Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Shanghai
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Shanghai card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 239-92-1 ~ Dog Picks 37-25-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Maheshate +100
Bet of the Week Record: 19-8-1 +2038
DFS Lock of the Week: Sergei Pavlovich - 21-5
Fanduel Captain: Pavlovich/Main Event
Johnny Walker (21-9-0) v. Mingyang Zhang (19-6-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 82" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (16 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive striker with unorthodox offense and dynamic kicks
- Wild defensively and vulnerable to counters and big shots
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (13 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Aggressive power puncher with a strong finishing instinct
- Still raw technically but thrives in brawls and chaos
DFS Perspective: This fight is a must-target, as someone is almost certainly getting finished. Walker is unpredictable and dangerous, but his defensive lapses make him hard to trust. Zhang's power and aggression give him the edge to capitalize on those openings, making him a strong GPP play with knockout upside. Walker is always live early, but Zhang is the pick to get it done.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Zhang
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Brian Ortega (16-4-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16 wins (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Dangerous submission specialist with slick grappling transitions
- Durable and tough, thrives in chaotic scrambles and late moments
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Relentless grappler with smothering top control and pressure
- Striking is still developing, but uses range and pace well
DFS Perspective: This fight being moved to a catchweight is a major red flag for Ortega. He looked awful at weigh-ins, and his durability and gas tank are huge concerns. Sterling already had the style advantage with pressure and control, and now with Ortega compromised, he should dominate. Sterling should be owned everywhere and is a strong play in all formats with potential to break the slate. Ortega is a pure fade given the weight cut concerns.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Sterling
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Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 84" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19 wins (15 KO/TKO, 4 decisions)
- One of the hardest hitters in the division with lightning-fast hands
- Extremely dangerous early, but vulnerable if fights get extended
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 7 decisions)
- Durable heavyweight with high-volume striking and forward pressure
- Not as powerful as Pavlovich, but capable of wearing opponents down
DFS Perspective: This fight almost certainly ends in a finish. Pavlovich has the most dangerous first-round power, but if Cortes-Acosta survives the early storm, his pace and volume can swing the fight. Pavlovich is the better play for an early knockout, while Cortes-Acosta is an intriguing GPP dog with upset potential if he drags this out.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Pavlovich
Su Mudaerji (17-7-0) v. Kevin Borjas (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with lightning-fast hands and knockout power
- Vulnerable on the mat but extremely dangerous standing
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Aggressive puncher with forward pressure and finishing intent
- Limited grappling and defense, relies heavily on striking exchanges
DFS Perspective: Both fighters bring knockout upside, but Mudaerji is the more polished striker and the more dangerous finisher. If this stays on the feet, he should be able to land clean and close the show. Borjas is a GPP dart for an early brawl, but Mudaerji is the side to trust with his speed and power.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Mudaerji
Taiyilake Nueraji (11-1-0) v. Kiefer Crosbie (10-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11 wins (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive striker with big finishing power
- Still raw defensively, but thrives in fast starts
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Tough veteran with solid boxing and forward pressure
- Struggles against faster, more athletic opponents
DFS Perspective: Nueraji brings serious knockout upside and should be favored to land something heavy early. Crosbie has experience but has been vulnerable to power shots, which makes this a dangerous matchup for him. Nueraji is a strong GPP play with first-round finish potential. Crosbie is only viable as a contrarian dart.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Nueraji
Maheshate Hayisaer (10-4-0) v. Gauge Young (9-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Tall lightweight, with sharp, straight punches and knockout power
- Struggles defensively and can be outworked in grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 2 decision)
- Well-rounded skill set with good grappling base
- Struggles against high-volume strikers who keep him at range
