anheliger.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Grigorio
Cory McKenna (8-2-0) v. Jaqueline Amorim (7-1-0)
Cory McKenna - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 58" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Jaqueline Amorim - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight likely comes down to who can successfully record takedowns. Amorim has a 10-inch reach advantage and is likelier to record a finish. However, her takedown defense is weak. McKenna has the better training partners and should find success with her takedowns in this one. If she cannot, she will get pieced up on the feet. I would not expect a high score to come out of this fight.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: McKenna
Josh Culibao (11-2-1) v. Danny Silva (8-1-0)
Josh Culibao - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Danny Silva - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: These two should be locked into a tight striking match. Silva is making his debut but has the volume and footwork to cause all sorts of issues for Culibao. Culibao is tough and will have a slight reach advantage. I expect this to see the scorecards and could potentially score well enough to see the optimal lineup if there is an early finish or a lot of volume.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Silva
Thiago Moises (17-7-0) v. Mitch Ramirez (8-1-0)
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Mitch Ramirez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a get-right spot for Moises. Ramirez is making his debut and has not fought someone of Moises's caliber. Assuming Moises avoids getting knocked out, he should find this to the mat early and potentially submit Ramirez early.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Moises
Ode Osbourne (12-6-0) v. Jafel Filho (15-3-0)
Ode Osbourne - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Jafel Filho - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Osbourne is being dealt an absolute killer, and unless he gets an early knockout, he will likely get finished early. Filho will have a massive edge on the mat, and I expect him to have no issues getting it there and ending this fight early. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate and will be excellent for all contests.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Filho
Josiane Nunes (10-1-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (5-2-0)
Josiane Nunes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Chelsea Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: If we get the version of Chandler that runs away for 15 minutes again, you can expect another boring fight. If she shows up to fight, she can earn a small upset given her size advantage. She will hold the edge on the mat if she takes Nunes down. Nunes does not offer much aside from high-volume striking. This is likely another lower-scoring fight and should only be targeted in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Chandler
Mike Davis (10-2-0) v. Natan Levy (8-1-0)
Mike Davis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Natan Levy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Davis is a better version of Levy everywhere. Levy is tough, so I do not see him getting finished, but Davis should dominate this fight. Given the potential for volume, takedowns and control, Davis makes a solid play for DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Davis
Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) v. Bryan Barberena (18-11-0)
Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 33 finishes in 35 wins
Bryan Barberena - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: If Meerschaert chooses to stand and strike with Barberena, this fight becomes much closer than it should be. If he goes to the mat right away, he can submit Barberena. Barberena is a solid striker but offers little else.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Meerschaert
Pannie Kianzad (16-7-0) v. Macy Chiasson (8-3-0)
Pannie Kianzad - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 16 wins
Macy Chiasson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Kianzad was dominated on the mat in her last fight and unless she fixed that problem during her camp, she will have the same issue in this one. Chiasson would be wise to immediately take this to the mat and exploit Kianzad's apparent weakness from her last fight. Chiasson makes an interesting and likely low-rostered option for DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Chiasson
Christian Rodriguez (10-1-0) v. Isaac Dulgarian (6-0-0)
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Isaac Dulgarian - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Dulgarian flashed with a first-round knockout in his debut, while Rodriguez won his third straight after a unanimous decision. Dulgarian is dangerous, and Rodriguez must tread carefully to avoid making mistakes. I expect this fight to be close and it really could go either way.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Rodriguez
Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0) v. Ovince Saint Preux (26-17-0)
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Ovince Saint Preux - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: Nzechukwu has the most straightforward fight on the slate. St. Preux is nothing more than a punching dummy now and will likely be knocked out for the fourth time in five fights.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Nzechukwu
Bryan Battle (10-2-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-3-0)
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Ange Loosa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a potential Fight of the Night contender. Both guys are fighting on a two-fight win streak and have similar skill sets. Loosa will have the edge in volume, while Battle will have an edge on the mat. The winner of this fight likely scores well for DFS. It would be good to have shares of both of them.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Battle
Tai Tuivasa (15-6-0) v. Marcin Tybura (24-8-0)
Tai Tuivasa - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: If this fight does not end early by knockout, it will likely be a boring decision. If Tybura is able to get Tuivasa down, he will have the edge on the mat. However, Tuivasa is tough to take down and will have plenty of time to get himself back in the win column with an early knockout. I expect Tuivasa to get it done, making him an excellent play for DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 88 Pick: Tuivasa
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
