UFC Rio Oliveira vs. Gamrot DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes

The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Rio card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
UFC Rio Oliveira vs. Gamrot DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
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Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Rio

The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 320 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.

2025 Overall Picks: 281-115-1 ~ Dog Picks 43-32-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Mateusz Gamrot -110
Bet of the Week Record: 21-11-1 +2028
DFS Lock of the Week: Vitor Petrino - 25-5
Fanduel Captain: Petrino/Gamrot

Charles Oliveira (35-11-0) v. Mateusz Gamrot (25-3-0)

Charles Oliveira

  • Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 35 wins (10 KO/TKO, 21 submissions, 4 decisions)
  • Dangerous submission artist with opportunistic striking
  • Can be overwhelmed by heavy pressure and top control

Mateusz Gamrot

  • Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
  • Record: 25 wins (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 12 decisions)
  • Relentless wrestler with elite scrambling and control
  • Excellent cardio and ability to chain takedowns for five rounds

DFS Perspective: Gamrot's wrestling and pace give him a clear path to outwork Oliveira as long as he avoids getting caught in transitions. His ability to chain takedowns and accumulate control time makes him a strong DFS option with both safety and volume. Oliveira remains a threat with his submissions, but Gamrot's grinding style and composure make him the preferred DFS side for a control-heavy win.

UFC Rio Pick: Gamrot

Interested in backing this or other picks seen here on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool. 

Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) v. Montel Jackson (15-2-0)

Deiveson Figueiredo

  • Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 24 wins (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 6 decisions)
  • Former flyweight champion with explosive finishing ability
  • Dangerous in scrambles but showing signs of wear and slower pace

Montel Jackson

  • Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
  • Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
  • Long, powerful striker with strong takedown defense
  • Uses reach and size to control range and punish on counters

DFS Perspective: Jackson's physical advantages, plus his range control, give him the edge if he stays composed and avoids wild exchanges. Figueiredo remains lethal with his power and grappling, but his durability is trending down. Jackson is the preferred DFS side with strong striking volume and finishing potential, while Figueiredo is a risky but live GPP dart for a flash submission or power shot. 

UFC Rio Pick: Jackson

Vicente Luque (23-11-1) v. Joel Alvarez (22-3-0)

Vicente Luque

  • Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 23 wins (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 3 decisions)
  • Durable brawler with strong boxing and sneaky submissions
  • Experienced veteran but starting to show signs of wear

Joel Alvarez

  • Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 22 wins (5 KO/TKO, 17 submissions)
  • Long, dangerous finisher with sharp striking and elite grappling
  • Big frame for the division with serious early-round aggression

DFS Perspective: Alvarez's length, finishing ability and fast starts make him a strong DFS target, especially for early-round upside. Luque's toughness gives him a path to win if it drags out, but Alvarez has the sharper offense and submission threats to end this quickly. My preferred DFS side is Alvarez -- essentially banking on an early finish and high ceiling.

UFC Rio Pick: Alvarez

Jhonata Diniz (9-1-0) v. Mario Pinto (10-0-0)

Jhonata Diniz

  • Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 9 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
  • Heavy striker with a kickboxing base and one-punch stopping power
  • Questionable grappling defense and tendency to fade if dragged deep

Mario Pinto

  • Height: 6'5" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
  • Undefeated heavyweight prospect with fast hands and finishing instincts
  • Still green at the UFC level and untested against elite power

DFS Perspective: This fight screams violence. Both have early knockout potential, but Pinto's youth, speed and momentum make him the better value play. Diniz's experience and power keep him live for a first-round finish, yet Pinto's sharper movement and composure make him the preferred DFS side with strong upside.

UFC Rio Pick: Pinto

Are you behind this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.

Ricardo Ramos (17-7-0) v. Kaan Ofli (11-4-0)

Ricardo Ramos

  • Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 6 decisions)
  • Explosive striker with slick submissions and strong athleticism
  • UFC veteran with major experience and finishing versatility

Kaan Ofli

  • Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 11 wins (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 4 decisions)
  • Solid grappler but untested against high-level opposition
  • Lacks the striking and pace to compete with elite competition

DFS Perspective: Ramos should control this fight everywhere it goes. His experience, striking and submission edge make him a strong DFS play with early-finish potential. Ofli is outmatched skill-for-skill and offers little DFS upside unless Ramos makes a huge mistake. My preferred DFS side is Ramos in a dominant showcase spot.

UFC Rio Pick: Ramos

Lucas Almeida (15-4-0) v. Michael Aswell (10-3-0)

Lucas Almeida

  • Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 15 wins (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 1 decision)
  • Well-rounded finisher with power striking and slick grappling
  • UFC experience and durability make him dangerous in extended fights

Michael Aswell

  • Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
  • UFC newcomer with solid regional success and pressure style
  • Lacks experience against proven competition at this level

DFS Perspective: Almeida has the clear advantage in skill, experience and finishing ability. Aswell brings aggression and power, but he is stepping into a major jump up in competition. The preferred DFS side is Almeida, who has multiple paths to a finish and should be able to handle Aswell's early pressure.

