Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
The UFC returns with a 14-fight card chock full of interesting matchups and debuting fighters. We'll break down every bout across three platforms, including a veteran making his long-awaited return, and a middleweight mainstay trying his hand in the welterweight division. Our betting lines are courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Arman Tsarukyan ($9,500)
Tsarukyan is a more complete fighter than the grapplers Dan Hooker has faced recently. "Ahalkalakets" is a fluid striker, with a nice jab to complement his smothering wrestling game. While he will face significant deficits in height and reach, Hooker tends to get backed to the fence, which should result in Tsarukyan controlling where this fight takes place.
Nurullo Aliev ($9,200)
Aliev is a more traditional grappler, lacking a notable standup game. Shaqueme Rock is a powerful puncher, but stands heavy on his front leg and is far too willing to engage in his own wrestling game. This will allow Aliev to get in on his hips at will and bring the fight to the ground.
Denzel Freeman ($8,600)
I was able to track down two of debutante Marek Bujlo's six MMA fights. Both include the Polish fighter getting to a clinch inside the first minute before hitting a takedown that doesn't look like it should work and progressing instantly to mount. From here, he drops elbows on his covering opponent for the victory. Freeman is an athletic wrestler who has fought in credible organizations like the LFA and the PFL, while Bujlo's last opponent was 3-6-0 in professional MMA at the time of their fight. Maybe we will all be blown away by improvements made after signing with the promotion, but it is disappointing that the UFC welcomes fighters like Buljo while refusing to re-sign credible heavyweight talent.
Ismail Naurdiev ($8,500)
Being a physically strong and skilled wrestler was enough to get Ryan Loder through TUF and his UFC debut, but I will not be able to pick him against fighters with any depth until he shows some of his own. Naurdiev will stay on the pressure from the opening bell, punishing Loder for his upright stance with hard low kicks. "Berzdog" should be able to match his opponent for strength, which makes me wonder how Loder will be able to get his wrestling going.
Alex Perez ($7,500)
Lack of depth will come into play once again as we look at Asu Almabayev, who appears to be out of options if he can't control fighters with his wrestling. Alex Perez waits like a coiled spring in the pocket, looking to open up on opponents with heavy striking. Notably, Almabayev isn't an imposing force like Tatsuro Taira, which means he will have to rely on technique. This makes me side with the veteran, who has been in the cage with far tougher competition overall.
Jack Hermansson ($7,200)
Hermansson was a strong middleweight, so it's hard for me to go against him in his move to 170 pounds, where he will not only be physically imposing, but also a tricky submission grappler. Myktybek Orolbai relies on wrestling and toughness to get his hand raised, and while he will put up a big score if he can get his game going, he will also need to navigate significant disadvantages in height and reach.
Kyoji Horiguchi ($7,500)
Horiguchi makes his return to the UFC Octagon nearly a decade after his last win over Ali Bagautinov. The Japanese fighter will bring his trademark agility back to the cage, which should be able to trouble the flatfooted Tagir Ulanbekov. We have seen Horiguici struggle with wrestlers in the past, but I don't think Ulanbekov will be able to track Horiguici down, which should allow him to collapse the distance quickly and score with leg kicks.
Saygid Izagakhmaev ($9,300)
Izagakhmaev does a great job of keeping distance and landing straight shots before exploding into his takedown attempts. Nicolas Dalby has always been tricky thanks to his ability to dart in and out of range, but Izgakhmaev should be able to cut through the noise with his crisp striking and wrestling. Dalby owns just a 58 percent takedown defense rate, meaning that it won't be long until he finds himself on his back.
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev ($9,800)
I'm struggling to find a scenario in which I would pick Raffael Cerqueira to win a UFC fight. While he may be athletic and powerful, he has shown a glass jaw to go along with a 40 percent takedown defense rate. This will leave him little room for error against Yakhyaev, who is defensively responsible and has a dominating game from top position.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on Underdog - Significant Strikes
Volkan Oezdemir UNDER 44.5 Significant Strikes, Shamil Gaziev OVER 24.5 Significant Strikes, and Bekzat Almakhan OVER 25.5 Significant Strikes
Oezdimir has come a long way since the days of "No Time," but he still starts fast enough to surprise Alonzo Menifield, whose chin has been rapidly deteriorating. I expect these two to swing big in the middle of the cage early, which will lead to a finish before this total can be reached.
I'm glad Underdog kept this prop up after grappler Serghei Spivac had to be pulled from the fight. Short-notice replacement Waldo Cortes-Acosta is an athletic striker with excellent takedown defense. While the fight will likely be unexciting, there should be enough time spent in space to clear this total.
Almakhan's line seems to favor an early knockout, but "The Turan Warrior" should be able to use his agility and score early against Aleksandre Topuria, who tends to bide his time while searching for a knockout. Topuria showed how well he can defend takedowns in his UFC debut, which makes me think that Almakhan will lean on his athleticism here.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like Underdog? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Ian Garry Wins via Decision (-105)
Garry's risk-averse style is perfect for a fight against Belal Muhammad, who will attempt to walk in on straight lines and secure takedowns. A height advantage of four inches will allow Garry to skirt around the outside, tagging "Remember The Name" before finding his way back to the center of the cage. Garry probably won't do enough here to separate himself from some of the more exciting up-and-comers at welterweight, but he should be able to use his frame and precise striking to stay ahead in each round.
Luke Riley Wins via KO/TKO (+150)
Bogdan Grad has the wrestling game to potentially give Riley some trouble, but a significant strikes absorbed rate of 5.40 per minute through five UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights does not give me confidence that he will be able to withstand the crisp power punching of the undefeated 26-year-old. Expect Grad to show some flash early before walking on to something hard from the debuting fighter.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Qatar this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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