This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The international break should help a lot of teams, especially those bringing in new managers. Newcastle will get about two full weeks under Eddie Howe, while Aston Villa will have just over a week with Steven Gerrard and Norwich will have less than a week with Dean Smith. It's unclear how much of an upgrade any of them are.
Howe was last seen in the Premier League when he got Bournemouth relegated along with current Newcastle players Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser. On one side of that, Howe was a point off from staying up, but on the other side, guys like Wilson and Fraser were fairly healthy that season and they were still relegated, as the former played in 35 matches. No matter, Howe's tactics led to 65 goals allowed, something that could again be an issue at Newcastle.
Less is known about Gerrard as a manager, but he's often preferred a 4-3-3 with Rangers and that formation could be replicated at Villa. As for Smith, his best Villa teams tended to ride a 4-2-3-1 formation, though as seen this season, he was willing to adjust tactics to the players in his squad.
In managerial changes earlier this season, Watford lost their first match under Claudio Ranieri 5-0, though that was against Liverpool. Tottenham have been a mixed bag under Antonio Conte, winning 3-2 in a wild UECL match and then drawing nil-nil in a somewhat boring trip to Everton.
I don't often like betting matches with new managers and the international break only adds to it. While some managers may have more than a week at their clubs, they'll have maybe only a couple days with players who were traveling for their national teams, which is something that happened with Ranieri.
In the end, this could mean nothing, but I think some of these things are worth pointing out if you're looking to bet these matches.
Record: 39-28-4. Up $1,396 on $100 bets.
The Plays
The more I look at it, the more I like Chelsea to beat Leicester City at -135. This idea came from the injury to Youri Tielemans, as it looks like he won't be ready for this match. Leicester have played just 13 minutes without Tielemans this season and that came in the last game when he picked up this injury. They've already had a nervy start to the season and the last time they played an above average team, they lost 2-0 to Arsenal. If Romelu Lukaku is back, I'd like this bet even more.
I think overs in the Aston Villa-Brighton and Newcastle-Brentford matches are the way to go, but as I said above, it'll be hard to bet these matches, especially without seeing the starting XIs. If you really want to bet something, I think taking over in Howe's first match is the way to go and you can get over 2.5 goals at -105 despite 'Yes' on both teams to score being -140.
I'm again going with Watford in a lame +1 bet (+105). I took the same thing against Arsenal two weeks ago and Watford did enough to get my money back. The thing for me is that Watford have looked mostly respectable the last three matches. They've lost their last two, but I wouldn't say Arsenal and Southampton completely dominated them in 1-0 wins. There's always a chance Man United suddenly catch fire and bag five goals behind Cristiano Ronaldo, but until their form changes, I'll continue to bet against them. Watford +1 is at +105, which is pretty good odds because the only way you'll lose this bet is if United win by multiple goals.
Norwich City aren't in the same spot as the other teams adding new managers. Daniel Farke had been there for over four years and built a system around him. Now, sitting bottom of the table with a limited roster, Norwich weren't really a sought-after job. Still, I think there is value because the odds are juiced for Norwich to allow three-plus goals. You can get under 2.5 goals at -115, but I'll go with the slightly better odds and take 'No' on both teams to score at +110.
For the most part, Southampton unders have been good to me. While the results have been a bit more positive at home, they've held clean sheets in two of their last three trips, with one of them being against Man City and the lone loss being at Chelsea. Norwich got their win before the break, but I'm not sure that changes anything for their confidence despite Dean Smith bringing in Premier League experience. Southampton will continue their strategy to score first and then go full defensive to get the 1-0 win. They've done that in three of their last four matches and there has been one goal or fewer in six of their last eight.
I've had a hard time reading Wolves this season. They've kept the same formation as prior seasons, but the results have been a bit all over. They racked up expected goals but no real goals in early matches and now they've kind of lost that defensive identity. They've given up at least four shots on goal to each of their prior four opponents and it's not like they've faced the best attacks in the league. Now, against West Ham, who are above Liverpool in the table, it's hard to see them not allowing multiple goals.
The big thing with taking over 2.5 goals at +100 is that Wolves may need to score because a 2-0 result is a loser. Instead of falling prey to that, I'm going West Ham over 1.5 goals at +130. I like the Hammers. They've scored multiple goals in three of five away matches this season, which is enough for me. Wolves haven't been limiting opponent's chances enough and I think that'll lead to numerous opportunities for Michail Antonio and company to hit the back of the net.
I wasn't initially going to parlay Liverpool and Manchester City, but after looking at some numbers, I think I'll risk it. My original plan was to take Man City -2 at +100 against Everton, which is still a good idea. However, instead of needing three goals to actually win the bet, I'll go Man City -1.5, meaning a two-goal win hits. I'm kind of worried about how defensive Everton have been, but they've been bad away from home.
For my other piece, I'll take Liverpool to beat Arsenal at -215. Arsenal are playing well and everything, but they haven't played a top team since the early-season debacles against Man City and Chelsea. Even in a down campaign, Liverpool won these meetings by a combined 6-1 score line last season and I think this is a perfect rebound spot for them.
Combine Man City -1.5 at -210 with Liverpool ML at -215 and you get +116 for a nice two-day parlay.
