This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I'm refreshed with an open mind heading into Gameweek 11. I took a couple weeks off for my honeymoon and the only soccer I saw took place in Spain. While a La Liga betting column isn't coming any time soon, it still helped to take a step away from the Premier League and enter the next couple months after a tough few weeks in this article.
I'm still up on the season, but my hot start has turned somewhat sour, though with solid overall numbers. My last official play was Liverpool over 1.5 goals in their win at Manchester United and I'll try to ride that into Gameweek 11.
Record: 37-26-3. Up $1,427 on $100 bets.
The Plays
One of my favorite plays this season has been Southampton unders even though that bet went up in flames against Burnley. Prior to that match, just four goals had been scored in four home matches for the Saints and they're coming off a 1-0 away win against Watford. Aston Villa were on my do-not-bet list last month, but I'm removing them for the time being even though they're still a bit of a mystery.
You can get great +100 odds on under 2.5 goals because Villa have been a mess. They've given up 12 goals in their last four matches and Dean Smith is having formation issues. However, I think they'll get back to their roots in this match and play things a little tighter, aided by the return of Tyrone Mings to the starting XI after he was benched last match.
Manchester United are in a similar place to Aston Villa in that they've been so all over the place that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has recently gone to a three-man back line for the first time in his Man United tenure. I'm not sure that's the answer and while recent Manchester derbies have been fairly defensive, I think this one could break the trend. I like Manchester City to win at -145, especially since their over 1.5 goals is at -170. In this same spot a couple weeks ago, Liverpool were -115 to score more than 1.5 goals. I know City are coming off a league loss to Crystal Palace, but that means a bounce back is inevitable for a team not going through a management crisis. For a bit more fun, you can get over 4.5 goals at +370. I think these teams could go off despite recent matchups.
Chelsea weren't on my radar on first look, but they're probably on the best form in the league, winning their last seven matches in league, UCL and Cup play with five of them being shutouts. Burnley have been in some higher-scoring matches against weaker sides, but they've also lost in shutouts to Tottenham and Man City in recent contests. I'm kind of worried that Maxwel Cornet is the spark this team needed, but Chelsea figure to control possession and thwart any counterattack from Cornet and Chris Wood. Chelsea won both meetings a combined 5-0 last season and getting them to win in a shutout at -120 is pretty good.
Leicester City have had an interesting opening few months to the season. They have some nice wins, but they've also struggled in odd instances and they couldn't find a way past Arsenal's back line last league match. I don't think they're playing overly well, but Leeds have been worse and I don't think beating Norwich City says much about them. Norwich played them fairly tight and didn't even allow a corner to Leeds, something I may look at closer to match time, as Leicester are +110 to reach five corners first and under 10.5 corners is +105.
Despite not scoring last match, I think Leicester's attack is what separates these teams with Jamie Vardy and company being a touch more consistent than what Leeds have been without Patrick Bamford. At +150 odds to win, I think Leicester City are the play even though I think both sides have a chance to win. The odds point to goals because of Leicester's back line, but I'm not sure Leeds have enough quality right now to take that over bet.
Arsenal seem to be in a good place, but that's usually when they let their fans down. It was only a few weeks ago they were outplayed at home by Crystal Palace in a 2-2 draw. Watford aren't playing as well as Palace, but they have shown life under Claudio Ranieri. While they lost to Southampton last weekend, I don't think they were outplayed and the lone shot on goal they allowed came out of nothing from Che Adams about 18 yards out.
Arsenal have won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions, so this bet doesn't feel comfortable, but I think it's worth going after because you can get Watford +1 at +140. There's a chance Watford's back line gets smoked and allow three goals in the first half, but there's also a chance Arsenal are nervy in the back against Ismaila Sarr and allow good chances throughout the match. Even if Arsenal score three, I think Watford are in play to score two and I think they could steal a point in this spot, making +140 a good look.
