This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Toyota/Save Mart 350
Location: Sonoma, Calif.
Course: Sonoma Raceway
Format: 1.99-mile road course
Laps: 110
Race Preview
Clint Bowyer added another victory to the Stewart-Haas Racing tally two weeks ago in a rain-shortened race at Michigan International Speedway. That weekend, the Ford-powered teams dominated, and the beating will have sent the rest of the garage scurrying to find improvements during the off week. Fantasy owners will see just how much progress has been made when the cars hit the track again this week at Sonoma Raceway. The road course likely won't reveal the true gap Ford maintains as the tight and winding course prioritizes driver ability more than sheer power. That said, Kevin Harvick won this race last season. Fantasy owners should expect a more level playing field this week and seek out drivers who have strong road course pedigrees and show quick lap times early in the weekend's practice and qualifying session. Each of the three engine manufacturers have won here in the last three visits, and the only driver's name to appear on the Sonoma winner's list twice in the past 10 races is Kyle Busch. You have to go all the way back to 2000 to see the last time a driver won consecutive races at the track (Jeff Gordon). That is all to say that some drivers not usually in the mix for a win could likely find their opportunity to grab a victory this weekend.
Key Stats at Sonoma Raceway
• Number of previous races: 29
• Winners from pole: 5
• Winners from top-5 starters: 15
• Winners from top-10 starters: 20
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
• Fastest race: 83.624 mph
Last 10 Sonoma Winners
2017 - Kevin Harvick
2016 - Tony Stewart
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Carl Edwards
2013 - Martin Truex Jr.
2012 - Clint Bowyer
2011 - Kurt Busch
2010 - Jimmie Johnson
2009 - Kasey Kahne
2008 - Kyle Busch
Sonoma Raceway is a natural terrain road course measuring just shy of two miles in length. The track undulates through the northern California hills and drivers will need nimble machines that rotate easily and predictably. Opportunities to pass come at a premium, and pit stops are likely to be the best opportunity to move forward. Track position is exceptionally important at Sonoma, and protecting your position will be keys to a successful afternoon. The long track allows pit stops to occur without fear of losing a lap, but track position will be the primary determinant of when crew chiefs call their drivers in. The challenging course demands drivers be on their game for every turn of the 110-lap race, which can be very fatiguing. That fatigue often produces mistakes and impatience as the race wears on. Those who manage those situations best while making the optimal calls to gain or maintain positive track position will have the best afternoons. Fantasy players should look to drivers who are quick in early practice and qualifying sessions and have a high likelihood of leading many laps. With passing being very difficult, a bad qualifying effort can doom a driver's chances before the race even begins.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $11,700
Kyle Busch - $11,200
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,700
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $9,500
Clint Bowyer - $9,300
Jimmie Johnson - $8,900
Kurt Busch - $8,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
A.J. Allmendinger - $8,000
Jamie McMurray - $7,600
Daniel Suarez - $7,500
Austin Dillon - $7,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Kasey Kahne - $6,600
William Byron - $6,300
Chris Buescher - $6,100
Tommy Drissi - $4,700
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Joey Logano - $9,500
Clint Bowyer - $9,300
Jimmie Johnson - $8,900
Kurt Busch - $8,600
Austin Dillon - $7,100
Kasey Kahne - $6,600
Bypassing the most expensive driver choices for this week's Toyota/Save Mart 350 opens a world of possibilities for fantasy players. Additionally, it isn't much of a gamble to pick some of the non-favorites at Sonoma considering many of the second-tier selections remain just as likely to come out on top as the two favorites. In that vein, we go first with Logano, who has an average Sonoma finish of 12.8 from nine starts, finished 12th at the track last season and has two top-fives from the last three there. Logano comes into this weekend with back-to-back top-10s and has the all-powerful Ford engine at his disposal. Bowyer's win last week required a bit of luck, but at Sonoma he doesn't need the same circumstances. He won here in 2012 and was the runner up last season. While Johnson has been on an upward trend in recent races, Sonoma could be one of his best chances at victory. He won't feel the gap between Ford and Chevrolet nearly as much and could be a surprise having led 12 laps last year before finishing 13th. Surprisingly, Kurt Busch is a huge value play this week. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver is a former Sonoma winner and only finished outside of the top 10 once since he won at the track in 2011. Rounding out the roster is Dillon, who isn't a top-10 prospect but does consistently race better than he qualifies, and Kahne who is working with a new crew chief this weekend. Kahne is fantastic on the road courses, and shouldn't be quite as far behind as normal this week.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $11,700
Kyle Busch - $11,200
Daniel Suarez - $7,500
Ryan Newman - $7,3000
Paul Menard - $6,800
Trevor Bayne - $5,500
While it's a bit more risky to put all your eggs in one basket, there's a way to get two favorites into a lineup for Sonoma without completely reaching to the bottom of the barrel to stay under the salary cap. Harvick and Kyle Busch are likely to be up front again this week, and it isn't a stretch to think either one could stay out front for much of the afternoon on Sunday to take the win. They have three combined Sonoma wins and nine combined victories this season so far. Suarez would be my next recommendation. He has underperformed so far in 2018 but has significant upside on the road courses. He has no top-10s since the All-Star race but should be a top-15 contender throughout this weekend. Newman should be capable of grabbing his fourth top-10 of 2018 this week. He finished 15th at Sonoma last season but had three finishes of 11th or better at the track in the races immediately prior. Menard isn't a driver fantasy players would think of on a road course, but he has upped his game on these tracks over the last few years. His average finish in the last four Sonoma races is 11.3 versus the four races prior to that of 18.3. Bayne arguably has more to prove than anyone else this weekend. He has lost seat time to Kenseth and will lose even more as Kenseth signs up for more races in 2018. Bayne needs to come out with a solid performance this week. His average finish at the track is 25.0, and he will be gunning to significantly outperform that this weekend.
