After back-to-back shallow slates, the UFC returns with a 12-fight card we can analyze to try and profit in betting and DFS formats. We'll take a look at each bout across four platforms, including a veteran looking to break a losing streak and an underdog who still has some of the quickest kicks in the business. Our betting line this week is from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ashley Yoder ($6,900)
Sure, why not? My flippancy here isn't meant to insult Emily Ducote, only to suggest that she has done nothing in the organization to warrant such a big price discrepancy. Ducote will come into this fight at a reach disadvantage of six inches, which should make it extremely difficult to hang out in the pocket for too long. While she has put some serious volume into her performances, it has come at a price, as we can see from the whopping 8.38 strikes she's absorbed per minute in the Octagon. Yoder can use her leg kicks to keep Ducote at range until she decides to grapple, which could be enough to net her a decision.
Irina Alekseeva ($7,600)
How long can charging forward with no regard for defense until you find a grappling exchange get you wins in the UFC? I'm willing to say at least a bit longer, as tape on Melissa Dixon has shown her susceptible to the exact kind of bullying that "Russian Rhonda" looks to force on all of her opponents. Dixon's ground game has bailed her out in the past, but the mat is the last place she will want to be with Alekseeva, who will never stop hunting for submissions. While Dixon may have the makings of a solid boxer, she looks as though she still needs time to process what's happening in the cage, something that has never been a concern for her opponent.
TJ Brown ($8,800)
I consider Brown to be underrated as a UFC fighter. That's not to say that I think he will be fighting for a title anytime soon, but his pressure, pace, and grappling ability can put his opponents in tough spots. This was the case for Bill Algeo, who looked like he was breaking in front of Brown before "Senor Perfecto" landed a counterpunch that helped close the show. Darren Elkins shares many of these characteristics but is not nearly as slick in ground exchanges and has a trademark durability that now seems to become more suspect with each passing fight. This will almost certainly be a messy action-fest, so an Elkins play can be warranted, but It's hard to pick him against someone I see as a better version of himself at this point in their respective careers.
Andre Petroski ($7,600)
While it is true that we haven't seen Michel Pereira get noticeably tired in the Octagon since his loss to Tristan Connelly, he has also not faced a wrestler so dedicated to pressure and pace as Petroski. While Petroski had begun to fade in his last contest with Gerald Meerschaert, he should be the one doing all the advancing here, keeping the hulking Brazilian fighter on his back foot for much of the bout. This could lead to a dominant Petroski victory or even a late finish.
Tainara Lisboa ($9,400)
This price may be a tough one to get value from, but Lisboa is a powerful combination puncher who isn't afraid to throw herself into a brawl, which could lead to a quick finish. This is particularly true against Ravena Oliveira, who tends to lay back and allow the fight to come to her. Lisboa should have the advantage wherever the fight goes, which could have her primed for her first big point total on DraftKings.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Christian Rodriguez OVER 42.5 Significant Strikes, Jonathan Martinez UNDER 52.5 Significant Strikes, Chris Gutierrez UNDER 63.5 Significant Strikes, and Terrance McKinney UNDER 18.5 Significant Strikes
I expect Rodriguez to try and grapple against Cameron Saaiman, but we've seen the South African fighter can be tricky to take down and even harder to keep on his back. This likely means the two will need to swing at close range, and both are tough enough to see the final bell.
I might take the over on Martinez if I could trust that either man would last long enough for it to clear, but Adrian Yanez has only seen the third round once in his UFC tenure and has only been to the scorecards one time in those six fights. Martinez swings so wildly that he almost can't help but be drawn into a firefight, which should ensure that the judges aren't needed in this one.
I'm not sure you could line a McKinney fight in such a way as to make me play the under short of bringing the strike total to single digits. As it stands, only two of "T. Wrecks'" six UFC bouts have seen him exceed this total, and newcomer Brendon Marotte will likely look to mix it up with him early and control the center of the Octagon. This could lead to a "don't blink" scenario, which will be bad for one of the participants but great for our parlay prospects.
Our final line strikes me as the easiest of the bunch, as both Gutierrez and Heili Alateng can be classed as extreme counterpunchers. Heili has power for the division, so our play can theoretically be ruined with one strike, but Gutierrez is far too defensively responsible for that to be a major concern.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Daniel Lacerda – 2.25 X Multiplier
My rationale here is much the same as when these two met for the first time, as Lacerda's price (or in this case, multiplier) is too enticing to pass up against low-level competition Lacerda has the power, aggressiveness, and grappling ability to trouble opponents for at least a round, and I don't see Edgar Chairez's boxing (or his guillotines), being enough of a threat to stay away from the potential leverage here.
Edson Barboza -2.05 X Multiplier
This pick is born from the fact that there are still very few fighters who can (or have) beaten Barboza in a kickboxing match. While Sodiq Yusuff can sprinkle in his wrestling occasionally, he had a hard time managing the speed and creativity of Arnold Allen, and I don't expect things to get any easier once "Junior" finds his range to land kicks. Unless "Super" has improved a great deal since that bout, this seems like value to me.
Bets to Consider
Jennifer Maia (-110)
Maia has proven to be universally tough to beat thanks to her solid boxing, physical strength, and willingness to wrestle if the situation calls for it. Viviane Araujo will have more weapons as the more prolific kicker in this matchup, but Maia's pressure should work to stifle that offense, leaving her to collect another high-volume decision.
