This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC Best Bets: Betting Picks for UFC Mexico City
The UFC is in Mexico on Saturday, March 29 for a solid UFC Mexico City card. The main event sees former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno taking on former flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg.
Below, I'll share my UFC Mexico City predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Christian Rodriguez (12-2) vs Melquizael Costa (22-7)
Christian Rodriguez is taking on Melquizael Costa in an intriguing matchup at featherweight at UFC Mexico City, but I like Rodriguez to get the win.
Rodriguez is coming off an upset win over Austin Bashi after his stunning submission loss to Julian Erosa. Both Rodriguez and Costa are high-level wrestlers and grapplers, but Rodriguez appears to be better on the ground and at keeping positions.
Rodriguez should be able to have success holding Costa down, as he did to Bashi. They are similar on the feet, if not Costa being slightly better, so expect Rodriguez to use his wrestling to control this fight and edge out a decision.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Christian Rodriguez (-155)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) vs Steve Erceg (12-3)
Brandon Moreno takes on Steve Erceg in the main event, and I have to take a shot on Erceg due to the odds here.
Moreno should be favored, but to me, he should be around (-160). So at (-238), it's too high, and worth the chance on Erceg at (+195), as the latter has the tools to win this fight.
Moreno is a boxer who is there to be hit, while Erceg should have the wrestling advantage. Although Erceg's chin is a big question, especially after his last fight, if this fight hits the scorecards, it will be super close and worth the shot on Erceg.
Erceg is also super active on the feet and can land some good shots, and mix that in with his wrestling and clinch, there is a clear path to victory for the underdog.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Steve Erceg (+195)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Joe Pyfer (13-3) vs Kelvin Gastelum (19-9)
For my prop at UFC Mexico City, I'm taking the Joe Pyfer vs Kelvin Gastelum fight to go under 2.5 rounds at +100.
Pyfer is a solid grappler with some KO power, but his cardio is an issue. However, in a three-round fight, he should be able to push the pace against Gastelum. Although Gastelum has one of the best chins in the UFC, his ground game is a work in progress and leaves some openings to be submitted.
Jack Hermansson was able to submit Gastelum in the first round, while Pyfer's teammate, Sean Brady, submitted him early into the third. If Pyfer has a wrestling-heavy game plan, I think he can find the submission here. But, in case of a ground-and-pound TKO or Gastelum finishing Pyfer, taking the under 2.5 rounds at +100 is the better play.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Joe Pyfer-Kelvin Gastelum under 2.5 rounds (+100)
Weight Classes: Strawweight & Bantamweight
Lupita Godinez (12-5) vs Julia Polastri (13-4)
David Martinez (11-1) vs Saimon Oliveira (18-5)
For my parlay at UFC Mexico City, I'm taking a pair of Mexicans to get their hands raised against two Brazilians, as I like Loopy Godinez and David Martinez to win Saturday night.
Godinez is coming off two-straight losses to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba, who are two of the best strawweights in the UFC, and they were close fights. She now takes a step down in competition to face Polastri, who's 1-1 in the UFC. Polastri was able to edge out a win over Cory McKenna for her lone victory, and McKenna isn't even in the UFC anymore.
Godinez will have the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Polastri down at will. On the feet, Polastri is more active, but she is also there to be hit, which will lead to some damaging strikes and allow Godinez to get a clear-cut decision.
To close out the parlay, I like Martinez to beat Saimon Oliveira. Oliveira is someone I don't think is UFC-caliber, as he's 0-2 and hasn't looked particularly effective. Martinez, meanwhile, is a Mexican prospect who looked strong on the Contender Series and on the regional scene.
Martinez is the much better striker and will be able to land damaging shots. He'll likely get Oliveira out of there in the second or third round by TKO.
UFC Mexico City Bet: Lupita Godinez & David Martinez parlay (-127)
UFC Mexico City Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Mexico City best bets:
- Christian Rodriguez (-155)
- Steve Erceg (+195)
- Joe Pyfer-Kelvin Gastelum under 2.5 rounds (+100)
- Lupita Godinez & David Martinez parlay (-127)
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