This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, August 9. In the main event, Thiago Santos takes on Jamahal Hill.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Stephanie Egger (7-2) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1)
The very first fight of the night will be my first bet, as I like Stephanie Egger to get the win as a slight favorite.
Egger has very solid wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and while Silva is also known for her grappling, she has been hit-or-miss throughout her UFC career. She also gasses in fights, so her cardio is a big concern, while Egger has shown she can fight three rounds. I also think Egger is the better wrestler and can use her throws to get on top.
Silva does throw more volume but is also there to be hit, as her striking defense has struggled over her past few fights. Egger, meanwhile, averages 2.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Silva only has a takedown defense of 69 percent. Ultimately, the grappling and wrestling of Egger are why I like her here.
UFC Vegas 59 Bet: Stephanie Egger (-120)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Brogan Walker (7-2) vs. Juliana Miller (2-1)
In the TUF 30 flyweight final, I'm taking Brogan Walker to win as a slight underdog here.
Walker has more experience, and I think that will be a big benefit to her, as her two losses came to Pearl Gonzalez and Erin Blanchfield. She also beat Miranda Maverick in Invicta FC.
Miller, meanwhile, is a very solid grappler and has a weird striking style, but Walker seems like she will have good enough takedown defense to keep it standing and piece up Miller to likely win a decision.
UFC Vegas 59 Bet: Brogan Walker (+100)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Jamahal Hill (10-1) vs. Thiago Santos (22-10)
For my prop, I'm taking Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, as even though Thiago Santos is hard to KO, Hill is special and has an insane amount of power. I'm counting on it to show up here.
In Hill's UFC career, he knocked out Johnny Walker in 2:55, knocked out Jimmy Crute in 0:48 and finished out Ovince Saint Preux in the second round. Santos is durable, but he has been dropped and rocked in recent fights, as his durability seems to be going.
Hill lands an insane 7.06 significant strikes per minute, while Santos absorbs 2.37. I expect Hill's striking volume to be a big difference-maker. The up-and-comer also is super fast and will eventually catch Santos to get the KO.
UFC Vegas 59 Bet: Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Zac Pauga (5-0) vs. Mohammed Usman (7-2)
Sergey Spivac (14-3) vs. Augusto Sakai (15-4-1)
In my parlay, I'm taking two heavyweights, as I like Zac Pauga to remain undefeated and become the newest Ultimate Fighter, while I also like Sergey Spivac to beat Augusto Sakai.
Pauga is a light heavyweight, but he still is a solid prospect, as he has some decent power and is a good wrestler. He also has great cardio, which will be the key here, as Usman has struggled to go three rounds. He gassed out badly in his last pro fight -- before TUF -- as he suffered a second-round submission loss to Brandon Sayles in the PFL, which was a set-up fight for him.
Pauga should be able to piece up Usman on the feet and mix in the takedowns and really wear on Usman to tire him out and either win a decision or get a late stoppage.
On the other leg, I'm taking Sergey Spivac to get past Augusto Sakai, who I've never been high on.
Sakai is on a three-fight losing skid and has been knocked out by Tai Tuivasa, Jair Rozenstruik, and Alistair Overeem, showing his chin has started to go. Although Spivac doesn't have a ton of KO power, he is more of a grinder. He likes to take guys down and look for the ground-and-pound TKO, which I expect to happen here.
UFC Vegas 59 Bet: Zac Pauga & Sergey Spivac (-104)
UFC Vegas 59 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 59 event:
- Stephanie Egger (-120)
- Brogan Walker (+100)
- Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
- Zac Pauga & Sergey Spivac parlay (-104)
