Maturing means understanding that not every card can be UFC 300. Still, we've got a full complement of bouts on Saturday's slate that prospective bettors and DFS players can select from in an attempt to profit. We'll break down each of the 13 fights, including a late replacement who may surprise as a big underdog and an action fighter who is more than live for a knockout. Our betting lines come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Chris Padilla ($6,900)
A short-notice replacement fighter with six losses on the regional scene generally isn't the ideal candidate for a DraftKings pick, but Padilla's constant pressure and willingness to wrestle should play nicely against James Llontop's counter-striking and desire to fight in the clinch. Given that only half of his 14 wins have come via KO/TKO, I doubt that "Goku" will be a consistent finisher at this level, which makes a fighter as active as "Taco" much more appealing at this price.
Ivana Petrovic ($9,400)
The reasoning applied above can be used to argue for Na Liang, but the Chinese fighter is a known quantity, and what we have seen is a grappler so chaotic that she can often barely answer the bell in Round 2. She will also be at a noticeable strength disadvantage here, which should allow Petrovic to control this fight in any phase. While activity is always promising, Na cannot sustain an attack for very long and isn't much of a threat to finish at this level. This forces me to side with Petrovic, who will likely emerge with a big score once the storm passes.
Jonathan Pearce ($8,600)
David Onama's well-rounded skillset makes him worth a look whenever he's an underdog, but his takedown defense rate of just 45 percent doesn't bode well for a fight with Pearce, who is a strong grappler and a dedicated submission threat. Pearce was forced to wear egg on his face after getting a bit too confident against Joanderson Brito, but Onama has never shown a similar degree of competency on the ground, which should allow Pearce to completely control this bout from close range.
Austin Hubbard ($7,800)
I consider Hubbard and Michal Figlak to be similar fighters, as both are volume boxers with nice footwork. However, Hubbard is a bit better everywhere, as he is more athletic and a solid wrestler and submission grappler. While Figlak will wrestle as well, it appears to be something he does out of necessity rather than a skill that can be used to take over fights. Hubbard floats well on top and is long on experience, which should give him the edge here.
Ketlen Souza ($9,400)
Souza wasn't able to get much done against a top-notch submission grappler in Karine Silva, but Marnic Mann simply doesn't have the style to compete at this level, as she will rush her way in as the undersized fighter and look for sloppy throws. Souza can grapple when she has to, and Mann will put her in so many 50/50 spots that it shouldn't take too long for her to figure out she can win in these exchanges without much risk.
Karine Silva ($8,500)
Silva is more of an opportunistic submission hunter than a takedown artist, but the Brazilian fighter has logged one takedown in each of her three submission victories inside the Octagon. While her ability to stay upright has improved, Ariane Lipski has been taken down at least twice three times in her UFC career and should have very little for "Killer" when the fight hits the ground.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Hayisaer Maheshate OVER 35.5 Significant Strikes, Caio Machado OVER 69.5 Significant Strikes, and Jhonata Diniz UNDER 16.5 Significant Strikes
Maheshate has yet to meet a UFC opponent that will allow him to have a prolonged fight, but Gabriel Benitez may be right in the Goldilocks zone, as he likes to stay on his bicycle and pick apart opponents from range. "Moogly" has had trouble with opponents who constantly bear down on him, but Maheshate isn't a devastating puncher. This should allow for a three-round kickboxing match, which will see more than enough strikes to cover our total.
"High-volume heavyweight" sounds like an oxymoron, but Machado may just be such a fighter, as he has landed more than 6.5 strikes per minute in his UFC (and UFC-adjacent) bouts. Don'Tale Mayes is an athletic kickboxer, and while he may try some awkward grappling to slow the pace in spots, these two men should trade shots for the better part of 15 minutes.
The same can't be said for Austen Lane, who was almost certainly only brought in to be a walkthrough opponent against Greg Hardy on the Contender Series. Somehow, he remains on the roster long after Hardy's departure, but this should be his farewell, as the former NFL player is wide open to absorb shots. Diniz is a committed finisher who will swarm his opponent with strikes, which won't leave much room for Lane to maneuver. Not only do I like this as an under for strikes landed, but DraftKings players should be on the lookout for the Brazilian to nab the bonus for finishing the bout in 60 seconds or less.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Victor Henry UNDER 14.75 Minutes of Fight Time and Matheus Nicolau OVER 20.5 Minutes of Fight Time
If the styles clash here doesn't make for a quick fight, we could be in for an early grind. Henry is one of the most active fighters in the division, having landed a stunning 8.3 significant strikes per minute. Meanwhile, Rani Yahya looks to be your typical aging veteran specialist, as he was knocked out in less than two minutes by Montel Jackson last April. This will likely make Yahya shoot more frantically than usual. The Brazilian is still good enough on the ground to pull off a submission, but if he can't, I expect Henry to put him away after he spends his gas tank trying to bring the fight to the ground. In either case, I think it's generous to assume that the 39-year-old's style can support three rounds at this point in his career.
Before departing due to injury, Alex Perez had a knack for throwing himself into bad positions and getting finished as a result. Be that as it may, the former title challenger gave a decent account of himself against Muhammad Mokaev, keeping up in scrambles and landing a few hard shots. Nicolau has always worked at a slow pace, and Perez has got a chin, having been knocked out only once in his 32-fight career. I think this fight is bound to go the distance, which would leave us plenty of time to spare on our under prop.
Bets to Consider
Bogdan Guskov Wins via KO/TKO (+230)
Guskov's hectic style has produced mixed results in the Octagon, but all of that pressure and power should do well against Ryan Spann, who has never been able to shake his tentative streak in the Octagon. If I could trust "Superman" to wrestle, I would be much more wary about this play, but Spann has secured just one takedown in his last six fights, meaning that he will need to deal with a swarm from his opponent.
Uros Medic Wins via KO/TKO (-109)
Means' slick boxing and aggression can still make him dangerous against the right opponent, but it's hard to believe that opponent is Medic, who will be the far more athletic fighter with the far more active kicking game. Means may once again win the pressure battle, but in this case, that will mean walking into the hard shots of a fast knockout puncher.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Vegas 91 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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