DFS Perspective: This fight sets up well for Maheshate if he can keep it standing. His length and striking volume should allow him to control the exchanges, and he carries knockout upside. Young's best path is to get this to the ground and test Maheshate's grappling defense, but that's easier said than done. Maheshate is the side to target for his striking and finish potential, while Young is more of a dart throw for leverage through grappling upside.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Mahashate
Lone'er Kavanagh (9-0-0) v. Charles Johnson (17-7-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Young and explosive striker with sharp combinations
- Still developing, but brings pace and confidence to every fight
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded veteran with strong striking fundamentals
- Struggles when opponents push a higher pace and stay in his face
DFS Perspective: Kavanagh has the tools to make this his breakout performance. If he can pressure early and keep Johnson reacting, his volume and aggression should be enough to win rounds. Johnson is crafty, but he's hittable and has struggled to deal with high-paced striking in the past. It's a strong GPP spot for Kavanagh with upside for a statement win.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Kavanagh
Rong Zhu (26-6-0) v. Austin Hubbard (16-9-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26 wins (14 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 4 decisions, 1DQ)
- Explosive finisher with fast hands and big knockout power
- Still raw defensively and can be inconsistent in extended fights
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Durable grinder with solid boxing and forward pressure
- Lacks finishing ability but can win minutes with volume and control
DFS Perspective: Hubbard is tough and can extend fights, but he's hittable and doesn't have the tools to match Zhu's explosiveness. Zhu's power and finishing instincts keep him live for a knockout or momentum-shifting finish. Zhu is atrong GPP play with upset potential, while Hubbard is lower-upside unless he drags this to a decision.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Zhu
Michel Pereira (31-13-0) v. Kyle Daukaus (15-4-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30 wins (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Unpredictable striker with flashy kicks and dangerous creativity
- Improved cardio and fight IQ in recent performances
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (1 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 3 decision)
- Submission specialist with strong grappling and size advantage
- Struggles defensively on the feet and hittable against power strikers
DFS Perspective: This looks like Pereira's fight to lose. His striking is levels above, and Daukaus has been clipped before. As long as Pereira avoids getting stuck in grappling exchanges, he should dictate the fight with pace and power. The Brazilian is a strong all-format play with finishing upside, while Daukaus is submission-or-bust.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Pereira
Yizha (25-5-0) v. Westin Wilson (17-9-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25 wins (5 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Explosive finishing pedigree, especially on the ground with lots of early subs
- Can be caught in striking exchanges if he's not dialed in
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (5 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Volume striker with background in BJJ and karate
- Fatigue can ride him, and he's sometimes hittable early
DFS Perspective: Yizha is a legitimate finish threat, especially if this hits the mat early. Wilson brings pace and BJJ, but he'll need it fast, or he could gas. If Yizha locks in and pushes pressure, he controls the fight. He is as solid as it gets for DFS.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Yizha
Long Xiao (27-9-0) v. Su Young You (15-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27 wins (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 13 decisions)
- Strong pace, cardio holds up well in longer fights
- Well-rounded with solid boxing and defensive grappling
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Carries knockout power that can change a fight quickly
- Tends to slow down if forced into scrambles or longer exchanges
DFS Perspective: This looks like a close matchup, but I lean Long Xiao. His steadier pace and grappling defense should be enough to neutralize Su Young You's power shots and takedowns. If You can't find the KO or SUB early, Xiao should outwork him for a decision or late finish. In summary, the stronger cash play is Xiao, with You only viable as a GPP dart for the upset KO.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Xiao
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-1-0) v. Uran Satybaldiev (9-1-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Heavy-handed striker with strong pressure and forward pace
- Still developing ground game, but very durable and aggressive
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Balanced skill set with solid grappling and striking mix
- Can be hittable at times and vulnerable against high pressure
DFS Perspective: This should be a competitive fight, but Nurgozhay's power and pace stand out as the difference-maker. If he can keep it standing, his forward pressure could break Satybaldiev down over time. Uran is more well-rounded, so a submission or control-heavy approach is his best path. Nurgozhay is the preferred DFS target with finishing upside, while Uran is more of a contrarian play.
UFC Shanghai Pick: Nurgozhay
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
