This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Denver Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Denver card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Josh Fremd (11-5-0) v. Andre Petroski (10-3-0)
Josh Fremd - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight could be close at times, but I ultimately expect Petroski to have his way with Fremd, given the latter's atrocious takedown defense. There is a slight concern given Fremd's size advantage, but I only see Petroski struggling with it for a short time. Petroski will likely be highly-owned and a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC Denver Pick: Petroski
Montel Jackson (13-2-0) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (14-6-1)
Montel Jackson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Da'Mon Blackshear - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Jackson is the better and more well-rounded fighter, but Blackshear is dangerous when he is on the mat. Aside from getting his neck snatched, I do not envision a way Jackson loses this, and he scores very well in his wins for DFS. Lock him into lineups and watch the magic unfold.
UFC Denver Pick: Jackson
Luana Santos (7-1-0) v. Mariya Agapova (10-4-0)
Luana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Mariya Agapova - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Santos should be one of the safest plays on the slate and should be highly owned in cash lineups, with arguably the easiest matchup on paper. She should be better everywhere, and given Agapova's propensity to have fights end early, I would put my money on Santos finishing her.
UFC Denver Pick: Santos
Jasmine Jasudavicius (10-3-0) v. Fatima Kline (6-0-0)
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 10 wins
Fatima Kline - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Jasudavicius is being entirely disrespected coming in as the dog in this matchup when she has been fighting in the UFC for a while now, and Kline is making her debut. Not only that, but Kline's six MMA wins on her record have little significance. She does have an extensive grappling career, which is what Jasudavicius will need to be ready for. Ultimately, I expect Jasudavicius to be prepared for the grappling and be better everywhere else to pull this one out.
UFC Denver Pick: Jasudavicius
Joshua Van (10-1-0) v. Charles Johnson (15-6-0)
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Van continued his ascension in the UFC with a devastating Round 2 knockout in his most recent fight. Johnson moved his winning streak to two after another decision victory. This fight will likely start close, but I expect Van to take over as the fight goes on. He throws with more volume and power. It is difficult to envision an optimal score from this fight without an early finish.
UFC Denver Pick: Van
Cody Brundage (10-6-0) v. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Abdul Razak Alhassan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I still fully believe Brundage does not belong in the UFC. He had two fluky wins and got right back into the loss column last time out. Alhassan has been up and down, and it is difficult to expect much from him. This fight should come down to the takedown defense of Alhassan and the cardio of Brundage. It's a pure GPP fight, but I expect Alhassan to find the knockout eventually.
UFC Denver Pick: Alhassan
Christian Rodriguez (11-1-0) v. Julian Erosa (29-11-0)
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Julian Erosa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: This feels like a trap fight for DFS and betting. Rodriguez needs only to stand and strike to wrap this one up quickly. Erosa has been knocked out seven times, including twice in his last three fights, and is a massive liability on the feet. He does have a sneaky guillotine, but other than a flash submission, I do not see how he wins this fight. Rodriguez can be fired up as a plus play for GPP contests.
UFC Denver Pick: Rodriguez
Gabriel Bonfim (15-1-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-3-0)
Gabriel Bonfim - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
Ange Loosa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Loosa left a bad taste in UFC fans' mouths last fight, getting a fight called due to a questionable eye poke. He now draws an even tougher matchup in Bonfim. Bonfim will be better everywhere and should control every aspect of this fight. He will be a popular play, and for good reason. I expect him to be dominant and be a plus play for all DFS contests.
UFC Denver Pick: Bonfim
Drew Dober (27-13-0) v. Jean Silva (13-2-0)
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 27 wins
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another step up for the Fighting Nerd Silva, and he should handle it without issue. Dober can be dangerous at times but is very hittable. Silva will be the faster of the two and likely has more power. I expect him to roll with another knockout and will be firing him up for all DFS contests.
UFC Denver Pick: Silva
Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0)
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
Muslim Salikhov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: A battle between aging vets is on tap, and we will likely see 15 minutes of pure striking. I do not expect a lot from this fight, but Ponzinibbio will have the edge in volume with his range advantage. This will likely be low-scoring for DFS purposes and can be safely faded for most contests.
UFC Denver Pick: Ponzinibbio
Rose Namajunas (12-6-0) v. Tracy Cortez (11-1-0)
Rose Namajunas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Tracy Cortez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Cortez is receiving her biggest step up in competition to date. She has fought and won five consecutive fights and is inching her way to a title shot. Namajunas looked reinvigorated in her most recent fight and will be happy ending the hype train. This fight should be closer than some think, at least for three rounds. Cortez has never been in rounds four and five, so her cardio will be a question mark. She will have her moments, but Namajunas should prove too much and come out on top.
UFC Denver Pick: Namajunas
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