UFC Rio Pick: Almeida

Jafel Filho (16-4-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (8-1-0)

Jafel Filho

  • Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 16 wins (5 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 1 decision)
  • Dangerous grappler with excellent control and finishing instincts
  • Struggles when forced to defend takedowns or deal with faster opponents

Clayton Carpenter

  • Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 8 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions)
  • Fast, well-rounded prospect with slick movement and scrambles
  • Strong submission skills paired with improving striking and defense

DFS Perspective: Carpenter's pace, speed and aggression give him the tools to stay a step ahead of Filho. If he keeps scrambles clean and avoids long grappling exchanges, he can outwork Filho on the feet and in transitions. My preferred DFS side is Carpenter, who offers strong underdog value and potential for a signature win as slight favorite.

UFC Rio Pick: Carpenter

Vitor Petrino (12-2-0) v. Thomas Petersen (10-3-0)

Vitor Petrino

  • Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
  • Explosive power striker with strong athleticism and killer instinct
  • Improving grappling game and confident in close-range exchanges

Thomas Petersen

  • Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
  • Record: 10 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
  • Durable heavyweight with a grinding, wrestling-based style
  • Slower and hittable, struggles with faster, more dynamic opponents

DFS Perspective: Petrino's athleticism, speed and power should give him a clear edge here. Petersen's toughness might buy him time, but his slower movement and defense leave him open for big shots. My preferred DFS side is Petrino, who has multiple knockout paths and a strong chance to finish early.

UFC Rio Pick: Petrino

Irina Alekseeva (5-3-0) v. Beatriz Mesquita (5-0-0)

Irina Alekseeva

  • Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decisions)
  • Decent striker with some grappling experience, but limited defense on the mat
  • Struggles when pressured or forced to fight off her back

Bia Mesquita

  • Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1DQ)
  • Elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with world-class grappling pedigree
  • Still new to MMA but lethal once the fight hits the ground

DFS Perspective: Mesquita's elite grappling gives her a massive edge and clear finishing upside. Alekseeva's experience may help her survive early, but if Mesquita secures a takedown, it's likely over quickly. The DFS pick is Mesquita, who has submission potential and one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

UFC Rio Pick: Mesquita

Lucas Rocha (17-2-0) v. Stewart Nicoll (8-1-0)

Lucas Rocha

  • Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 17 wins (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
  • Explosive striker with dangerous power and finishing instincts
  • Pushes a fast pace and thrives in chaotic exchanges

Stewart Nicoll

  • Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
  • Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and composure
  • Durable but can be caught clean when engaging in brawls

DFS Perspective: Rocha's aggression and knockout power make him the preferred DFS play. If he can force Nicoll into exchanges early, his speed and explosiveness should shine. Nicoll is durable, but Rocha's finishing potential and offensive pace give him the higher ceiling and better upside.

UFC Rio Pick: Rocha

Valter Walker (14-1-0) v. Mohammed Usman (11-4-0)

Valter Walker

  • Height: 6'6" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
  • Massive heavyweight with power, athleticism, and improving grappling
  • Strong finishing instincts and steadily refining his composure

Mohammed Usman

  • Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
  • Durable brawler with solid wrestling and top control
  • Lacks speed and creativity compared to higher-level opponents

DFS Perspective: Walker's size, explosiveness and versatility make him the clear DFS target. Usman's durability could extend the fight, but Walker's power and athletic edge should allow him to dictate the pace and find a finish. Walker is the preferred DFS option, as he has both the higher ceiling and the better all-around skill set.

UFC Rio Pick: Walker

Julia Polastri (13-5-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0)

Julia Polastri

  • Height: 5'2" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 13 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
  • Aggressive striker with solid boxing and dangerous top control
  • Younger, faster, and far more dynamic than most veterans in the division

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

  • Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 16 wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 12 decisions)
  • Technical veteran with great composure and fight IQ
  • Lacks finishing power and often relies on volume striking

DFS Perspective: Polastri's speed, aggression and finishing ability make her the stronger DFS play. Kowalkiewicz's experience could keep her competitive, but her lack of power and declining pace make it hard to match Polastri's output. My preferred DFS side is Polastri, as she has strong potential to finish or dominate on volume.

UFC Rio Pick: Polastri

Saimon Oliveira (18-6-0) v. Luan Lacerda (12-3-0)

Saimon Oliveira

  • Height: 5'4" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 18 wins (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 2 decisions)
  • Aggressive and durable but often reckless in scrambles
  • Can be controlled by more polished grapplers

Luan Lacerda

  • Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
  • Record: 12 wins (10 submissions, 2 decisions)
  • High-level grappler with excellent transitions and control
  • Sharper technically everywhere and improving as a complete mixed martial artist

DFS Perspective: Lacerda appears to be the more composed and technical fighter everywhere this goes. His superior grappling, cleaner setups and ability to control the pace give him both safety and finishing upside. Oliveira's chaos can make him dangerous early, but Lacerda is the preferred DFS side with the tools to dominate on the mat or edge a decision.

UFC Rio Pick: Lacerda

RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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