UFC 311 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC returns to Saudi Arabia for a more intriguing card than we have seen offered on recent Fight Nights. We'll take a look at every matchup across the 11-bout slate, including a French middleweight looking to take the shine of a former champion, and a lightweight who notches his wins in commanding fashion. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Said Nurmagomedov ($8,700)
Vinicius Oliveira is big and powerful for the weight class, but his wildness will likely be his undoing against Nurmagomedov, who is incredibly technical and has an excellent grappling game. The fact that he will also be able to compete in the speed department means that the Brazilian will need to land a big shot to win, and I hate operating on such slim margins.
Muhammadjon Naimov ($9,000)
I view Kaan Ofli as a worse version of Naimov, a pressuring boxer who wants to push a pace and bring the fight to the floor. Add that "Hillman" will be the physically stronger man, and it's hard to see many paths to victory for the former Ultimate Fighter finalist. I expect Naimov to be a step ahead from the opening bell, resulting in a comprehensive victory.
Shamil Gaziev ($9,300)
Gaziev and Thomas Petersen are both wrestlers, but Gaziev has shown such a strong base that I would be surprised if Petersen can take him off his feet. "The Train" has a shot as an aggressive fighter, as we have seen Gaziev get tired in the past, but he should be able to at least bank two rounds of top control to pick up the win here.
Mike Davis ($8,400)
Davis and Fares Ziam should put on a fan's delight, as both tend to stand in the pocket and throw big shots. However, I have to give an edge to Davis as the more athletic fighter with a functional wrestling game. Given that Ziam was taken down a whopping seven times by a less impressive fighter in Claudio Puelles, it seems likely that "Beast Boy" will be able to use his full complement of skills to put up a nice score.
Nassourdine Imavov ($7,600)
I would have picked Israel Adesanya without much hesitation if this fight had been a few years ago, but the former middleweight champion looked to run out of answers against two fighters in Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, who remained in his face throughout. Imavov has shown the ability to apply suffocating pressure and can also work a wrestling game to keep Adesanya off balance.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Jamal Pogues OVER 58.5 Significant Strikes, Mayra Bueno Silva OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes, and Shara Magomedov UNDER 78.5 Significant Strikes
Hamdy Abdelwahab is an Olympic wrestler but looked every bit as green as his 5-0 record suggests in his debut win over Don'Tale Mayes, which was later overturned due to a failed drug test. The resulting layoff of nearly two years should put him behind the eight ball against Pogues, who is an agile heavyweight with a solid jab and decent takedown defense. Pogues isn't much of a knockout artist by heavyweight standards, but he should be able to accumulate strikes in a lopsided decision win.
Silva may have issues with the size of Jasmine Jasudavicius, but we've often seen two grapplers decide to stand at range, and the Brazilian fighter's pressure should make it difficult for her Canadian counterpart to stay on the front foot. She may need to keep her feet early, but Silva's grappling experience should be enough to threaten submissions and get back to space.
Shara will attempt to do something no one has ever done to Michael Page: outstrike him at range for 15 minutes. "MVP" has such an awkward striking style and command of range that it has always proven difficult to hit him cleanly, so I certainly don't expect "Bullet" to put up dominant numbers here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Lucas Alexander UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Sergei Pavlovich OVER 4.5 Minutes of Fight Time
I don't like the idea of giving brawlers such a large window, as Alexander and Bogdan Grad will look to go to war for the better part of three rounds. Both of these men take plenty of damage, and Alexander, in particular, has had his issues with head movement. This makes me think it won't be long before one of them finds the canvas.
It may seem like a reach to take an over in a Pavlovich fight, but Jair Rozenstruik has a knack for making opponents fight at a slow pace, and we saw a slightly more cautious version of Sergei following his knockout loss to Tom Aspinall, as he went to a decision for the first time in his career against Alexander Volkov in June.
Bets to Consider
Terrance McKinney wins via KO/TKO (+210)
The fact that we get much more juice on the KO than we do for the submission prop (+110) is beyond me, as Hadzovic has only been submitted once in his career, and McKinney has a fairly even spread of KO and submission wins (seven and eight, respectively). This makes me lean heavily on the side of the former, as Hadzovic has not been in the Octagon since 2022, which makes me wonder how he will keep up with the speed of "T.Wrecks."
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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