Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Rio
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 320 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 281-115-1 ~ Dog Picks 43-32-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Mateusz Gamrot -110
Bet of the Week Record: 21-11-1 +2028
DFS Lock of the Week: Vitor Petrino - 25-5
Fanduel Captain: Petrino/Gamrot
Charles Oliveira (35-11-0) v. Mateusz Gamrot (25-3-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 35 wins (10 KO/TKO, 21 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Dangerous submission artist with opportunistic striking
- Can be overwhelmed by heavy pressure and top control
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 25 wins (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Relentless wrestler with elite scrambling and control
- Excellent cardio and ability to chain takedowns for five rounds
DFS Perspective: Gamrot's wrestling and pace give him a clear path to outwork Oliveira as long as he avoids getting caught in transitions. His ability to chain takedowns and accumulate control time makes him a strong DFS option with both safety and volume. Oliveira remains a threat with his submissions, but Gamrot's grinding style and composure make him the preferred DFS side for a control-heavy win.
UFC Rio Pick: Gamrot
Interested in backing this or other picks seen here on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) v. Montel Jackson (15-2-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Former flyweight champion with explosive finishing ability
- Dangerous in scrambles but showing signs of wear and slower pace
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Long, powerful striker with strong takedown defense
- Uses reach and size to control range and punish on counters
DFS Perspective: Jackson's physical advantages, plus his range control, give him the edge if he stays composed and avoids wild exchanges. Figueiredo remains lethal with his power and grappling, but his durability is trending down. Jackson is the preferred DFS side with strong striking volume and finishing potential, while Figueiredo is a risky but live GPP dart for a flash submission or power shot.
UFC Rio Pick: Jackson
Vicente Luque (23-11-1) v. Joel Alvarez (22-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Durable brawler with strong boxing and sneaky submissions
- Experienced veteran but starting to show signs of wear
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (5 KO/TKO, 17 submissions)
- Long, dangerous finisher with sharp striking and elite grappling
- Big frame for the division with serious early-round aggression
DFS Perspective: Alvarez's length, finishing ability and fast starts make him a strong DFS target, especially for early-round upside. Luque's toughness gives him a path to win if it drags out, but Alvarez has the sharper offense and submission threats to end this quickly. My preferred DFS side is Alvarez -- essentially banking on an early finish and high ceiling.
UFC Rio Pick: Alvarez
Jhonata Diniz (9-1-0) v. Mario Pinto (10-0-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
- Heavy striker with a kickboxing base and one-punch stopping power
- Questionable grappling defense and tendency to fade if dragged deep
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Undefeated heavyweight prospect with fast hands and finishing instincts
- Still green at the UFC level and untested against elite power
DFS Perspective: This fight screams violence. Both have early knockout potential, but Pinto's youth, speed and momentum make him the better value play. Diniz's experience and power keep him live for a first-round finish, yet Pinto's sharper movement and composure make him the preferred DFS side with strong upside.
UFC Rio Pick: Pinto
Are you behind this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Ricardo Ramos (17-7-0) v. Kaan Ofli (11-4-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Explosive striker with slick submissions and strong athleticism
- UFC veteran with major experience and finishing versatility
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Solid grappler but untested against high-level opposition
- Lacks the striking and pace to compete with elite competition
DFS Perspective: Ramos should control this fight everywhere it goes. His experience, striking and submission edge make him a strong DFS play with early-finish potential. Ofli is outmatched skill-for-skill and offers little DFS upside unless Ramos makes a huge mistake. My preferred DFS side is Ramos in a dominant showcase spot.
UFC Rio Pick: Ramos
Lucas Almeida (15-4-0) v. Michael Aswell (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded finisher with power striking and slick grappling
- UFC experience and durability make him dangerous in extended fights
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- UFC newcomer with solid regional success and pressure style
- Lacks experience against proven competition at this level
DFS Perspective: Almeida has the clear advantage in skill, experience and finishing ability. Aswell brings aggression and power, but he is stepping into a major jump up in competition. The preferred DFS side is Almeida, who has multiple paths to a finish and should be able to handle Aswell's early pressure.
UFC Rio Pick: Almeida
Update: Images have surfaced of Almeida having complications with his hand. With it being compromised, Aswell is the play and will likely be very popular.
