This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Overton's 400
Location: Joliet, Ill.
Course: Chicagoland Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 267
Race Preview
Martin Truex Jr. added another win to his 2018 tally last week at Sonoma Raceway. The Furniture Row Racing team used their most cunning pit strategy to outfox the other top contenders, which enabled Truex to make a pass for the lead on fresh tires and then cruise to the checkered flag. Truex will be riding a wave of confidence from the victory, and will rest comfortably knowing that he has been the fastest at the Chicagoland oval the last two years. He led for 32 laps in his 2016 win after suffering multiple problems on pit road and then led 77 laps on his way to the 2017 win by more than seven seconds over second place. While his Toyota has been strong here recently it has been Ford standing atop the competition this season. Toyota and Chevrolet have had two weeks to try to eat into that margin, but fantasy players will want to take note of just how close the manufacturers are as practice gets underway on Saturday. Being a 1.5-mile oval, fantasy players will know that lap speed and handling will likely be the foremost factors in determining the winner on Sunday.
Key Stats at Chicagoland Speedway
• Number of previous races: 17
• Winners from pole: 1
• Winners from top-5 starters: 2
• Winners from top-10 starters: 7
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 145.401 mph
Last 10 Chicagoland Winners
2017 - Martin Truex Jr.
2016 - Martin Truex Jr.
2015 - Denny Hamlin
2014 - Brad Keselowski
2013 - Matt Kenseth
2012 - Brad Keselowski
2011 - Tony Stewart
2010 - David Reutimann
2009 - Mark Martin
2008 - Kyle Busch
Like most other 1.5-mile ovals, Chicagoland requires pace and handling to get the job done. Unlike last week's track, the circuit will expose any weakness manufacturers have in relation to one another. Truex has proven that having a fast car here can overcome trouble on pit road, but Kyle Busch's 2017 finish highlights the need to stay on the lead lap. After dominating the first stage last year Busch suffered a loose wheel and speeding penalty that he was never able to overcome. He finished a lap behind the leaders despite having a car that could have contended for the victory. Restarts will also likely be a factor in determining Sunday's winner. They usually are on these track configurations. While some mid to back of the pack teams may try pit strategy to work their way forward, the preference will be for four fresh tires at every stop. Fantasy players should seek out cars that demonstrate top lap speed early in the weekend, especially among the 10-lap average times.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $11,800
Kyle Busch - $11,400
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,900
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $10,000
Clint Bowyer - $9,700
Joey Logano - 9,500
Denny Hamlin - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chase Elliott - $8,500
Ryan Blaney - $8,300
Erik Jones - $7,900
Ryan Newman - $7,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
William Byron - $6,400
Chris Buescher - $6,300
Darrell Wallace Jr. - $6,200
Trevor Bayne - $5,500
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,900
Clint Bowyer - $9,700
Kurt Busch - $8,400
Ryan Blaney - $8,300
Daniel Suarez - $7,500
Landon Cassill - $5,200
There is no doubt that Truex will be an early favorite at Chicago. He's the most recent winner in the series and will be trying for his third consecutive victory at this track. He will likely be a contender on Sunday afternoon, and that makes him a good choice to head a lower-risk lineup. Teammates Kurt Busch and Bowyer would give this option a bit of the Stewart-Haas Racing flavor, which has frequently delivered a very nice fantasy return so far this season. Both are well within playoff contention, and Busch looks likely to score his first win of the season any week now. Both should be highly likely to finish inside the top 10 this weekend. Blaney continues the Ford theme, but spreads the wealth to Penske Racing. He has had his share of frustration this season but continues to be in contention for stage wins, which should translate to a race win in the near future. He finished fourth and 11th in his first two Chicago visits. Suarez has largely underperformed in 2018 so far, but he grabbed his second 15th-place finish in the last five races last week. That may not sound like much, but he's improving, and his speed is starting to show throughout race distances. He finished 12th here last season, and this week's race could become his fifth top-10 of the season so far. Rounding out the selections is Cassill, who has proven to be one of the best part-time fantasy options. His price is always among the lowest, and he almost always delivers positive finish differential points.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $11,400
Brad Keselowski - $10,000
Jimmie Johnson - $8,700
Chase Elliott - $8,500
David Ragan - $5,800
Trevor Bayne - $5,500
Fantasy owners wishing to gamble a bit on Hendrick Motorsports continuing its upward trend will want to take a look at the higher-risk lineup. It's headed by Kyle Busch, who has been on pole three of the last four Chicago races and won it from pole in 2008. His tendency to lead many laps here makes him a valuable fantasy weapon. Keselowski is the top Ford representative in this option. He has two Chicago victories and hasn't finished outside of the top 10 at the track since 2010. The Hendrick contingent is represented by Johnson and Elliott. Both have been gaining confidence and improving their results as the halfway mark of the schedule approaches. Johnson has never won here but he finished eighth last season and led 118 laps the year before. Elliott has raced here twice in the Cup series and his lowest finish was third. He has also led 117 of the 537 laps he has raced at the circuit. Rounding out the higher-risk lineup are Ragan and Bayne. Both have been flirting with top-20 finishes all season and present more confident selections than others in the same price range.
