UFC 313 Picks, Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup

UFC 313 may not be full of consequential fights, but a title bout at light heavyweight and a guaranteed war at lightweight sit atop an intriguing 12-fight slate. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a slick-grappling underdog and the aforementioned title challenger looking to extend an unbeaten streak. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.

UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings

Iasmin Lucindo ($8,500)

Amanda Lemos will have the clear striking advantage here, but the struggles she has had against physically strong grapplers like Jessica Andrade and Virna Jandiroba swings me in the direction of the favorite. While she is agile, Lemos tends to get sloppy with her footwork, which should allow Lucindo to secure takedowns against the fence.

John Castaneda ($8,200)

Fresh off a fight cancelation against Douglas Silva de Andrade, Castaneda gets a matchup against Chris Gutierrez that may be more conducive to a relatively high point total. Gutierrez is a skilled kickboxer, but fights at such a slow pace that his wins are often uninspiring. As a high-output wrestler, "Sexi Mexi" should be able to outwork his opponent and is in a position where 86-90 points could be enough for the optimal lineup.

Rei Tsuruya ($7,400)

Joshua Van has been a nightmare for opponents by standing on a napkin in the center of the cage and forcing them to deal with his offensive barrages, but Tsuruya is light on his feet in a way that previous adversaries have not been, which should help him enter exchanges on his terms. The smothering grappling and transitions on the ground should be difficult for Van to deal with, as he was taken down two times apiece by Cody Durden and Felipe Bunes. 

Magomed Ankalaev ($7,900)

When I picked Ankalaev to be light heavyweight champion at the end of 2025, I stated in the article that a bout between him and Alex Pereira should be lined at close to even. While I will try to avoid repeating myself here, there are only so many ways to say that the Brazilian has never faced this level of grappler, having only scrapped by Jan Blachowicz via split decision in 2023. One element I didn't mention in that write-up is the elite defense possessed by the Dagestani, who has absorbed just 2.4 significant strikes per minute in a whopping 14 UFC fights. This may seem odd to say about a fighter who has been as dominant as Pereira, but I question if he is ready for the challenge in front of him. 

Curtis Blaydes ($9,100)

Nothing seemed particularly exciting about Rizvan Kuniev before I learned that he was suspended in 2023 after testing positive for multiple anabolic steroids. Unlike some of his countrymen, the Dagestani seems to struggle to get takedowns and keeps his hands very low in the pocket. While Blaydes sometimes falls in love with his boxing, that shouldn't be an issue here, as he has enough power to make anyone pay for being irresponsible with their defense.

Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.

Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes

Ozzy Diaz OVER 24.5 Significant Strikes, Rafael Fiziev OVER 80.5 Significant Strikes, and Jalin Turner OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes

We should take a hint from the strike differential between Diaz and his opponent, as Djorden Santos's significant strikes line sits at 44.5. I can't quite account for this discrepancy, as Santos isn't much of a finisher, and Diaz has never been a committed wrestler. Given this, we should see enough time spent in the pocket for Diaz to surpass his total.

Regardless of who wins the rematch between Fiziev and Justin Gaethje, it's likely that we are in for another war at range, as both men have been incredibly difficult to finish and throw with incredible volume. There may be a bit of a worry that "The Highlight" was put to sleep at the buzzer in his last fight with Max Holloway, but he has had almost a year to recover, which should be enough time for a return to top form.

A similar dynamic exists in our next bout, as Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes love to stand and trade. This line suggests a knockout is forthcoming, but Turner hasn't been knocked out standing since 2018 and should have the speed and technique to keep himself safe in the pocket.

Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool. 

Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time

Carlos Leal OVER 12 Minutes of Fight Time, Mauricio Ruffy UNDER 10.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Armen Petrosyan UNDER 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time

While I don't expect him to come out on top here, Alex Morono has been difficult to put away in the UFC, having only been knocked out late in a bout against Santiago Ponzinibbio and in the opening minute of his bout against Khaos Williams in 2020. The reason for this is likely Morono's awkward striking style and blitzes, which make it hard to hit him cleanly. Unless he can find a perfect counter, Leal should be on the back foot for most of the bout, which should help "The Great White" see the final bell.

Unfortunately for King Green, this fight draws parallels to his bout with Drew Dober, as Ruffy is a whirlwind of offense who possesses plenty of power. It's clear that Green's style of rolling punches with his hands down has become increasingly dangerous with age, and I can't trust him to survive many exchanges backed up against the fence.

The line makers may have been emboldened by the fact that Brunno Ferreira's last fight made it into Round 3, but Abus Magomedov is far from a devastating striker. By contrast, six of Petrosyan's nine wins have come via KO/TKO, and as we saw in his bout against Shara Magomedov, he is willing to give an opponent the type of fight they want.

Bets to Consider

Mairon Santos versus Francis Marshall Goes to Decision (-146)

I generally try to offer a bit more juice on the plays in this section, but this is a nice line at these odds. Santos is an extreme counter-fighter who benefitted in his UFC debut from a bulldozing wrestler who decided to rush forward but has finished less than 60 percent of his 14 wins by knockout. Meanwhile, Marshall has been incredibly durable, with the stoppage loss to Dennis Buzukja being the first knockout of his career. As long as he doesn't get caught cold, this fight should see the scorecards.

For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 313 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section. 

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