RaceDayScore NASCAR: Can-Am 500

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Updated on November 11, 2016 11:50AM EST

Can-Am 500

Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix International Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312

Race Preview

Phoenix International Raceway hosts the final race before the season finale at Homestead in two weeks. Carl Edwards joined Jimmie Johnson to make up one half of the four-driver championship contingent that will have a shot at hoisting the Sprint Cup at the end of the finale in Miami, and the other half will be decided this week at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick has been the dominator at the desert oval recently, claiming six of the last eight victories at the circuit. Both he and teammate Kurt Busch are facing must-win scenarios if they intend to battle for the title in Homestead. The other four Chase drivers left fighting for a spot at Homestead are separated by a mere two points in the standings. Every position is going to matter in this week's race, and that raises the stakes as the series undertakes its penultimate race this weekend.

Key Stats at Phoenix International Raceway

• Number of previous races: 40
• Winners from pole: 4
• Winners from top-5 starters: 14
• Winners from top-10 starters: 19
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3
• Fastest race: 118.132 mph

Last 10 Phoenix Winners

2016 spring - Kevin Harvick
2015 fall - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2015 spring - Kevin Harvick
2014 fall - Kevin Harvick
2014 spring - Kevin Harvick
2013 fall - Kevin Harvick
2013 spring - Carl Edwards
2012 fall - Kevin Harvick

The course layout at Phoenix is one of the most unique on the Sprint Cup calendar. The 1.0-mile oval features different turns and banking throughout the course, which causes teams to approach the setup more like a road course than an oval. The track changes as the desert sun beats down on it throughout a race weekend and the buildup of rubber on the racing line will change the level of grip drivers experience throughout the afternoon. Mechanical grip is imperative, and teams will need to remain flexible as their cars change throughout the distance. Those changes make track position late in the race very important. Gambles on pit road can push a driver up the order and earn a top finish from a mediocre machine. That said, pit stops will be crucial and any mistakes could put an end to the hopes of a season for the six remaining Chase contenders looking to fight their way into Homestead.

RACE DAY SCORE VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $60K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Kevin Harvick - $11,700
Brad Keselowski - $11,500
Carl Edwards - $11,000

Tier 2 Values

Kyle Busch - $10,900
Joey Logano - $10,800
Kurt Busch - $10,800
Denny Hamlin - $10,700

Tier 3 Values

Austin Dillon - $9,800
Alex Bowman - $9,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $9,200
Trevor Bayne - $9,100

Long-Shot Values

Danica Patrick - $8,800
Casey Mears - $8,700
Brian Scott - $7,800

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)

Kevin Harvick - $11,700
Denny Hamlin - $10,700
Jimmie Johnson - $10,500
Tony Stewart - $10,100
Greg Biffle - $9,700
Michael Annett - $7,300

With six of the last eight Phoenix wins, it's no question that Kevin Harvick would lead the lower-risk fantasy lineup option this week. He is joined by Denny Hamlin who finished third at the track earlier this year. Jimmie Johnson will be looking to make sure all the pieces are right for Homestead, but he also has four Phoenix wins to his credit. Tony Stewart may be saying farewell to full-time racing in just two weeks, but he would love to go out at the top of his game. He won at Phoenix in 1999 and should be able to grab a top-10 is everything goes well this week. The Ford contingent in this lineup is represented by Greg Biffle. He struggled at Phoenix earlier this season, but the team has made significant improvements to their package since then. He and Michael Annett are confident fantasy selections that should be able to pick up points for either laps led or finish differential while having some potential to pull out a top-15.

Higher-Risk Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)

Carl Edwards - $11,000
Kyle Busch - $10,900
Joey Logano - $10,800
Chase Elliott - $10,400
David Ragan - $8,300
Chris Buescher - $7,800

It is challenging to build a fantasy lineup at Phoenix without Kevin Harvick. His domination at the track has left a number of top contenders all hovering around the same price range. With Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch leading the higher-risk lineup it may not seem as risky. However, Chase Elliott remains relatively unproven at Phoenix and Chris Buescher continues to lack the pace he deserves as a driver in the series. Both Edwards and Busch have won at the track in the past, but the two combined records don't match those of Harvick or Johnson. David Ragan plays an important supporting role with positive finish differential and the possibility of top-20 finishes. Finally, Joey Logano adds another potential victor to the fray. While in total the higher-risk lineup is not as flashy as the one led by Harvick and Johnson, the points should be comparable if these drivers can replicate their past Phoenix successes.