Jafel Filho (16-4-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (5 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 1 decision)
- Dangerous grappler with excellent control and finishing instincts
- Struggles when forced to defend takedowns or deal with faster opponents
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Fast, well-rounded prospect with slick movement and scrambles
- Strong submission skills paired with improving striking and defense
DFS Perspective: Carpenter's pace, speed and aggression give him the tools to stay a step ahead of Filho. If he keeps scrambles clean and avoids long grappling exchanges, he can outwork Filho on the feet and in transitions. My preferred DFS side is Carpenter, who offers strong underdog value and potential for a signature win as slight favorite.
UFC Rio Pick: Carpenter
Vitor Petrino (12-2-0) v. Thomas Petersen (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive power striker with strong athleticism and killer instinct
- Improving grappling game and confident in close-range exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
- Durable heavyweight with a grinding, wrestling-based style
- Slower and hittable, struggles with faster, more dynamic opponents
DFS Perspective: Petrino's athleticism, speed and power should give him a clear edge here. Petersen's toughness might buy him time, but his slower movement and defense leave him open for big shots. My preferred DFS side is Petrino, who has multiple knockout paths and a strong chance to finish early.
UFC Rio Pick: Petrino
Irina Alekseeva (5-3-0) v. Beatriz Mesquita (5-0-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decisions)
- Decent striker with some grappling experience, but limited defense on the mat
- Struggles when pressured or forced to fight off her back
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1DQ)
- Elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with world-class grappling pedigree
- Still new to MMA but lethal once the fight hits the ground
DFS Perspective: Mesquita's elite grappling gives her a massive edge and clear finishing upside. Alekseeva's experience may help her survive early, but if Mesquita secures a takedown, it's likely over quickly. The DFS pick is Mesquita, who has submission potential and one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
UFC Rio Pick: Mesquita
Lucas Rocha (17-2-0) v. Stewart Nicoll (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with dangerous power and finishing instincts
- Pushes a fast pace and thrives in chaotic exchanges
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and composure
- Durable but can be caught clean when engaging in brawls
DFS Perspective: Nicoll's toughness, grappling control, and pace make him the better DFS side. Rocha's power is a threat early, but Nicoll's ability to absorb shots, dictate range, and control position gives him both a higher floor and steady scoring upside. Preferred DFS side is Nicoll, who should outlast and outwork Rocha over three rounds.
UFC Rio Pick: Nicoll
Valter Walker (14-1-0) v. Mohammed Usman (11-4-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Massive heavyweight with power, athleticism, and improving grappling
- Strong finishing instincts and steadily refining his composure
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Durable brawler with solid wrestling and top control
- Lacks speed and creativity compared to higher-level opponents
DFS Perspective: Walker's size, explosiveness and versatility make him the clear DFS target. Usman's durability could extend the fight, but Walker's power and athletic edge should allow him to dictate the pace and find a finish. Walker is the preferred DFS option, as he has both the higher ceiling and the better all-around skill set.
UFC Rio Pick: Walker
Julia Polastri (13-5-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0)
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with solid boxing and dangerous top control
- Younger, faster, and far more dynamic than most veterans in the division
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Technical veteran with great composure and fight IQ
- Lacks finishing power and often relies on volume striking
DFS Perspective: Polastri's speed, aggression and finishing ability make her the stronger DFS play. Kowalkiewicz's experience could keep her competitive, but her lack of power and declining pace make it hard to match Polastri's output. My preferred DFS side is Polastri, as she has strong potential to finish or dominate on volume.
UFC Rio Pick: Polastri
Saimon Oliveira (18-6-0) v. Luan Lacerda (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Aggressive and durable but often reckless in scrambles
- Can be controlled by more polished grapplers
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (10 submissions, 2 decisions)
- High-level grappler with excellent transitions and control
- Sharper technically everywhere and improving as a complete mixed martial artist
DFS Perspective: Lacerda appears to be the more composed and technical fighter everywhere this goes. His superior grappling, cleaner setups and ability to control the pace give him both safety and finishing upside. Oliveira's chaos can make him dangerous early, but Lacerda is the preferred DFS side with the tools to dominate on the mat or edge a decision.
UFC Rio Pick: Lacerda
RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
